The forecast for this weekend's Paris-Roubaix is changing all the time, with nailed on rain turning into potential showers, but there is still a strong possibility for the first wet spring Roubaix in 20 years this Sunday.
31 years ago, Sean Yates - then riding for Motorola - finished fifth in a memorably damp edition of the Hell of the North, behind Andei Tchmil, and told Cycling Weekly this week that he hopes for rain on Sunday, to add a bit of "excitement" to an already brutal race.
"A bad weather day is not good for spectators out there, but will add a bit of a change considering the weather so far this year and in recent years too," Yates explained. "Paris-Roubaix being such an epic, you want epic conditions. We know [Tadej] Pogačar is the fastest and stronger, but we want a bit more excitement thrown in there."
The Tour of Flanders last weekend was raced in near-perfect conditions, with barely a cloud in the sky, weather that has been seen at many of the cobbled Classics already this year; different weather would certainly shake things up. There is good weather forecast for Paris-Roubaix Femmes on Saturday.
"As a spectator I hope it rains, and it seems in recent years that they have all been riding round in the blazing sunshine in short sleeves, which traditionally doesn’t seem right," Yates said. "I think it’ll definitely add an extra element if the weather turns a bit nasty. That will be the first time this year up north on the cobbles, and it makes it a little bit easier for the pure specialists and a bit more selective.
"Ultimately, it doesn’t affect the outcome unless you crash because of the wet. The guys who we’re talking about - [Wout] van Aert, [Mathieu] van der Poel, [Jasper] Philipsen, they'll be there no matter what.
"Pogačar… he’s not a slouch, and he’s ridden cyclo-cross, so I don’t think that it will affect his chances," he continued. "He’s physically superior, to many , that when you're not having to ride on the limit you have more time to make judgments, concentrate on problems. It’s when you're on the limit that you make mistakes and you rush into a corner because you've lost the wheel. I would say he’s no slouch, but technically, Van der Poel and Van Aert have an advantage. Ultimately, it’s the power that matters."
For the riders who are already cobble specialists, there is little to fear from slippier cobbles, but it could see the race blowing apart earlier.
"The good guys look forward to it because there will be less guys getting in the way," Yates argued. "1994, that year, horrendous weather, after the first couple of sectors there were only 10 guys in the race who can handle their bikes in these conditions, so I knew I needed to be up there. Guys were going off left and right…
"Tech has changed, so the equipment they’re using copes better in the conditions, but still, when everyone is on the ragged edge, getting desperate, shooting down the outside, and they hit a puddle and there’s going to be consequences. The guys in control can be much more selective."
"Wet cobbles are slippery no matter what you use," he continued. "There’s little room for error."
For Yates, along with Visma-Lease a Bike's Van Aert, Alpecin-Deceuninck's Van der Poel and Philipsen, Mads Pedersen of Lidl Trek is also a rider to look out for on the cobbles. "Pedersen is just a tank, and coming from Denmark, they’re used to that, hard as nails. I think it’s going to be the usual suspects," he said.
"Everyone is talking about Pogačar [of UAE Team Emirates], but I think his luck is going to run out," Yates said. "You can have experience and bad luck, and I wouldn’t wish it on him… Roubaix is a completely different kettle of fish. Watts per kilo don’t count."
"I think it’s going to be tight," he concluded. "I fancy [Ineos Grenadiers' Filippo] Ganna. He doesn't have mega experience, and his bike handling might not be up there like the other guys, but certainly I can see him on the podium. Josh Tarling too, he has all the attributes, one for the future."
