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Humana Inc. (HUM), headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky, ranks among the largest health insurers in the United States. With a market capitalization of $35.6 billion, the company operates through its Insurance and CenterWell segments.
Humana has substantially underperformed the broader market over the past year. Over the past 52 weeks, HUM stock has dipped 41.7%, lagging behind the S&P 500 Index’s ($SPX) 31.1% returns. In 2024 alone, HUM plunged 35.4% compared to SPX’s 24.7% gains on a YTD basis.
Narrowing the focus, HUM has also underperformed the SPDR Healthcare Services ETF’s (XHS) 12% returns over the past 52 weeks and 6.2% gains on a YTD basis.
On Nov. 20, Humana shares climbed over 5% on Wednesday after RBC Capital Markets highlighted Mehmet Oz's nomination to lead the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services as a positive development for the health insurance sector.
Moreover, HUM shares rose 12% as health insurers focusing on Medicare rallied on expectations of higher reimbursement rates under the Trump administration.
For the current fiscal year, ending in December, analysts expect Humana to report an EPS decline of 39.2% year over year to $15.86. The company’s earnings surprise history is mixed. It surpassed the EPS estimates in three of the past four quarters while missing on another occasion.
Among the 24 analysts covering the HUM stock, the consensus rating is a “Moderate Buy.” That’s based on six “Strong Buy” ratings, one “Moderate Buy,” and 17 “Holds.”
This configuration is slightly less bullish than two months before, with ten analysts recommending a “Strong Buy.”
On Nov. 11, Bank of America Securities upgraded Humana from “Underperform” to “Neutral,” raising its price target to $308 from $247, citing a more balanced risk-reward outlook post-election. The upgrade reflects expectations of improved rates and reduced regulatory pressures. Despite maintaining a cautious $13 EPS estimate for 2026, the revised valuation implies a higher earnings multiple.
HUM’s mean price target of $302.14 represents a premium of 2.2% from current price levels. The Street-high target of $550 indicates a robust potential upside of 86%.
