The Hunter's peak business group has warned the productivity of region's industrial power users will be threatened unless more baseload generation comes on line in the near future.
In 2021 there were no forecast reliability gaps in NSW identified for the next five years. The state is now among three regions that have been warned of energy shortfalls in coming years.
"The recent experience suggests that if the forecast is realised, we can anticipate more calls on businesses to load shed and also the likelihood of continued instability in the price of energy which will impact business and the community more widely," Business Hunter chief executive Bob Hawes said.
It follows last week's Australian Electricity Market Operator (AEMO) Electricity Statement of Opportunities that urged all levels of government to deliver renewable energy and transmission projects as fast as possible to maintain a reliable electricity supply.
The Muswellbrook pumped hydro project is among the projects that are planned but not due to come online by the time several coal-fired generators, including Eraring, retire.
"The transition to renewables to produce firmed energy capacity is simply not happening quick enough," Mr Hawes said.
"It's clear that bringing forward the closure of Eraring to 2025 is going to place enormous pressure on the system. There is not a well understood pipeline of developing and commissionable projects of firmed renewables or clear outcomes in new investment in the transmission system to give the market the confidence it needs in the shadow of the closure of the coal fired power stations over the next 5 to 10 years."
Port Waratah Coal Services chief executive Hennie du Plooy said the business, like many large power consumers, was dependent on firmed baseload power.
"We don't have unique concerns but like every industry in the region we need a reliable and affordable electricity supply during the transition," he said.
AEMO estimates about 45gigawatts of new wind, solar and "firming" investment that will be required to compensate for the expected exit of most of the country's coal generators.
"The (Electricity Statement of Opportunities) report reiterates the urgency of progressing generation, storage and transmission developments to maintain a secure, reliable and affordable supply of electricity to homes and businesses," AEMO CEO Daniel Westerman said.
"Forecast reliability gaps have emerged across National Energy Market regions due to considerable coal and gas plant closures, along with insufficient new generation commitments needed to offset higher electricity use."
Mr Hawes said every megawatt hour that did not require a 'generation solution' would help ease pressure on the system and make the infrastructure delivery challenge more achievable.
"However, this option is simply not available to many of our big users of power for a variety of valid reasons," Mr Hawes said.
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