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ABC News
ABC News
National
Lucy Sweeney and Rebecca Armitage

How Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine is forcing his friends to choose between Russia and the West

Hungary's Viktor Orbán and Serbia's Aleksandar Vučić are both maintaining tricky friendships with Vladimir Putin. (Reuters/Kremlin: Bernadett Szabo, Hannah McKay, Alexei Sputnik)

As Vladimir Putin's troops rolled into Ukraine in late February, the imagery of Russian tanks lining up at the border was accompanied by a cacophony of outrage from world leaders.

But it is sometimes silence that speaks the loudest, and in eastern Europe, a handful of Russia's neighbours — ruled by some longtime friends of Vladimir Putin — remained notably quiet.

The consequences for those seen by the West as enabling Mr Putin's war are now becoming clear, with sanctions targeting wealthy Russian oligarchs and the President's inner circle.

Just last week, Australia followed the EU and US in extending harsh sanctions to Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, for providing strategic support to Russia and its military. 

Elsewhere, those who have taken a "neutral" stance on Ukraine appear to have been handsomely rewarded at home.

Two of Mr Putin's allies in eastern Europe have extended their decade-long reigns this week with "landslide" election victories.

Rose Gottemoeller, a nonresident senior fellow in Carnegie's Nuclear Policy Program, told a recent forum the "bad boys of NATO" — Poland, Hungary and Turkey — had been playing largely positive roles in the crisis so far.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdoğan has been hosting peace talks in Istanbul, while Poland has received more than half of the 4.2 million refugees fleeing Ukraine and Hungary has accepted almost 400,000.

But it remains to be seen how far that support will stretch.

As the death toll climbs in Ukraine and pressure mounts for neighbours to intervene, those who have simultaneously maintained friendships with the West and Russia may soon be forced to make their allegiances known. 

Hungary's 'illiberal' leader Viktor Orbán has deep ties with Vladimir Putin

Vladimir Putin has been a close ally of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.  (Reuters: Laszlo Balogh)

Perhaps Vladimir Putin's closest friend inside the European Union and NATO is Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. 

He has led the ultra-conservative Fidesz party for the majority of the past three decades and this week declared an election victory securing him a fourth consecutive term as Prime Minister

Mr Orbán has shifted the once centre-right, pro-European party towards far-right nationalism and "traditional Christian values", railing against immigration, LGBTQ+ rights and the interference of "EU bureaucrats". 

In 2014, he famously pledged to build a "new illiberal state" that would abandon the liberal ideals of the West, pointing to non-democratic regimes such as Putin's Russia as the way forward. 

In executing his vision, he rewrote the constitution to alter the electoral and judicial systems to his advantage and brought much of Hungary's media back under state control or that of his high-powered friends.

Viktor Orbán has brought much of Hungary's media landscape under state control.  (Reuters: Bernadett Szabo)

This year's election was expected to be the closest-run contest in years, with six separate opposition parties joining together in a bid to oust the Fidesz-led coalition. 

"We won a victory so big that you can see it from the moon, and you can certainly see it from Brussels," Mr Orbán declared in his victory speech, denouncing "opponents" in the EU as well as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenksyy.

While the opposition has levelled allegations of tampering and buying votes, there is undeniable support for Mr Orbán, particularly in rural areas.

Outside Budapest, the reach of independent media is extremely limited and commentators suspect the campaign pivot from domestic issues to the threat of war on Hungary's doorstep paid off.  

In mid-March, when the leaders of fellow Visegrad 4 members Czech Republic and Poland took a train to Kyiv to offer support to Mr Zelenskyy, Mr Orbán opted to stay at home.

Hungary did sign the UN agreement condemning Mr Putin's war and has so far not opposed EU sanctions against Russia, but Mr Orbán has tried to draw the line at naming or penalising his longtime ally directly.

Under pressure from NATO and the European Union, Mr Orbán reversed hardline border policies to make way for Ukrainian refugees fleeing war and agreed to allow NATO weapons to be transported through his territory towards the front line.

But the real test will be whether he can remain steadfast in his refusal to cut off imports of Russian oil and gas into the country.

Just last year, Mr Orbán signed a 15-year deal with Russian firm Gazprom to supply natural gas accounting for about half of Hungary's annual consumption, via routes that avoid neighbouring Ukraine. 

Russia's state-owned nuclear company Rosatom is also funding the proposed expansion of Hungary's Paks nuclear power plant — another deal Viktor Orbán's government is standing by. 

There are suggestions from members of the European Parliament that his allegiances could cost Hungary billions in EU funding.  

Several leaders, including Mr Zelenskyy himself, have warned it is time for Hungary to pick a side.

In a speech to the EU Council, the Ukrainian President addressed Mr Orbán directly: 

"Hungary, I want to stop here and be honest. Once and for all. You have to decide for yourself who you are with." 

Serbia also faces unprecedented pressure to unfriend Putin

Vladimir Putin has supported Serbia's Alexandar Vučić by way of cheap gas prices and opposing Kosovo's independence. (Reuters/Pool: Maxim Shipenkov)

Standing six-foot-six, Serbia's strongman Aleksandar Vučić towers over his Russian ally. But in many ways, the Serbian President has spent his decade in public life crafting an image of himself as a mini Vladimir Putin.

Mr Vučić has faced accusations of corruption, cronyism and voter intimidation. 

And just like the Russian leader, Mr Vučić knows the power of managing the message. 

His critics claim that a small band of loyal tycoons buy up advertising space from broadcast and digital outlets that provide friendly coverage of President Vučić.

Those that dare criticise him are starved of advertising income

While Russia and Serbia have been steadfast allies for centuries, linked by their Slavic and Orthodox Christian heritage, Mr Putin and Mr Vučić have tightened this bond even further.

The country is almost entirely dependent on Russian gas and oil and Mr Vučić has hailed Vladimir Putin as a "best friend" and a "kingmaker".

Even while lavishing Mr Putin with praise, the Serbian leader was also wooing the West, making a bid for his nation to join the European Union. 

Russia's war in Ukraine threatens to throw Serbia's balancing act off-kilter. 

While President Vučić voted in favour of a UN resolution condemning the invasion, he has also steadfastly refused to impose sanctions on Russia. 

"These days are like a nightmare for me, [they are] some of the hardest days of my career," Mr Vučić  said of the pressure from the EU to impose sanctions.

"The situation is very difficult. I cannot remember anything of the kind. Each hour is like a year. I have grown 10 years older in the past four days."

While Mr Vučić won presidential elections in a landslide this week, pressure to pick a side — Russia or the West — may only increase. 

It leaves Europe's 'bad boys' increasingly isolated

For his part, Vladimir Putin is hoping to deepen Russia's diplomatic ties with both Hungary and Serbia. 

The president sent both leaders his congratulations, along with hopes to strengthen the friendships "despite the difficult international situation".

He may be one of the few friends they each have left. 

With Viktor Orbán sidelined even from the Visegrad 4, eastern European specialist Jennifer McCoy told TIME the Hungarian leader was becoming increasingly isolated.

There's risk too for those closest to the Russian leader without links to the EU.

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has arguably the least to lose by pledging his support for Russia's war and has gone the furthest by leading his own troops into Ukraine to join the fight.

Head of the Chechen Republic Ramzan Kadyrov claimed to be inside Ukraine alongside Russian forces. (Reuters: Said Tsarnayev)

The President of the Chechen Republic, who inherited his position from his Putin-appointed father, has far less at stake in terms of a reputation on the international stage.

Mr Kadyrov has been accused of a slew of human rights abuses and crimes against humanity and is often referred to as Putin's "dragon" or attack dog.

But with Western sanctions starting to bite, the war is likely to have flow-on effects for Mr Kadyrov and the Chechen Republic, given it is a Russian nation-state almost entirely reliant on Kremlin grants.

As much as the past decade of cosying up to Vladimir Putin may have delivered for Europe's "bad boys", the cost of their friendships may soon become apparent.

Zelenskyy calls for Russia to be investigated for war crimes in Ukraine
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