Another month to go: can we bear it? Brainless dishonesty, puerile insults, false accusations, the whole charade takes us for idiots. The more desperate they get, the lower the Tories drag down the tone of debate.
The week begins “woke”, with Kemi Badenoch challenging Labour to follow her into an anti-trans gesture to change the Equality Act to something the law already broadly does. It looks glaringly empty in the worsening cost of living crisis, when an extra 100,000 households will see their mortgages shoot up between now and election day.
Labour seeks to shrug off these diversions as it evades Tory attacks, while methodically staying calm and attempting to stay on message.
And for Rishi Sunak, the woke thing is a tough sell. Voters will not easily be persuaded that Keir Starmer is secretly a snowflake warrior while he talks defence of the realm, nailing down that “triple lock” on nuclear weapons, and promising that nuclear submarines will be built in Barrow. All that tells the electorate is that this party is no longer led by a man who refused to sing the national anthem at a Battle of Britain remembrance service.
Immigration is on Labour’s grid, too, with the plan to bring it down by boosting skills training at home. Forecasters expect it to fall anyway. So Keir the woke warrior? Good luck with that.
It may seem an age already, but voters are not yet concentrating on the election, say the focus-groupers. If you, the reader of political columns, are bored rigid by hearing of Starmer’s toolmaker dad and nurse mum, it remains true that most voters still say they don’t really know him. So, in Tuesday’s TV debate between the leaders, expect Starmer to use every chance to describe himself. Most voters don’t watch prime minister’s questions, so they’ll observe these head-butting duels with a fresh eye. Neither leader floats like a butterfly or stings like a bee, but Starmer usually prevails. Sunak plans to exploit some kind of underdog status, but that too is a tough sell when he is PM, he was chancellor, he is so obviously vulnerable on every flank and so clearly to blame – in full or part – for everything ill-fated in these wretched Tory years.
The runes are being read. Both parties were alarmed by the mighty electoral calculus MRP poll predicting just 66 seats for the Tories. It raised no cheers in the Labour camp, where there is gnawing fear that complacency will stop too many people from bothering to vote, or will give potential Labour voters licence to vote Green. It could also complicate the calculation in “blue wall” seats, where Labour people need to turn out and, as a way to oust the Tories, vote Liberal Democrat.
But that same poll caused flat panic in the Tory camp, where the campaign seems solely focused on stemming the flow of rightwingers to the hardline church of Reform. That panic will heighten after the screeching U-turn on Monday in which Nigel Farage took control of Reform and deigned to run as an MP, hoping it will be eighth time lucky. Sunak and his chancellor beseech elderly voters with wafted pension bribes, and tickle their fancies with absurd plans to force national service on Britain’s young people. Badenoch’s transgender pitch was a ploy to discomfort Labour, but more than that, it was a desperate attempt to head off further defections by those who prefer their extremism full fat rather than semi skimmed.
In many ways, this is the election we expected. But that is not the same thing as saying that – on the evidence so far – this is the election we deserve.
Amid the promises, there needs to be a reality check, not least about the public finances. In the Financial Times last week, the International Monetary Fund exposed the hitherto unmentioned, and unmentionable, gaping £30bn hole awaiting the next chancellor. A field of fiscal landmines has been laid by Jeremy Hunt, with zero expectation he will ever be expected to navigate them. One report suggests he sees a nicer post-election life for himself presenting at Classic FM. So be it: so long as they don’t let him present the financial reports.
Both parties in this election pretend not to hear the voice of Paul Johnson, truth-teller-in-chief at the Institute for Fiscal Studies, who warns that pledges of no new taxes and no spending cuts, while shrinking the national debt, are impossible to fulfil. Labour ignores him for now, promising to clear the backlog of people waiting more than 18 weeks for treatment, and raise employment from 75% to 80%, though Johnson warns “we never got close” to that rate. We need a reality check. We’re getting magical thinking.
Think, too, about all the issues that aren’t being properly addressed in this election yet. Brexit is parked, with Labour keen to avoid accusations of cosying up to the EU, and the Tories desperate to hide from their Brexit failures.
Also missing in action: social care, the plight of the 1.6 million frail people denied the help they need. Both parties bear the scars of Theresa May’s 2017 election plan and Andy Burnham’s 2010 scheme, both of which exploded mid-campaign.
The burning planet should be the burning question but it isn’t, despite Labour rightly making green energy its engine for growth and its prime spending priority. Sunak ditched net zero, warning: “Labour’s decarbonisation proposals will cost £3,297 per household.” That’s Toryism at its most despicable, lying about the need for climate action for no electoral gain. But one way or another, we should be talking about it.
Here we are again, at the pinnacle of our democratic process and yet, again, failing to find a way to grapple honestly with the great issues. Democracy is worshipped, but its potential is eroded and its practitioners reviled. Whose fault is that? MPs or the public? Voters who think they stand aloof from “lying” politicians might ask themselves how much they are to blame for demanding the impossible – Swedish-level public services on US-level tax rates.
I don’t blame Labour for this; it is up against the great Tory lie factory. Always facing that wall of sound from the howling, dominant Tory media – its volume turned up now by GB News. The wonder is that Labour ever gets a hearing, ever wins elections. If it is staying muted now, the process makes that sensible, because discussing difficult dilemmas thoughtfully would do little more than provide ammunition for the enemy. After years in opposition, an election – in this Britain, at this time – is a perilous moment for Labour to seek to reshape the entire way we do politics.
With polls swinging strongly towards a Labour win and a social democratic future, with voters apparently ready to rebel against the devastations of austerity, maybe there is scope for boldness. Maybe Labour should trust polls showing that a majority would pay more tax to revive public services. Maybe it should be more expansive in the knowledge that voters broadly agree with the party over Brexit, tax, social care, poverty, benefits and the climate.
But, with a great victory within grasp and the chance of a different future for this country, is it reasonable to demand that it take that risk?
Polly Toynbee is a Guardian columnist
