Humza Yousaf's plan to achieve a second referendum on independence is a "big risk" for the SNP as it faces a revived Labour, a top pollster has said.
The First Minister announced on Saturday he would have a mandate to demand an IndyRef2 from the UK Government if his party won the most seats in Scotland at the next general election, which is expected next year.
Yousaf said his intention would then be to a call a referendum as soon as possible afterwards.
But Mark Diffley, a leading polling expert, said it was "no longer a foregone conclusion" the SNP would win the most seats north of the border.
He said recent surveys showed the Nationalists remained out in front when it came voting intentions but the lead was now narrowing.
"Support for independence has maintained a relatively high rate. But it's support for the SNP that has taken a hit, unsurprisingly, with some of the events we've witnessed over the last few months," he told BBC Radio Scotland today.
"The gap is definitely starting to close. The next electoral test will be the general election which we're expecting in around 12-18 months' time.
"One poll last week had Labour and the SNP neck-and-neck on 34 per cent each. If you step back and look at a trend of the last 10 polls, is the SNP is ahead on 38 per cent with Labour on 31 per cent.
'But the gap is closing and the risk for the First Minister in saying, if we win a majority of seats at the general election next year that gives us to start negotiating independence, is that is no longer a foregone conclusion.
"It is likely the SNP will lose seats at the next general election - but the scale of that loss is what is really at stake here and what the big risk is."
Yousaf said yesterday the general election would likely be "difficult" for the SNP.
"This is going to be a tough general election. It’s going to be a difficult general election," he said.
“That’s why I’m going to put the case for independence as that alternative future, that better future, to the people of Scotland, and I’m confident we can win that general election.”
Yousaf said winning a majority of seats at the next election should mean ministers at Holyrood begin negotiations with their Westminster counterparts on achieving independence.
Recent polling by PanelBase has predicted the SNP will take 21 of the 59 Scottish seats at the next election, down from its current 45, while Scottish Labour is forecast to win 26 seats – meaning the nationalists would fall short of the majority sought by Yousaf.
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