The first act of Humza Yousaf’s leadership of the SNP was to fire off a letter to Rishi Sunak demanding a section 30 order which, if granted, would trigger the mechanism to allow a second Scottish independence referendum to go ahead.
His predecessor, Nicola Sturgeon, had already tried this in 2017 and again in 2019, but her approach failed when the UK government refused to agree to it. Downing Street has already made it clear that Sunak’s response to Yousaf will be no different.
Even some of his allies were left shrugging their shoulders and struggling to explain how the bid was anything other than performative. “He’s got to show he’s prepared to do that,” one said of Yousaf. “Even if we all already know the outcome.”
During the leadership campaign, Yousaf indicated that another independence referendum was not going to happen anytime soon, with the polls suggesting that a majority of Scottish voters do not want one now, and the public still split on the outcome.
He has already suggested he is “not wedded” to the idea of using the next general election as a de facto referendum, after the idea opened a deep schism within the SNP, forcing Sturgeon to drop it.
He has warned that the independence movement should not become stuck in a “quagmire” of process, but instead the party has to talk about policy, effectively restarting the yes campaign, pounding the pavements to try to win more undecided or novoters over.
Allies suggest that Yousaf, the first Scottish Asian and Muslim to become first minister, understands that to win over new voters, when most already hold fairly entrenched positions, he first has to convince them of the economic case.
That will involve responding to some of the still unanswered questions of the campaign, including on currency, and showing competence on handling the nation’s finances and boosting growth. “Then you’re in a different place,” said one SNP insider.
Yet his opponents suggest that if there was any real hope of another independence referendum, Sturgeon would still be in post. They claim that she knew that she had run out of road after the supreme court ruled against another vote and internal splits on the de facto referendum, and so had to pass on the baton.
Yousaf is also on a collision course with the UK government over the SNP’s gender reform plans, currently blocked by Sunak. He initially said he would take legal action, but then suggested he would only proceed if the advice suggested he could win. If, as expected, the case is weak then he will have to face up to the realpolitik and compromise.
He needs to convince the Scots electorate that, despite being the “continuity Sturgeon” candidate throughout the leadership contest, he can actually take the SNP in a fresh direction, and prove wrong his detractors – who say he is just more of the same, but not as good. It will involve countering his rival Kate Forbes’s attack that he was incompetent in the three policy briefs he held.
Yousaf’s allies suggest he has been underestimated but admit it is up to him to demonstrate his talents. They say he understands there are challenges ahead, and will have to adopt a “continuity-plus” strategy to win over previously unconvinced voters, as well as keep those already on board.
But he has a tougher electoral challenge ahead than the SNP has faced in years, with Labour already snapping at his heels before next year’s general election.
Sturgeon’s departure presented a huge opportunity for Keir Starmer, who unsurprisingly has made several trips to Scotland in recent weeks. If Labour does well there, picking up a couple of dozen seats, it could be the difference between just squeaking into power or doing it with a workable majority.
Yousaf also neutralises the perennial Tory attack advert that depicts the Labour leader in the SNP’s pocket, as he lacks the profile of either of his predecessors.
SNP insiders acknowledge the threat Labour represents to them for the first time in a generation. But there remain significant areas of difference – such as Brexit and migration – where they can set themselves apart.
Nevertheless, Yousaf does not have long to prevent his coalition of support from splintering.
