The extraordinary arrest of the former prime minister of Pakistan Imran Khan on charges of corruption on 9 May triggered nationwide protests and the deployment of the army on the streets. Thousands of people were detained and at least nine died in the violence.
Since his release on 12 May, after his arrest was declared illegal, Khan has escalated his criticism of the country’s powerful military establishment, accusing them of ordering his imprisonment. The government said it would rearrest Khan as soon as it could, ensuring that Pakistan’s political volatility shows no signs of easing soon.
How did the former cricketer get into politics?
Khan entered politics in the mid-1990s as the leader of a newly formed political party, the Pakistan Movement for Justice, or the PTI. The young, popular former cricketer with anti-establishment politics quickly captured the country’s attention. He presented an alternative to the political establishment which was, perhaps ironically, riddled with allegations of corruption. “Both parties at the time were saddled with claims that they had become personal fiefdoms and that Pakistan had become entrenched in dynastic politics,” said Dr Farzana Shaikh, an associate fellow at Chatham House.
As an anti-corruption figure, Khan also seemed to be an attractive choice for the military establishment. It took a number of years to get his party off the ground, but by 2018 Khan had enough support to win the election. It was not a landslide though – Khan still had to work with opposition parties as the leader of a coalition government but failed to build a consensus.
As a result, the opposition would not cooperate and Khan quickly found his reform programme grinding to a halt. As the political situation in parliament deteriorated, “things were also going pear shaped with the military, the main reason being his decision to interfere in military appointments, which was a red line for them”, Shaikh said. This, in tandem with foreign policy choices that were hostile to the US, led to a political crisis that culminated in various groups coming together to oust Khan in 2022.
What has happened since he left power?
Since his ousting last year after a parliamentary vote of no-confidence, Khan has spearheaded a campaign against the new government over its economic mismanagement and its relationship with his former allies in Pakistan’s influential military. Khan has accused the army and the current prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, of being behind the assassination attempt he survived last November – an allegation vehemently denied.
In turn, the government has levelled a host of corruption charges against Khan. After Khan was ejected from office last year, the new regime claimed that while in government he had struck a quid pro quid deal with a big property tycoon in Pakistan causing a loss of more than $239m (£190m) to the national exchequer. Khan denies these allegations, which are part of a mounting effort by the government and military to ensure he cannot run for office again.
On 9 May, Khan was arrested by almost 100 paramilitary officers as he attended a bail hearing for a corruption case. His party, PTI, called it an “illegal abduction” and tens of thousands of Khan loyalists took to the streets in violent protest. Khan was held in custody until the police were forced to release him on 12 May, after the supreme court declared his arrest on court premises to be “illegal and invalid” and he was granted bail.
Khan returned home to Lahore and has since alleged that the country’s powerful military establishment was behind his arrest. The government says it will rearrest Khan as soon as the law allows.
What is the background to his arrest?
Khan has more than 100 cases registered against him, on everything from sedition and corruption, to terrorism and even blasphemy. Whatever the full truth of the latest charges, there is little doubt his arrest is a politically motivated attempt to ensure he does not run for office again.
Shaikh says this kind of subterfuge is nothing new in Pakistan. “Cases being registered against politicians generally on charges of corruption is a game that all parties have played.” Khan himself has been accused of using this power against opposition leaders.
How is Pakistan doing more generally?
Pakistan is facing an economic crisis. Inflation has risen to 36.4%, meaning people cannot afford basic necessities including healthcare. Devastating floods last year submerged much of the country under water. Pakistan is on the edge of defaulting on its debt and is still waiting for a $1.1bn bailout from the IMF, which would have little impact on the $100bn total. Its usual backers, such as Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, have not come forward with the kind of assistance offered in the past.
Counterintuitively, the dire economic situation has been Khan’s political saviour. “During Imran Khan’s tenure in office the economy was tanking slowly, and much of that has to do with the fact that he had alienated all the political parties to such an extent that no one would help him deliver on his economic programme,” said Shaikh. “So during his last year in office he saw his popularity plummet.”
However, the failure of the government to resolve this crisis, which has become even more acute in the last year, has meant the blame has shifted to them. Shaikh said: “Khan is a very popular man at the moment, and if elections were to be held there is no doubt that he would come in with a huge majority.”
What will happen next?
This political and economic crisis threatens to tip Pakistan into a period of instability and unrest, although this is not inevitable. “Stability can be restored, but that depends very much on political parties sitting together and resuming dialogue,” Shaikh said.
The future of Pakistan’s already fragile democracy is at stake. Khan is demanding that both provincial and general elections take place soon, and has threatened mass protests if the ruling government does not agree to dates. Members of the ruling coalition have also begun their own protest against the supreme court, accusing it of bias towards Khan.
Many fear that if the turmoil continues, the army will try to step in and take control, as has happened repeatedly in the past.
