Aid agencies in Gaza are bracing for chaotic scenes this week as hundreds of thousands of people try to return to homes in the territory after the expected implementation of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas on Sunday.
Before the ceasefire, which is due to begin at 8.30am local time, Israel has continued to carry out attacks inside Gaza. The local health ministry claimed on Saturday that 23 Palestinians had been killed in the previous 24 hours, while the Israeli army said it had conducted strikes on 50 “terror targets” on Friday.
The deal, for which both the outgoing US president, Joe Biden, and his successor, Donald Trump, have claimed credit, was finally ratified by Israel’s cabinet in the early hours of Saturday morning.
In a sign of the precarious nature of the deal, the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, said on Saturday evening that the ceasefire would not come into force until Hamas had revealed the names of the hostages it intended to hand over.
The far-right national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, announced his intention to resign from the government on Saturday and withdraw his party from the coalition on Sunday in protest at the deal.
In a press conference on Saturday evening, Netanyahu said Israel retained the “right to return to fighting if needed” in Gaza and claimed to have Trump’s support.
The prime minister said the US had promised Israel would have the weaponry it needed to return to fighting if necessary, and would do so “in new ways and with very great power”.
Three Israeli hostages are set to be returned on Sunday, while about 95 Palestinian prisoners will be released in the first of several rounds of swaps set to take place over the coming six weeks.
Under the terms of the agreement, the Israel Defense Forces will not withdraw from Gaza until all hostages are returned, a process that is likely to take months. But Palestinian residents, most of whom have been displaced after 15 months of war, will be allowed to return to the north.
Many will be searching for missing relatives, or seeking to retrieve the remains of family members who have been buried under rubble – sometimes for several months.
Muhammad Alyan, 57, was forced from his home in Beit Lahiya, northern Gaza, early in the conflict. A previous attempt to return to his house ended when many of his family were killed. “We heard the news of the ceasefire with joy mixed with sadness for the dead and wounded,” he said.
“I am waiting for the moment when we are able to get back to northern Gaza so that I can get my two daughters and my wife out from under the rubble of our house and bury them with dignity. Forty days have passed since they were targeted, and this is a very difficult and unbearable feeling,” said Alyan, who is living in the central city of Deir al-Balah.
More than 46,700 Palestinians, mostly civilians, have died since the Israeli offensive began 15 months ago, according to the local health ministry. Hamas militants killed about 1,200 people, the majority of them civilians, and took approximately 250 hostages during the raid into Israel on 7 October 2023 that triggered the war.
Local health authorities have said about 12,000 people may remain unburied in rubble left by bombardments and clashes. There is no independent confirmation of the figure, but humanitarian officials in Gaza judge it “credible”.
There will be intense monitoring of the deal, with the mediators keeping “constant communication lines open” to protect the agreement. The ceasefire in late 2023 was violated by both parties, but mediators managed to prevent escalation to a level that collapsed it. They are on standby to do the same now if needed, aiming to ensure that the already tense negotiations about the next phase are not jeopardised by events on the ground.
A key condition of the first phase of the ceasefire-for-hostages deal approved by Israel and Hamas is free movement for Palestinians within Gaza. But during the first of the ceasefire’s three phases, Israeli forces will maintain their system of checkpoints throughout much of the territory – especially those along what is known as the Netzarim corridor, which cuts Gaza into a northern and southern half.
The corridor is heavily defended by Israeli strongpoints and has blocked movement within the territory for many months. Aid agencies have frequently struggled to cross it, or even to bring vital supplies to hospitals in the north or evacuate wounded.
Aid officials say they anticipate growing numbers will be on the move if the ceasefire holds. About 90% of the 2.3 million prewar population has been displaced, many of them several times. Israel’s campaign of intense aerial bombing and mass demolitions has levelled swathes of Gaza and left whole neighbourhoods barely habitable. Nine out of 10 homes have been damaged or destroyed, the latest UN figures reveal. “Some people know their homes are completely gone but there are thousands upon thousands who know the building is still standing but will want to go and find out if it is habitable,” said a humanitarian official in Gaza.
The biggest movement is expected from southern Gaza to the north, but also elsewhere as people head from the coast towards Rafah or Khan Younis in the south. Aid agencies believe many families will first send someone to establish what is left of their home and whether it has been occupied by other people.
“The challenge will be the scale of the movement and how easy it will be for people to cross the Netzarim checkpoint. We don’t have precise details at the moment of how that will happen and it is likely to be very crowded,” said Sam Rose, director in Gaza of the UN relief and works agency (Unrwa), the main refugee organisation for Palestinians.
“Most families will want to keep a foothold in the south; most who know there is something left will want to send family members back to secure the property and eventually rebuild. This will all be happening when the roads will be full of aid trucks.”
Although prices of basics such as flour have dropped by as much as two-thirds since the news of the ceasefire broke last week, many people still cannot afford fresh vegetables and fruit, with aid agencies saying that malnutrition is widespread. Few children in Gaza now have shoes.
Muhammad al-Hebbil, 37, said he was hoping to return to Beit Lahia from the tented camp that has been an uncomfortable makeshift home with his family in Gaza City. “When the ceasefire starts, I will be the first to set off for Beit Lahia. I will kiss the ground of my beloved city and whatever is left of our houses, and inspect our homes, our belongings. Maybe I can find something to remind me of our lives before,” he said.
Others were hoping to reunite with relatives they have not seen for months. “The first thing I will do after the start of ceasefire is to go back to see what happened to every place I knew and loved. I want to see my friends for the first time in 15 months,” said Eman, 19, a first-year medical student from Jabaliya, a northern neighbourhood that has been the scene of an Israeli blockade and fierce fighting.
Fulla Masri, a 33-year-old, wanted to see the family of her husband, who was killed in November 2023. Twenty relatives and friends were also killed, and her house destroyed, later in the war. “What matters most to me now is to know my relatives are safe … We are very eager to return to the north and reunite with them,” said Masri.
“God willing, the beautiful days will return and God will compensate us for what we have lost.”
