On February 18, 2022, six days before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, then-United States President Joe Biden said he was “convinced” that Moscow had decided to invade Ukraine. When asked how he knew this, Biden said, “We have a significant intelligence capability.”
At the time, Ukraine’s government under President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was unsure about Biden’s prognosis, insisting that a full-scale invasion was unlikely.
Biden was right, Ukraine was wrong.
Since the war broke out, the US has – in addition to billions of dollars in sophisticated weaponry – shared intelligence with Ukraine using its vast spying capabilities, helping Kyiv both defensively and in plotting attacks on Russian forces.
That came to a halt on Wednesday when US officials confirmed that President Donald Trump had ordered the suspension of intelligence sharing with Kyiv. The move came two days after the US paused military aid to Ukraine, amid souring relations between Trump and Zelenskyy.
So just how much has the US helped Ukraine with intelligence during the war? How much will the absence of US intelligence hurt Ukraine? And can Europe step up and help Ukraine out?
Here is what we know so far.
What happened?
US officials have confirmed that Washington has paused intelligence sharing with Ukraine. This follows multiple US media outlets reporting that Trump halted military aid to Kyiv, quoting unnamed US officials.
John Ratcliffe, director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), confirmed the intelligence pause in an interview with Fox Business broadcast on Wednesday.
US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz also confirmed the pause to reporters on Wednesday, the same day. “We have taken a step back and are pausing and reviewing all aspects of this relationship,” said Waltz. He added that he has been having “good talks” on negotiations with Ukraine.
US officials have indicated that the pause on military aid and intelligence sharing could be lifted if there is a diplomatic breakthrough between Trump and Zelenskyy. “I think we’re going to see movement in very short order,” Waltz said.
On Thursday, the US and Ukraine confirmed that their teams would meet for talks in Saudi Arabia next week.
Why did the US cut intelligence sharing with Ukraine?
Reporting from the White House, Al Jazeera’s Alan Fisher said the cutting of intelligence sharing was “just a tool to try and get Ukraine back to the table”.
Fisher explained: “They [the US] also talked about stopping military aid to Ukraine, which the Ukrainians admit would hit their war efforts.
“Clearly, just the threat of those things has worked. So when you hear from the national security adviser saying things could be resumed in short order, it seems to suggest that any impact on Ukraine would be limited, to say the least, as long as peace talks certainly seem to be on the horizon sooner rather than later.”
Mikhail Alexseev, a professor of political science at San Diego State University, also told Al Jazeera that “while suspension of sending military equipment will not have significant impacts on Ukraine’s battlefield capabilities for at least two months or so, the pause in intelligence sharing will have immediate effects.
“This indicates the White House wants to push Ukraine to make concessions to Russia as soon as possible.”
How did we get here?
Trump’s military pause, and the latest halt in intelligence sharing, came after rising tensions between Trump and Zelenskyy over the past few weeks.
Trump has shifted US policy on Ukraine, opening up direct discussions with Moscow on ending the war. In February, American and Russian officials met for talks hosted by Saudi Arabia, leaving Ukraine and its European allies out of the discussion.
In the days that followed, Trump and Zelenskyy found themselves embroiled in a verbal brawl: Trump described Zelenskyy as a “dictator without elections”, casting doubt on his approval ratings. Zelenskyy hit back, saying Trump was living in a “disinformation space”.
On February 28, Zelenskyy met Trump, US Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the Oval Office in the White House. Trump and Vance accused Zelenskyy of not being thankful enough for the military assistance that Washington provides Kyiv. Days later, on Monday, Trump had suspended military aid.
On Tuesday, Zelenskyy’s tone turned conciliatory when he said Ukraine was ready to return to the negotiating table. “We do really value how much America has done to help Ukraine maintain its sovereignty and independence,” he wrote in his X post.
By Thursday, the signs of a thaw grew more prominent, with talks between US and Ukrainian officials now scheduled for next week in Saudi Arabia.
How has the US supported Ukraine with intelligence so far?
Even before the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022, the US supported Ukraine with significant intelligence.
The specific details and precisely how significant US intelligence sharing has been to Ukraine have never been explicitly publicised, but multiple reports, officials and leaks point to two key areas where it has been critical.
The intelligence – primarily a combination of satellite imagery and signals – allows Ukrainian forces to prepare for incoming Russian attacks. It also helps them track Russian troop movements and the positions of their bases, enabling Ukrainian forces to deploy missiles – including long-range projectiles – against them. This includes strikes inside Russian territory using long-range weapons such as ATACMS and HIMARS sent by Ukraine’s Western allies.
“The United States can provide Ukraine the coordinates or satellite imagery of where the Russian logistical centres are located, and then Ukraine can use that information to destroy them,” Marina Miron, a postdoctoral researcher at the Defence Studies Department at King’s College London, told Al Jazeera.
“You need that information from the Ukrainian perspective in order to target hostile objectives like ammunition depots and logistical hubs.”
But there is more.
In February 2024, a New York Times investigation revealed that, after a command centre of the Ukrainian military was destroyed in the months after Russia’s full-scale invasion, an underground bunker was built to replace it. In this bunker, Ukrainian soldiers track Russian spy satellites and listen in on conversations among the Russian military. The base is almost fully financed and partly equipped by the CIA, the Times reported.
The report added there are multiple CIA-supported spy bases in Ukraine, including at 12 secret locations along the Russian border.
The investigation further revealed that about 2016, the CIA began training an elite Ukrainian commando force, dubbed Unit 2245, which seized Russian drones and communications equipment. These devices would then be reverse-engineered by the CIA to get to decode Moscow’s encryption. One of the trained officers of 2245 was Kyrylo Budanov, who is now Ukraine’s chief of military intelligence.
Will the intelligence pause affect Ukraine’s fighting abilities?
It already has.
Reporting from Ukraine, Al Jazeera’s Charles Stratford said he had spoken with a Ukrainian commander in a unit close to the front line.
“He said that his unit and many like him right the way along that 1,300km [808 miles] front line in the east and south of Ukraine relied on American intelligence gathering for around 90 percent of the intelligence work that is done,” Stratford said. “He said that they received no help today and that indeed the Americans seem to have turned that system off.”
Ukraine uses US intelligence for a range of purposes, Stratford suggested – including, for instance, for its Patriot missile system, which is critical to Kyiv’s abilities to knock down incoming Russian ballistic missiles.
Alexseev added that the intelligence sharing pause “would allow Russia to stage its bombers closer to Ukraine, thus facilitating missile strikes on its military positions and on civilian targets, including in big cities, that would be harder to defend against”. He added the pause will hamper early warning of Russia’s mass long-range drone attacks.
Can Europe help fill Ukraine’s intelligence blindspot?
Partly.
European nations too have spy satellites that can offer some imagery – but it is unclear whether they are attuned to providing the kind of intelligence that Ukraine needs.
Ukraine also has two commercially acquired spy satellites, manufactured by Finnish company ICEYE. One was bought by a nonprofit, the other provided by the German government and German weapons maker Rheinmetall.
“While the United States has provided considerable intelligence support, it has not been the only source of intelligence,” Alexseev said, adding France has announced continuing support and willingness to fill the gaps. He added that the United Kingdom “has also articulated it has its own capabilities that would not be subject to US restrictions on its allies [and] that will generate the missing intelligence”.
Alexseev said Ukraine’s own intelligence services have also “rapidly come of age during this war and have shown much effectiveness”.
But even with these, it is unlikely that Ukraine or Europe will be able to fill the gap left by the US intelligence sharing pause, say other experts.
“Europe does not have the intelligence capabilities that Ukraine receives from the US,” said Miron, adding that this cut will have an immediate effect on the battlefield. The US has “a monopoly on military satellites and on intelligence”, she added.
In February 2022, Elon Musk’s SpaceX-owned Starlink was activated in Ukraine after the invasion disrupted internet connectivity. Miron explained that the Ukrainian military also relies on Starlink for “communications, tactical reconnaissance and the use of FPV [first-person view] drones”.
On February 20, US negotiators told Kyiv that they would shut off Starlink if Ukraine did not reach a deal on critical minerals, the Reuters news agency reported quoting an anonymous source who was briefed on the talks. The rare earth minerals deal would allow the US to invest in Ukraine’s resources.
Musk is a close ally of Trump.
Miron said the capabilities that the Ukrainian military has due to Starlink are also “difficult to match” even though French satellite operator Eutelsat has offered an alternative to certain defence applications. While Starlink has 7,000 low earth orbit (LEO) satellites, Eutelsat has about 630, supported by 35 satellites in higher orbits.
“Part of the problem will be coordination and adjustments, which will inevitably take time and give Russia a window of opportunity to inflict more damage and pain,” Alexseev said.
