LABOUR are experiencing dramatic decline in Scotland and would be left with just a handful of seats if a General Election were held tomorrow, a new poll has found.
Keir Starmer's party has lost gains made over the SNP, and would lose most of their recently gained seats to their pro-independence rivals – losing nearly half of their July voters as they move from 34% to 18%.
According to Electoral Calculus and communications agency PLMR, who carried out the survey, Labour would be left with just 12 seats at Westminster, compared to the 37 they managed to secure last summer.
Meanwhile, the SNP would surge ahead at a vote – as the party picks up 31% of vote share, translating to 37 seats.
Emma Divers, head of Scotland at PLMR, said the poll marked a "significant shift" in voter attitudes in a short space of time.
“However, this shift is not necessarily a result of the SNP’s strengths, but rather a reflection of the challenges facing the Labour Government," Divers explained. "In just six months, Labour has had to navigate a challenging economic climate and deteriorating public services, which have left many voters questioning their ability to deliver.
“While this presents a crucial opportunity for the SNP, it also offers Labour a wake-up call. Keir Starmer and Anas Sarwar now have a vital opportunity to engage with voters and strengthen their message in Scotland.
"With just one year until the next Holyrood election, the race is on for Labour to reconnect with the electorate and demonstrate their vision for Scotland’s future. If they succeed, they can re-establish momentum; if not, they risk another SNP-led Government for four more years.”
The poll also found Reform just one point behind Labour in Scotland, at 17% – just days after a UK-wide YouGov poll picked up similarly close results.
The survey, carried out for The Times and Sky News, showed Reform UK leading with 25% of the vote, ahead of Labour at 24% and the Tories at 21%.
The full results of the Electoral Calculus and PLMR January 2025 MRP poll will be available to view here from Friday morning.
Elsewhere, the LibDems were on 8%, a slight decrease since the election, and the Greens were on 4%, marking no change. The Tories were down just one point at 12%.
