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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Andrew Sparrow

Humza Yousaf says he’s ‘very confident’ of winning no confidence vote and he will ‘compromise’ with critics – as it happened

First minister Humza Yousaf speaking to the media during a visit to a housing development in Dundee.
First minister Humza Yousaf speaking to the media during a visit to a housing development in Dundee. Photograph: Andrew Milligan/PA

Afternoon summary

  • Humza Yousaf has said he will not resign as Scottish first minister after 24 hours of intense speculation about his leadership. In a series of media interviews, he insisted he was confident of retaining his position when MSPs vote on his future next week, while also insisting that he wanted to reach an accommodation with his critics. Yousaf faces two votes next week; after the Tories yesterday said they were tabling a no confidence motion in Yousaf personally, Labour today said they were tabling one in the government as a whole. Arguably this is more serious, because Yousaf and his government would be legally obliged to resign if they lost this one, and it could force an early election. But with Alba, whose one MSP holds the swing vote in parliament, opposed to the Labour motion, it seems unlikely to pass. With some MSPs claiming he will never be able to recover the authority he needs to lead his party, the personal no confidence vote poses more of a threat and Ash Regan, the Alba MSP, has indicated that she expects substantial concessions if Yousaf wants to get her vote. (See 3.55pm.)

  • Downing Street has said it is “too early” to say whether the Rwanda Act is having a deterrent effect. (See 12.43pm.) No 10 was responding to reports that Micheál Martin, the Irish tánaiste (deputy PM), has blamed it for asylum seekers travelling to Ireland from Northern Ireland.

Updated

Alba MSP Ash Regan suggests Yousaf needs to invest in Grangemouth refinery to win her vote in no confidence motion

Ash Regan, the Alba party MSP, may be raising the price Humza Yousaf will have to pay to secure her support in the no confidence vote next week. In a letter released this morning she focused on Scottish independence, protection for women, and governance issues. (See 9.50am.)

Now, according to PA Media, Regan has suggested investment in the Grangemouth refinery could be a price of her support for Yousaf in the confidence vote. As PA reports, in a letter to party members Regan said investment in the refinery – due to shut as early as next year and shift to an import and export terminal – would be a key demand for her support for Yousaf. Alba has launched a campaign to sustain jobs at the refinery.

Regan said:

A sign of good faith would be a significant government investment, reinforcing the campaign to save the Grangemouth refinery from closure.

I am requesting the undertaking to produce such an initiative in the early course.

I am hopeful that the first minister will commit to such an initiative in the near future as a sign of our shared dedication to Scotland’s welfare.

Douglas Ross, the Scottish Conservative leader, has said that his party will support Labour’s motion expressing no confidence in the Scottish government. He told Times Radio:

I want to remove the entire Scottish government. They have been focused on independence above everything else. Our health service has suffered, our education system has suffered, our funding for local government has been cut to the bone, all while the SNP have obsessed about independence above the priorities of people across Scotland.

But Ross also suggested that, because the Scottish Greens have not said they will back the Labour no confidence motion, it would fail. Ross suggested that the Conservative no confidence motion, into Humza Yousaf personally, had a better chance of success. He said:

Ultimately we are on the brink of removing Humza Yousaf from office. He has been a failure as first minister and we have an opportunity next week to end his time in office.

Even if the Scottish Greens did back the Labour motion, it does not seem likely to pass because Alba is opposed. (See 12.02pm.)

Humza Yousaf hasn’t ruled out calling an early Holyrood election as a means of resolving the leadership crisis, Kathryn Samson from Channel 4 News reports.

The First Minister insist he’s fighting on ahead of next week’s expected confidence vote.

I asked if he wanted to test his leadership on the public rather than on parliament by calling for an early Holyrood election.

He told me he hadn’t ruled that out.

For an early election to happen, two thirds of MSPs would have to vote in favour. That means Yousaf would need SNP MSPs to vote in favour, which might be hard because polling suggests many of them would lose their seats.

Alternatively, an early election would take place if the first minister resigned and after 28 days MSPs were still unable to elect a new one.

Although Humza Yousaf, Scotland’s first minister, is holding out an olive branch of sorts to the Scottish Greens today (see 2.10pm and 2.17pm), Tom Gordon from the Herald cannot see it working.

Can’t imagine the Greens reconsidering their position without some major demands being met, which would put Humza Yousaf back to square one with his party.

As for asking other leaders how to make his minority government work, that’s something he should have thought of earlier

Lawyers acting for a Muslim pupil and her family who took Michaela Community School in Brent, north-west London, to court over a prayer ban on school premises have confirmed they will not be appealing the judgment.

The high court in London upheld the ban in a written judgment handed down last week, dismissing the pupil’s arguments against the ban on all key grounds.

The family, speaking via their legal team, said today whilst they had “not made the decision lightly”, they now wanted to “focus on supporting the pupil with her upcoming exams”.

In an earlier statement issued by the pupil, who is still a student at Michaela, she said:

Even though I lost, I still feel that I did the right thing in seeking to challenge the ban. I tried my best, and was true to myself and my religion.

Being involved in this case has not been easy for me. My main focus now is my GCSEs. The teachers are very good here and I hope to do the best that I can. I am also grateful for the understanding that my non-Muslim friends at school have shown as to the issues that affect us.

Michaela is one of the top performing state schools in the country. Founder and head teacher Katharine Birbalsingh, who is frequently described as Britain’s strictest headmistress, welcomed the ruling as “a victory for all schools”.

Ex-Post Office executive tells inquiry Horizon issues 'outside my knowledge scope'

Angela van den Bogerd, the former Post Office executive who played a leading role in defending the prosecution of the post officer operators who are now recognised as innocent, has told the Post Office inquiry that issues raised by colleagues relating to the Horizon IT system were “outside my knowledge scope”, PA Media reports. PA says:

On her second day of giving evidence at the inquiry on Friday, van den Bogerd was asked about the cases of several individual subpostmasters and their branches.

The inquiry was shown an email from fraud analyst Helen Rose sent to van den Bogerd on February 13 2013 about the audit record query (ARQ) logs being provided by Fujitsu for use in court. Rose expressed concerns that in some cases the logs “would not be giving a true picture” in court, and later said: “I don’t know where to go with this.”

Asked by Jason Beer KC, lead counsel to the inquiry, if Rose was raising a broader issue about IT systems, van den Bogerd said: “That’s not how I read this.”

Van den Bogerd confirmed she did not do anything with the contents of the emails and that she expected Rose to raise the issue “through her reporting line”.

Beer asked: “That didn’t ring any alarm bells?”

Van den Bogerd replied: “Not for me at the time.”

Beer continued: “Is it one of those things that it’s just somebody else’s job, Ms van den Bogerd?”

Van den Bogerd said: “Well it was outside my knowledge scope, so I wouldn’t have had the knowledge to know what to do with that. Now, I would obviously look at this very, very differently.”

The inquiry was also shown a series of letters and emails concerning the case of Martin Griffiths, who was sacked from his Hope Farm Post Office branch in Cheshire in July 2013. Griffiths deliberately stepped in front of an oncoming bus on September 23 2013, after he had been deemed culpable for an armed robbery at his branch in May of that year.

He had also previously written to the Post Office in July 2013 about a £39,000 shortfall at his branch between February 2012 and May 2013.

An email shared by Alan Bates to Post Office executives from Griffiths’ mother on the same day said “the Post Office had driven him to suicide”.

The email was eventually forwarded to van den Bogerd with suggestions to hire a specialist media lawyer.

Beer asked: “The immediate reaction was not what can we the Post Office do to help this man’s family, was it?”

Van ven Bogerd replied: “Not at this point.”

Beer continued: “Is that what it was like working in the Post Office at this time? That the first thought was, we need a media lawyer?”

Van den Bogerd replied: “In all my time with Post Office from very, very early on, I was very conscious that PR was very important.”

Scottish Green co-leader Patrick Harvie says Yousaf has 'broken trust' and SNP should find new leader

Patrick Harvie, the Scottish Green party’s co-leader, has said that Humza Yousaf is not able to unite the Scottish parliament and that the SNP should find a new leader.

Speaking to PA Media, Harvie said:

Very clearly, [Yousaf] doesn’t have the confidence of parliament, I think that’s going to be clear. We said very clearly the responsibility of the decision is on him. He needs to bear the consequences of that reckless and damaging decision [ending the power-sharing deal with the Greens].

I think it’s pretty clear he’s not the person who is going to be able to bring together a majority of parliament.

Asked if there was any way back for Yousaf in terms of working with the Greens, Harvie said the first minister had “broken trust”. He went on:

He still hasn’t really given any clarity on why he made such a dramatic U-turn and broken a promise on which he was elected as first minister.

So it’s very difficult to see how you can have a conversation that leads to a constructive outcome on the basis of that lack of trust.

This is what Humza Yousaf, Scotland’s first minister, told reporters about his intention to win over some of the opposition parties ahead of no confidence vote. According to PA Media, he said:

I intend absolutely to fight that vote of no confidence, I’ve got every intention of winning that vote of no confidence.

And let me say to the opposition, for minority government to work in the interest of the people of Scotland also requires the opposition to act in good faith.

And to the Greens I’ve obviously heard their anger, their upset.

What I will do is be writing to all the political party leaders, all the party groups represented in the Scottish parliament, including of course Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater [co-leaders of the Scottish Greens], asking them to meet with me, to say how do we make minority government work. It’s in the best interests of the people of Scotland that all of us act in good faith and make it work.

Humza Yousaf speaking to the media today.
Humza Yousaf speaking to the media today. Photograph: Andrew Milligan/PA

Updated

Yousaf says he is 'very confident' of winning no confidence vote, and that he will 'compromise' with critics

According to Sky News, Humza Yousaf told reporters:

I intend to fight that vote of no confidence. I’ve got every intention of winning that vote of no confidence.

Yousaf seemed to be talking about the confidence vote into him personally. (Labour wants a separate no confidence vote, into the government as a whole, but Yousaf is in a stronger position to see off that one – see 12.02pm.) According to Sky News, when asked why he was confident, Yousaf replied:

I believe in our ability to be able to work with, negotiate, compromise where necessary. We’ve shown that in the past.

I’ll be looking to do that over the next coming days with the opposition leaders.

And with that, I’m quite confident, very confident, in fact, that we’ll be able to win that vote of confidence.

That makes it sound as if Ash Regan will get what she wants. See 9.33am and 9.50am.

Yousaf tells Scottish Greens he understands their anger, and urges them not to back no confidence motion

Humza Yousaf has held out an olive branch to the Scottish Greens, saying that he recognises that they feel hurt as a result of his decision to end the SNP/Greens’ power-sharing deal. “I empathise with their position because I understand how they must be feeling,” he said.

These are from the Scotsman’s Alistair Grant.

“I’m confident I can win that vote,” he says.

The FM says he understands the anger and hurt of the Greens and he will be reaching out to them.

The SNP and the Greens have many shared interests, he adds.

Yousaf says ending the Bute House Agreement was the right thing to do.

But he said he will be speaking to Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater about what happened.

“I empathise with their position because I understand how they must be feeling.”

The FM said he will be writing to every party leader in Holyrood to seek a meeting. He said he would urge the Greens to reconsider their position.

The Greens said last night that they would vote against Yousaf in the Tory no confidence motion into his position as first minister. But they have not said how they would vote on the alternative Labour motion, expressing no confidence in the government as a whole.

This motion, if successful, would force all government ministers to resign and could trigger an early election. (See 11.22am.)

This is from Alan Jenkins from 5 News.

Yousaf says he won't resign as first minister and will be 'fighting vote of no confidence'

Humza Yousaf has told journalists that he will not be resigning and that he will be fighting the confidence vote, Alistair Grant from the Scotsman reports.

There has been speculation that Yousaf might resign ahead of the confidence vote, or votes, next week.

Here is the Scottish government’s news release with more details of the £80m increase for Scotland’s affordable housing supply programme budget announced by Humza Yousaf within the last few minutes. (See 1.20pm.)

And here is an extract from the Yousaf statement included in the news release. The first minister said:

Housing is essential in our efforts to tackle child poverty and reduce inequality across Scotland, and it supports jobs and growth in the economy. Providing good quality, affordable housing is at the very core of what my Government is doing to make Scotland a better place.

While there is a single person homeless in our country, it is simply not acceptable to have houses sitting empty – so I am determined that we remove the barriers, and provide the money that will enable councils to buy properties so they can become affordable homes again.

Yousaf arrives for briefing with media to announce £80m for affordable housing in Scotland

As Chris McCall from the Daily Record reports, Humza Yousaf is in Dundee, where he is about to announce £80m for affordable housing.

But McCall says he does not think the journalists who are there to cover the visit will have many questions about housing.

Robin Swann, Stormont's UUP health minister, hints he may resign if health spending in NI budget not increased

Stormont’s health minister Robin Swann has refused to rule out resigning if a budget for Northern Ireland agreed by the power-sharing executive is passed in its current form, PA Media reports. PA says:

The Ulster Unionist minister has called on the Stormont assembly to “strategically review” and change the draft budget, which he has warned could devastate already strained health services in Northern Ireland.

Swann broke ranks as the only member of the four-party power-sharing administration to refuse to back the spending plan which was agreed by his ministerial colleagues yesterday.

It has developed into the first major row within the restored power-sharing administration, undermining the unified approach ministers had previously been keen to project as they pressed the UK government for more money.

While the health service has been allocated more than half the £14.5bn resource budget available to the devolved government, Swann has said it falls well short of the money needed to maintain services at safe levels.

Swann told the BBC’s Good Morning Ulster programme:

What I am saying is a diminished health service, a health service that is actually ravaged by millions of pounds worth of cuts, is bad for people’s health.

I believed that going into this executive .. we heard from across the political parties, across the political spectrum, that health was going to be a priority, waiting list initiatives were going to be a priority. And when I looked at the allocation that was being proposed for health, I don’t see that reflected in the actions or the proposals that were taken.

Asked if he would resign if the budget does not get amended, Swann replied:

I think we as a party will make those calls when we see how this develops through time and I think it will be a number of weeks where we see this budget work out.

Updated

Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, has said that Labour wants an election not just for Westminster, but for the Scottish parliament too.

Asked about the situation in the Scottish parliament, Reeves said:

If Anas Sarwar and Scottish Labour are successful with [the Labour no confidence motion – see 10.53am], the government will fall and there’ll be fresh elections.

We now have two broken governments: the SNP in Scotland and the Conservatives in Westminster. It is time for fresh elections in Scotland and across the UK.

Reeves has been campaigning this morning with Keir Starmer in Darlington.

No 10 says it is 'too early' to say Rwanda Act having deterrent effect

Downing Street has refused to endorse a suggestion from Micheál Martin, the Irish tánaiste (deputy PM), that the Rwanda policy is already having a deterrent effect.

As the Daily Telegraph reports in its splash, 80% of recent asylum seekers arriving in Ireland have come from Northern Ireland. Martin suggsted that this was because the Rwanda policy was “impacting on Ireland”. He said: “Maybe that’s the impact it was designed to have.”

Asked if the UK government agreed with Martin’s suggestion, a No 10 spokesperson told journalists at the lobby briefing:

It is too early to jump to specific conclusions about the impact of the Act and treaty in terms of migrant behaviour.

Of course we will monitor this very closely and we already work very closely as you would expect with the Irish government, including on matters relating to asylum.

But of course, the intention behind the Act is to have it serve as a deterrent and that is why we are working to get flights off the ground as swiftly as possible.

A reader asks:

Beyond getting lots of nice photos, has Cameron accomplished anything interesting/useful on his week long trip?

Good question. The Foreign Office claims the answer is yes. It set out the aims of the trip in a news release at the start of the week. Here is an excerpt.

The foreign secretary will visit Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Mongolia to as part of government ambition to increase engagement with this pivotal region of the world. He will meet leaders across the region to deepen cooperation on shared challenges, from counter-terrorism to climate change.

He will support global opportunities for young people, by ensuring that English language teachers across the region will have access to tailored British Council English language teaching materials. He will double the amount of funding for Chevening scholarships, so more people can study at Britain’s world-class universities.

He will support British business to create jobs and growth from Bridgend to Bishkek. He will show that British business provides the sustainable, quality investment that can drive growth without compromising the region’s hard won sovereignty.

Alba says it would not back Labour bid to bring down Scottish government

Ash Regan, the only Alba party MSP, will not back Labour’s motion of no confidence in the Scottish government (see 10.53am), a spokesperson for the party has said. In a statement Alba said:

Anas Sarwar’s grandstanding is just an attempt to remain relevant. However, unionist parties should beware in their glee. As much as Humza Yousaf and the SNP find themselves in a tricky predicament, independence supporters will not turn back to the yoke of Tory and Labour mediocrity. Alba Party are now ensuring that independence supporters have a party they can turn to.

There are 63 SNP MSPs in the Scottish parliament and 64 MSPs from the Conservatives, Labour, the Greens and the Liberal Democrats.

Assuming those four opposition parties all vote solidly together, the SNP needs Regan, a former SNP MSP, to vote with them to avoid defeat. Her vote would lead to a 64-64 tie, but in those circumstances the presiding officer, Alison Johnstone, would, by convention, vote against a no confidence motion.

Humza Yousaf is expected to make an announcement about housing this afternoon. It is expected early afternoon rather than late afternoon.

Despite a report in the Times this morning saying he was considering his position, he is not going to be announcing his resignation, the BBC says.

Although Humza Yousaf cancelled the speech he was due to give this afternoon, he is now expected to hold a press briefing this afternoon, Sky News is reporting.

Who would gain most if Labour succeeds in its bid to trigger early Scottish election?

The Tory no confidence motion was intended to force the resignation of Humza Yousaf. But the Labour one (see 10.53am) is more serious, because it is intended to force an early election.

And it is not hard to see why the two opposition parties at Holyrood are pursuing different tactics. The Conservatives are currently the second largest party in the Scottish parliament, but the polls suggest they could lose almost a third of their seats if an election were held now. But Labour might come close to doubling their number of MSPs.

Currently the SNP have 63 seats, the Tories 31 and Labour 22. This Ballot Box Scotland seat projection says current polling suggests an election would leave the SNP with 46 seats, Labour would end up with 41, and the Tories would be down to 22.

Will the Scottish Conservatives back the Labour no confidence motion in the government? Given what Douglas Ross, the Scottish Tory leader, has said about the SNP government, it is hard to see how they could defend not voting with Labour. But, in terms of electoral logic, it would be a classic example of turkeys legislating for the December 25 festive holiday bill.

The Scottish Greens said yesterday they would vote for the Tory no confidence motion. They have a particular grievance againt Yousaf, who sacked the two Green ministers when he abruptly cancelled the SNP/Green power-sharing deal yesterday. But the Greens are more supportive of the SNP as a whole. According to the recent polling, they might gain seats in an early election (going from eight MSPs to 10). But the Greens are pro-independence, and the polls suggest the pro-independence majority in the parliamnet would disappear after an early election.

The Liberal Democrats have got every incentive to push for an early election. Currently they have just four seats, but the seat projection suggests an election now would give them 10.

Scottish Labour says it's 'when, not if' Yousaf resigns as it tables no confidence motion in Scottish government

At Holyrood Scottish Labour has now tabled its own no confidence motion. And it is significantly different from the one tabled by the Scottish Conservatives yesterday.

The Tory is about no confidence in Humza Yousaf as first minister. If he were to lose, he might feel honour bound to resign, but he could in theory just ignore it.

The Labour one is a no confidence motion in the Scottish government. And if a no confidence vote in the government passes, the first minister and all other ministers are required to resign. The parliament then has 28 days to elect a new first minister, by a simple majority. If it cannot do that, parliament is dissolved and an early election is held.

Explaining his party’s move, Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader, said:

Scottish Labour has no confidence in Humza Yousaf or this SNP Government, that is why we are laying a motion today to this effect to say that the parliament has no confidence in the Scottish government.

It is for the people of Scotland to decide who is first minister, not just a group of SNP members.

Removing Humza Yousaf alone will not deliver the change we need, we need to get rid of the entire SNP government which has left almost one in six Scots on an NHS waiting list, public finances in chaos and public services at breaking point.

The people of Scotland deserve a fresh start, this can only come with a Scottish election.

Sarwar also said he thought Yousaf’s resignation was now inevitable.

It’s a matter now of when, not if, Humza Yousaf will step down as first minister.

This is from LBC’s Gina Davidson.

Updated

Flynn says he could not stand for SNP leader if Yousaf were to quit without being MSP

Stephen Flynn is viewed by some people as the most talented politician in the SNP and, in his interview on the Today programme, he was asked if he would stand for the leadership if Humza Yousaf were to resign. He replied:

I have been asked this question previously the last time there was a leadership contest in the Scottish National party, and I was very clear in my view that I believe that the party leader should have the ability to be the first minister of Scotland.

I have not been dissuaded from that view since I made those comments well over a year ago, but the most important thing for me here is to get on with the job of supporting the first minister over the coming days as he fights back and he wins this vote of no confidence next week.

When it was put to him that this was not a clear no, Flynn replied:

Of course, implicit in my answer is the fact that I believe that the party leader should have the ability to be first minister of Scotland. As you and all your listeners know I am a member of parliament in Westminster, I do not have the ability to be the first minister of Scotland, so I am sure people can read between the lines in that regard.

This answer seemed to leave open the possibility that, if Flynn could get elected to the Scottish parliament in a byelection, then he might be interested. But making a leadership bid contingent on this being able to happen might be very problematic.

SNP's Stephen Flynn tells MSPs it's time for 'cool heads' and to 'reflect' on impact of bringing down Yousaf

Stephen Flynn, the SNP’s leader at Westminster, defended Humza Yousaf in an interview on the Today programme this morning and said that the first minister was right to abandon the SNP’s power-sharing deal with the Scottish Greens.

Describing Yousaf as a “man of profound integrity”, he said:

I firmly believe it [ending the deal with the Greens] was the right thing to do, because the first minister wanted to reset the focus of the Scottish Government on the priorities of the Scottish people. That of course means providing jobs and opportunities for our young people, growing the economy, protecting our NHS from the worst excesses of … Westminster and dealing with the cost-of-living crisis. He was absolutely right to do that.

Flynn urged MSPs from all parties to think about the consequences of bringing down Yousaf – a move that could, in certain circumstances, lead to an early election in Scotland.

I would simply say to politicians from across the political spectrum that now is the time for cool heads, calm words, to reflect and to think about the consequences of their actions.

This remark seemed to be aimed both at both SNP and Conservative MSPs; if there were an early Scottish election, both parties would probably lose seats.

Flynn said he spoke to Yousaf last night and found him in a '“reflective” mood, but also determined “to come out fighting because he believes in what he says”.

Humza Yousaf cancels planned speech as leadership crisis continues

Humza Yousaf, Scotland’s first minister, has cancelled a planned speech at Strathclyde University as he battles for his political life, PA Media reports.

Yousaf was due to speak about the labour strategy in an independent Scotland, take part in a Q&A session and take questions from the press. But a source close to the first minister confirmed to PA this morning the event had been cancelled.

Given the reception Yousaf got from journalists when he held a press conference yesterday, this decision is not surprising.

Updated

Yousaf urged to back plan for referendum on whether Holyrood should have power to hold independence referendum

The Alba MSP Ash Regan has now published on X the text of her letter to Humza Yousaf suggesting what he needs to do to secure her support in the no confidence vote next week.

As well as asking for assurances relating to the rights of women and “competent governance”, she is asking Yousaf to support her proposed Scottish parliament powers referendum bill. This is a reference to an Alba party plan to get round the fact that Westminster can stop the Scottish government holding a referendum on independence by instead getting the Scottish government to hold a referendum on whether it should have the power to hold an independence referendum. Alba believes Westminster would not be able to stop such a vote.

Updated

Humza Yousaf told he needs to give assurances on rights of women and 'competent governance' to win confidence vote

Good morning. A week today many of the results from the local elections will be in, the Conservatives are expected to be doing very badly and Rishi Sunak’s leadership will be on the line. Many Tory think Sunak could be facing a no confidence vote within days.

And so it must be some relief in Downing Street that there is another political leader in the UK in even more trouble than Sunak. Humza Yousaf, the SNP leader and Scottish first minister, is facing an actual no confidence vote next week, not just a hypothetical one, and, as Severin Carrell explains in our overnight story, there is a real chance he could be out of his job within days.

To win the no confidence vote, Yousaf needs to secure the support of Ash Regan, a former SNP MSP who came third in the leadership contest Yousaf won last year and who subsequently defected to Alba, Alex Salmond’s party. Alba is a bit more aggressively pro-independence than the SNP, and more socially conservative (or less “woke”, as critics of the SNP might say).

Late last night, in an interview with the BBC’s World Tonight, Regan gave her first proper indication of what Yousaf will need to do to secure her vote. She told the programme:

I have written to the first minister today with a number of issues that I’ve raised with him on progress made towards independence, on how he will defend the rights of women and children and a return to competent governance.

My vote will depend on really what Humza comes back with in response to my letter.

I’m not setting out specific demands as such, I’m putting the ball into Humza’s court for him to come back to me and explain to me how he will make progress in a couple of these areas, particularly around the return to a competent government.

She said the SNP used to be a competent government. But she went on:

Unfortunately it has lost its focus over the last few years, it has gone down pursuing some policies that are not popular with the public, many of those were policies that really stemmed from the coalition agreement with the Green party.

On the basis of this interview, it does not seem impossible to imagine Yousaf saying or doing enough to secure her vote. Yousaf is scheduled to be giving a speech later, so we may hear more from him on this as the day goes on.

Here is the agenda for the day.

9.30am: MPs debate private members bill, starting with one introduced by Maria Miller requiring the government to give higher diplomatic status to the Commonwealth Parliamentary Association (CPA) and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC).

9.45am: Angela van den Bogard, a former Post Office executive, resumes giving evidence to the Post Office Horizon inquiry.

Morning: Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, are on a visit in the north-east of England highlighting cost of living issues. They are giving interviews. Rishi Sunak is visiting a factory in Hertfordshire, but he is not expected to speak to reporters.

11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.

Noon: Humza Yousaf, Scotland’s first minister, is due to give a speech at Strathclyde University.

And David Cameron, the foreign secretary, is in Mongolia, on the final day of his tour of Central Asia.

If you want to contact me, do use the “send us a message” feature. You’ll see it just below the byline – on the left of the screen, if you are reading on a laptop or a desktop. This is for people who want to message me directly. I find it very useful when people message to point out errors (even typos – no mistake is too small to correct). Often I find your questions very interesting, too. I can’t promise to reply to them all, but I will try to reply to as many as I can, either in the comments below the line; privately (if you leave an email address and that seems more appropriate); or in the main blog, if I think it is a topic of wide interest.

Updated

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