Trends and technologies come and go. Indeed, as the resurgence of vinyl records in recent years has shown, things that were once deemed old hat can perform shocking resurrections.
With that in mind, guitarist and YouTuber Rhett Shull has delivered a hot take concerning the future of amp modelers, boldly predicting that the tube amps they're currently replacing will see a big resurgence at some point in the future.
Speaking on the Dipped In Tone podcast, Shull's sentiments came as a reaction to Reverb's best-selling gear of 2024. Specifically, he was reacting to the fact that no tube amps made it into the retailer's top 20 best-selling amps of the year.
Instead, the likes of Neural DSP, Line 6, Positive Grid and Boss all edged out traditional competition as the modeler market dominated proceedings.
“It's interesting because if you go back to 2019, it was completely flipped,” says Reverb's data analyst Cyril Nigg, setting the scene. “The top sellers at that time were the Blues Junior, Deluxe Reverb, and AC15s. It was mostly traditional amps with Boss Katanas in there.”
The top five amps in 2024, meanwhile, solely comprised modelers, with the Quad Cortex, Positive Grid's Spark, the Line 6 Helix, Universal Audio’s OX Box, and the Boss Katana making up the top spots.
“I'm not gonna lie, this does break my heart,” Shull admits when faced with that fact. “I'm a dyed-in-the-wool tube amp guy, and I'm gonna die on this hill. I don't care if all of the guitar internet hates me for this: I cannot wait for this pendulum to swing back towards tube amps, which it will. Mark my words, viewer – it will.”
While Zach Broyles of Mythos Pedals responds with a fierce shake of the head, Shull continues to make his case, saying: “Something will happen, 15 or 20 years from now. People I think will eventually go back to some kind of tube amp.”
His belief, while staunchly defended, looks even more bold as we enter 2025, with Cyril further revealing that no product in the top 20 of 2024’s best-selling amps list was tube-driven. Vox’s AC15, down the pecking order in the 22nd spot, is the first tube amp to crop up.
“I do like modelers, I'm half joking. I've used them, I've toured with them. They're great tools. They have a place,” Shull goes on. “But, come on, guys. When you're all using the same piece of gear – I know people's presets are different and you're using different captures – you kind of do all sound the same.”
It is an interesting observation to say the least, especially when one throws the “tone is in the hands” argument into the mix.
“I don't know when it [the metaphorical pendulum] will swing back,” contests Broyles. “I think it's going to get more and more niche. I think modelers are going to get better.”
The current rise of mini modelers seems to back that point up. In 2024, bitesize offerings came to the market via the Nano Cortex and the Kemper Player Profiler after IK Multimedia set the tone with the ToneX One.
That's not to mention all the big-name players, from The Edge to Jim Root, that have gradually jumped from traditional to digital amps and modelers in a bid to curate sleeker touring rigs.
Perhaps the industry needs to take a mental note of this debate and check back two decades from now. Will tube amps be a distant memory, or will they be pushing air in studios and venues worldwide as digital amps are left to reminisce on their bygone glory days with cassettes and Gibson’s robot tuners? Only time will tell.
