Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives are staring a general election wipe-out “in the face”, said the UK’s top polling guru after devastating back to back by-election losses in safe Tory seats.
Prof John Curtice said Labour’s shock wins in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire meant the Tories had not seen such poor by-election results since the run-up to Tony Blair’s 1997 general election landslide.
And Sir John warned that without a “dramatic” turnaround, Mr Sunak’s party is on course for a huge defeat – predicting that Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour could claim an even bigger win than under Blair in 1997.
Labour candidate Sarah Edwards overturned a 19,000 majority in Tamworth, the second biggest by-election swing from the Tories to Labour in the post-war era.
And just moments later, Labour’s Alistair Strathern overcame a 24,000 majority to win Mid Bedfordshire for the first time in the constituency’s century-long history. Sir Keir said showed that his party was “redrawing the political map”.
The Labour leader hailed the by-election victories as an “history in the making”, arguing that the massive swings to his party were “a gamechanger” that put his party on course for power.
Sir Keir told the BBC: “Each of these results is extraordinary – it’s history in the making, and I think that reflects the fact we are a changed Labour party, that we are putting a positive case for change to the country. And after 13 years of failure and decline under this Conservative government, I think people are looking for change.”
Right-wing Tory MP Andrea Jenkyns, a Boris Johnson backer, demanded “far-reaching change now” after the shock results. Tory peer Lord Cruddas, another ally of Mr Johnson, said “clearly Rishi Sunak isn’t working as leader of our party”.
The ex-party treasurer told The Independent: “Local council elections, by-elections defeats everywhere. Rishi’s record is dire and Tories are heading for electoral disaster under Sunak. Things need to change starting at the top.”
Sarah Edwards giving her victory speech in Tamworth on Friday morning— (PA Wire)
Despite the scale of the defeats, Sunak loyalists denied that the party had to change tack. Minister Andrew Bowie told Sky News there was “always room for improvement” but the government was “on the right course”.
And Tory chairman Greg Hands claimed that voters are “happy with the job Rishi Sunak is doing” despite the Tories’ two humiliating defeats. He also said he does not “see any enthusiasm for Labour”.
In Tamworth, Labour’s Sarah Edwards overcome a 19,000 majority and defeated Tory rival Andrew Cooper by a majority of 1,316 – a swing of 23.9 per cent.
In Mid-Bedfordshire, Alistair Strathern overcame a 24,000 majority by taking the seat by 1,192 votes over his Tory rival Festus Akinbusoye – a swing of 20.5 per cent to Labour.
Polling guru Sir John told the BBC that the two results were “extremely bad news” for the Conservatives and suggested a landslide defeat was on the cards.
“This isn’t destiny – but it is a pointer and it is a pointer that, unless the Conservatives can fairly dramatically and fairly radically turn things around, then they are in truth staring defeat in the face in 12 months’ time.”
Labour candidate Alistair Strathern overturns 24,000 majority— (PA)
Luke Tryl, UK director at the More in Common group, said “the Tories should be very worried”. The pollster said the only things which could turn it around for the Conservatives are “a significant economic recovery and feel good factor,” but warned “even that may not be enough”.
Mr Tryl told The Independent: “It’s not just that Labour have won two of the safest seats in the country, it’s that they have overcome real electoral barriers to do so.
The shock by-election results saw Labour win Mid Bedfordshire for the first time after an unusually long contest sparked by the resignation of Nadine Dorries, who quit in protest after not being awarded a peerage in ally Boris Johnson’s resignation honours.
Mr Strathern was announced as Labour’s candidate just days later and has been campaigning in the seat ever since. He said his victory in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election had “made history” and sent a “resounding message”.
Tamworth result— (PA)
Giving his victory speech, the newest Labour MP said: “Tonight residents across Mid Bedfordshire have made history, after decades of being taken for granted, feeling left behind, being under-represented, they made a decision it was time for a change. Nowhere is off limits for this Labour Party and tonight’s result proves it.”
Speaking after her victory in Tamworth, Ms Edwards called on Rishi Sunak to “do the decent thing and call a general election"” She said: “The people of Tamworth have voted for Labour’s positive vision and a fresh start ... The people of Tamworth have made it clear, it’s time for change.”
Her Tory rival Andrew Cooper left the hall through the nearest fire exit as she was beginning her speech.
Mid Bedfordshire Result— (PA)
The Tories had sought to temper expectations ahead of the results, claiming “government’s don’t win by-elections”. And, responding to the party’s loss in Tamworth, a spokesman said it was a “difficult result”.
The party sought to pin the result in part on “the nature of the departure of the previous MP” Chris Pincher, who quit after being found to have drunkenly groped two men in a private members’ club.
Mr Tryl said Labour had won in Tamworth despite it being a heavily Brexit voting seat which has “trended away from Labour at an alarming rate since the party last held it in 2005” .
The polling expert also said the Conservatives should be worried about “a split on the right”, with the vote for Reform UK bigger than the Labour majority in both Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire.
In Mid Bedfordshire, Labour won even despite a split in the anti-Tory vote with the Liberal Democrats. The Liberal Democrats, who came a close third in Mid Bedfordshire, said the party “played a crucial role in defeating the Conservatives”.
There had initially been fears that by battling Labour for second place, the party would split the vote and allow the Conservatives to hold the seat. But deputy leader Daisy Cooper said the party nearly doubled its share of the vote, suggesting many of the new supporters it picked up were from the Conservatives.
