Six weeks after it departed the scene and the World Cup took centre stage, the Premier League is back and the nation’s biggest clubs are ready to resume their 2022/23 campaign.
Arsenal lead the way, closely followed by Manchester City, while the battle for next season’s Champions League spots is set to heat up from here on out.
Newcastle United and Tottenham Hotspur are currently occupying the last couple of those positions, but both Manchester United and Liverpool will hope for more consistency once they are back in action – and Chelsea will not be giving up the chase either.
But which of them will achieve their objectives for the season and which will fall short?
Here are The Independent’s sports writers’ predictions of how the season will pan out from this point for those challenging at he top of the Premier League.
Title talk: Arsenal and Man City
Lawrence Ostlere, assistant sports editor: I think Arsenal will still be top of the Premier League when they meet City in mid-February at the Emirates (City have go to Chelsea, Man United and play Spurs twice in January), and that will then be a massive game which either gives the Gunners momentum for a genuine title push or completely deflates their challenge. It would be great to see City pushed all the way, but Gabriel Jesus’s injury feels costly for such a thin squad.
Alex Pattle, sports reporter: It’s felt since day one like Arsenal will eventually run out of steam, and that it’s just a matter of when. With Gabriel Jesus now out injured, I think that will happen earlier than it otherwise might have with Arsenal ultimately slipping to third or fourth by the end of the season. All the while, Man City will take over, as Erling Haaland picks up where he left off to devastating effect against defenders fatigued by the World Cup.
Luke Baker, sports editor: I’m a Mikel Arteta believer (his David Brent-esque moments in All or Nothing aside) and I think the Gunners will be able to push Man City to the bitter end of the season. Losing Gabriel Jesus is a blow but he wasn’t contributing from a scoring perspective just prior to the World Cup, and I think Eddie Nketiah et al can hold down the fort. Having said that, with a rampaging Erling Haaland, City will ultimately just pip them to the title in a classic race.
Kieran Jackson, sports reporter: Leeds United, beware. Erling Haaland will be well-rested as he returns to Premier League action on December 28 and Manchester City’s strength in depth means that, come February or March, they’ll overtake Arsenal and speed off into the sunset. Mikel Arteta’s Gunners have overachieved so far, but face a tough run of games in January without their star No 9, Gabriel Jesus. Can Eddie Nketiah take on that star mantle? Judging by the back end of last season, I think not.
Karl Matchett, sports reporter: Arsenal still haven’t proven enough at this point. It’s easy to forget how ludicrously relentless you now need to be in the Premier League to even have a sniff of a title fight, and despite having often seen fans say they’ve now done it for half a season...firstly, it’s not, it’s not even 40 per cent of a campaign yet, and secondly, it is still nowhere near enough. I think City zoom past them by mid-February, by which time a rested Erling Haaland should just about hit the 250-goal mark.
Challengers or pretenders? Newcastle and Tottenham
LO: Newcastle were probably the side most hindered by the World Cup break, given the incredible run they were on. But the fact they have no European football means Eddie Howe can throw everything at this bid for the top four, and I think they will make it. I expect Tottenham to compete with Manchester United and Liverpool for fourth but just miss out.
AP: Third-placed Newcastle could have done without this halting of momentum, as I’m really not sure whether their run has been all form or down to a healthy helping of class. The table is tight enough around them for me to feel that they’ll slip out of the European spots come the end of the season. As for Tottenham, they’ve been far too inconsistent, and I think that will see them drift from fourth into the Europa League places.
LB: Harry Kane looked knackered before the World Cup and his exploits in Qatar won’t exactly have freshened him up. Spurs have to find a way to give him a rest from time to time. I believe they’ll do that and end up taking third spot. Newcastle have been incredibly impressive so far but I still think they’ll fade and ultimately finish outside the top four.
KJ: The exploits of Harry Kane, Heung-min Son and Hugo Lloris in Qatar may come back to bite Antonio Conte’s Spurs, who have been inconsistent up to this point anyway. With Champions League knockout games to come too, they will do very well to finish in the top four once again. As for Newcastle, there is a sense that the mid-season break came at just the wrong time – but a European spot would still be a decent achievement.
KM: I’m going against the grain with some of these earlier answers, but I think not having European action to get in the way is going to help Newcastle big time. One decent January addition and the return to full fitness of Alexander Isak could be two huge factors. I’m backing them to finish top four, and Spurs to be all too brittle and slide away.
Northwest underachievers: Man United and Liverpool
LO: United have a good spirit and I think the departure of Cristiano Ronaldo will only boost squad harmony, as well as Erik ten Hag’s authority; I’m backing them to squeeze into the top four at the expense of Liverpool, unless Jurgen Klopp gets a big January signing or two in midfield.
AP: United seemed to be slowly building towards something, and I think Cristiano Ronaldo’s exit will help them, in as much as it will bring greater clarity to the club at least. I’ll back them to round out the Champions League spots, just, with Liverpool surely only getting better as the season progresses to ultimately finish third.
LB: Liverpool will come absolutely flying out of the traps in January with Mo Salah finally having had a break from football for the first time since, I dunno, under-13s level? With the likes of Andy Robertson and Joe Gomez refreshed, and Trent Alexander-Arnold having a point to prove, I’m backing them to hit their straps and nick either third or fourth spot. Without the ridiculous Ronaldo sideshow, Erik ten Hag can concentrate on bringing stability to Manchester United and I think they’ll beat Barcelona in Europe, have a generally strong second half of the campaign but finish fifth.
KJ: Liverpool have the biggest point to prove after a somewhat bizarre opening half of the season when they beat Manchester City and Tottenham but lost to Nottingham Forest and Leeds. With Mo Salah rested and not many of the stars reaching the latter stages in Qatar, Jurgen Klopp’s side will be hungry to get straight on the winning train. Expect a 2020/21-esque charge to the top four. Manchester United, meanwhile, and their boss Erik ten Hag will be relieved to see the Ronaldo soap opera conclude - and it could be the best thing which happens to this squad. Should also finish in the top four.
KM: I’,m not sure if United have quite the right balance yet, but they’ve definitely improved at home from a defensive viewpoint. Can they keep that going while being more adventurous and likely to score though? I think another year down the line with Ten Hag they’ll be looking very good, but this season is about reform and rediscovering direction. Fifth for them. Liverpool probably need an addition centrally, but they also now need to either add an attacking option or get fortunate with the fitness of Salah, Roberto Firmino and Darwin Nunez. My view is they’ll still get top four, but that Champions League tie with Real Madrid is so interesting – do they go all-in on European success and potentially rest a few in the odd league game, risking even fourth to do that?
And finally: What are Chelsea doing?
LO: It’s still hard to say exactly what the plan is at Chelsea: time will tell but the arrival of recruitment experts from Brighton and RB Leipzig would suggest they aim to bring in rough diamonds rather than established world-class talent. If that is the case then it could be quite a while until Graham Potter gets Chelsea challenging for titles – I’d love to see him given time to build something but I suspect they’ll finish outside the top six and he’ll be under big pressure by the summer.
AP: Sacking Graham Potter in the summer, probably. Fairly or unfairly, I think the new owners will give in to the lure of a bigger name at Potter’s expense. I could see them pulling the trigger sooner than the end of the season, if results don’t pick up by the end of February, for example.
LB: What are Chelsea doing? Hopefully allowing Graham Potter time to build something at Stamford Bridge. For no particular reason, I’m going to give the owners the benefit of the doubt and say they will keep him on, even though a mediocre second half of the season will only see them finish seventh in the table. It is Chelsea though, so they’ll probably also inexplicably win the Champions League despite their medicority...
KJ: I worry for Graham Potter, I really do. New owners or not, he needs a result and the first game back at home to Bournemouth in the Premier League on 27 December is so vital. He needs a win, with the Blues having not won in their last five league games. Should he get over this slump, he may well be given time and January funds to rebuild an odd-looking squad. If not, it might be curtains before the season is out.
KM: I’m going to assume the board were not ridiculous, obnoxious or arrogant enough to believe they could just transplant a talented coach into all the upheaval and expect him to immediately fit. There’s got to be more of a plan and path toward sustained progress than that, otherwise what was the point? Graham Potter was always going to need time – not for the team, but for himself. You cannot fathom the difference in expectations between clubs in the middle and the top of the Premier League until you’re right in the middle of it. He has to adjust his mindset to that, and it wasn’t going to happen overnight. Outside the top five, but Potter stays.
