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This weekend Canberrans (not including the large number who have already pre-polled) will cast their votes in the ACT election.
It will be the 11th territory election since self-government and over that time some clear voting patterns have emerged. Examining data from the past five elections, there are some areas which have consistently favoured Labor and others that have favoured the Liberals.
But along the way there have been a couple of surprises. For those interested in knowing how a particular suburb has voted over the past five elections and the suburbs with the biggest Labor, Liberal or Green vote, The Canberra Times has compiled the data. It is based on Elections ACT data from polling booths over the years.
Here are some highlights for each of the parties and what these voting patterns could mean for the 2024 poll.
Labor
Over the past five elections, Labor has polled consistently well in Ginninderra but there have been deviations over the years across suburbs in other electorates.
For example, in 2016 Labor's top voting suburbs were mostly in Yerrabi. The election was fought on light rail, with the Liberals promising to scrap the project. But interestingly Labor's vote went drastically down in many of the suburbs where they had electoral success in 2016.
Harrison reported the highest Labor vote in 2016 with 50.1 per cent but this dropped to 33.7 per cent in 2020. The Liberals did better than Labor in 2020 with 36.8 per cent of the vote. A similar result was reported in the suburb of Gungahlin with Labor receiving 47.9 per cent of the vote in 2016 compared to 33.5 per cent in 2020.
Labor's strongest suburb in 2020 was Latham with 43.6 per cent of the vote.
Ginninderra is important to Labor's electoral success and with the Liberals suffering a series of scandals with candidates in the seat there is a strong chance Labor could pick up the third seat, especially if the party continues to receive strong support in the region.
Labor's weakest suburbs typically include Deakin, Hall, Oaks Estate and Tharwa. In 2020, Tharwa was where the party reported the lowest number of votes at 21.3 per cent.
Liberals
The suburbs where the Liberals have enjoyed strong support over the past five elections include Deakin, Fadden, Nicholls and Chisholm.
The party has had good results in Brindabella over the years but there was a notable downturn in suburbs in the electorate in 2020. The Liberals are campaigning hard in the region, running on a platform that Tuggeranong has been neglected under the Labor-led government. They will need to claw back support from people in the district.
The Liberals will likely need to win three seats in Brindabella if they wish to secure government.
Nicholls reported the highest number of Liberal votes in 2020 at 47.5 per cent, followed by Tharwa at 46,3 per cent and Forde at 45.1 per cent.
The Liberals tend to poll poorly in the inner north. Last election the party only received 15.7 per cent in Lyneham. They also reported poor results in Aranda and Scullin, both in Ginninderra, with 17.4 per cent in each suburb.
Greens
The inner north is the Greens' heartland, or as some call it "the lentil belt". Over the past five elections the strongest results for the party have come from suburbs in this district, located in Kurrajong.
Downer and Turner have battled it out for the highest Greens votes over the past five elections. Downer reported the highest number of votes for the Greens in 2020 with the party taking in 32.3 per cent of votes.
Voting patterns do show the Greens' vote in these suburbs can swing quite a bit from election to election. In Turner, the vote went from 30.2 per cent in 2008 to 24.4 per cent in 2012. The Greens gained three seats in the 2008 election but lost three members in 2012. If voting patterns in these suburbs follow this trend the Greens could be in trouble. The Greens had great electoral success in 2020 with six members elected.
The Greens' weakest suburb in 2020 was Tharwa at 4.3 per cent, followed by Forde at 6 per cent and Nicholls at 6.8 per cent.
Others
There are no clear voting patterns for the other parties and it does tend to rely upon the candidates running.
This will make it difficult to make any determinations about the independent party candidate, which have run a strong campaign.
Both Chapman and Charnwood had the highest number of people voting for another party in 2020 at 32.4 per cent each.
Chapman's other vote was high mostly due to Fiona Carrick, who ran as an independent in the last election. She is running again but this time under the banner of a party: Fiona Carrick Independent.
The Charnwood voting booth delivered strongly for the Belco Party, which is also running again in this year's election.
