A disturbance out in the Atlantic has increased odds of becoming the first named storm of 2021 before the end of this week.
A non-tropical low pressure system is forecast to develop late Thursday afternoon northeast of Bermuda, according to the National Hurricane Center’s 2 p.m. forecast. The system has a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm in the next 48 hours and a 40% chance of doing so in the next five days.
The system is expected to gain some momentum as it moves southwest over warmer water Friday and become a short-lived subtropical cyclone over the weekend. However, meteorologists expect the storm to weaken as it heads north into hostile environment by Monday, said Eric Blake, an NHC hurricane specialist.
Should the May storm develop, it would form several days before the start of hurricane season June 1 and receive the name Ana.
AccuWeather and Colorado State University have both predicted the 2021 season to be above average. The NHC has not issued its preseason forecast at this time, but director Ken Graham said last week during a press meeting that all signs are pointing to an active season.
“Early readings, such as warm surface ocean temperatures, are pointing toward an active season,” Graham said.
Last year, two storms, Arthur and Bertha, formed ahead of the 2020 season, which begins June 1. Both formed off Florida’s east coast. Arthur skirted by the peninsula as a tropical depression and formed into a tropical storm later out in the mid-Atlantic. Bertha flew over Florida’s east coast as a tropical depression and then later gained enough steam to become a tropical storm before making landfall over South Carolina.
