Nearly 8,000 poor people will be hit in Liz Truss’s own back yard if she goes ahead with her plans to cut Universal Credit for 5.6million Brits.
Analysis shows 7,908 people in her South West Norfolk seat are claiming the six-in-one benefit - and face a hit if she fails to raise welfare in real terms.
Tory Cabinet ministers have more than 186,000 Universal Credit claimants in their constituencies, the House of Commons Library research says.
The biggest Cabinet postbag could be sent to Justice Secretary Brandon Lewis, who has 13,327 claimants in his seat of Great Yarmouth.
The least-affected is Environment Secretary Ranil Jayawardena, whose leafy North East Hampshire seat has just 3,882 claimants.
Work and Pensions Secretary Chloe Smith 7,497 claimants in Norwich North, while Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng has 6,946 in Spelthorne.
The research dated this summer was requested and released by the Lib Dems. The party’s Work and Pensions spokeswoman Wendy Chamberlain branded the PM “heartless”.
She said: “Thousands of people in Cabinet members' own constituencies are going to be hit hard by their own actions.
“This government could not be more out of touch with the British people.”
Boris Johnson had promised benefits would rise by inflation in April 2023.
But the PM is deciding whether to raise them by earnings - a real-terms cut.
Mirror research shows Britain’s 5.6million Universal Credit claimants will be hundreds of pounds worse off per year if the cut goes ahead.
The basic rate of Universal Credit could be £140 to £278 lower over the year if benefits rise by earnings instead of inflation.
But the real hit would be much higher, because other elements of Universal Credit would also be lower than expected.
Worried ministers were due to raise the issue in No10 this morning, though Downing Street did not say if it came up in a “political cabinet” meeting.
Former Tory leader William Hague joined the disquiet, telling Ms Truss: “Do not keep suggesting that benefits might not be indexed to inflation this winter.”
So how much would you actually be worse off if the cut goes ahead?
Final figures still aren’t in, but the picture got a bit clearer this morning. Here’s the maths we’ve done so far.
How much will benefits rise by in April 2023?
Normally, benefits rise every April by what inflation was the previous September - a figure which is being released next Wednesday.
The last CPI inflation figure for August was 9.9%, and it’s widely expected to stay about the same.
But Liz Truss has looked at raising benefits by the rise in average earnings instead.
The Mirror understands that, if she did this, it would be a 5.5% rise.
This is because the DWP looks at the rise in average total earnings in the year to May-July 2022. The final confirmed figure for this was released today.
Let’s be clear - benefits would still technically rise. But this rise would be swallowed up by soaring prices, making it a cut in real-terms.
What will this mean for my payments?
We’ve calculated what the difference would be if benefits rose by 5.5% (earnings) instead of 9.9% (inflation) next April.
Based just on the standard allowance of Universal Credit, a single person over 25 would be £14.74 worse off per month and £176.83 worse off per year.
This is because this person’s standard monthly allowance is £334.91. If it rises by 9.9%, it’ll hit £368.07. But if it rises by 5.5%, it’ll only hit £353.33.
- A couple over 25 would be £23.13 worse off per month and £277.58 worse off per year.
- A single person under 25 would be £11.67 worse off per month and £140.08 worse off per year.
- A couple both under 25 would be £18.32 worse off per month and £219.89 worse off per year.
But that’s not all - Part 1
The real loss to families would actually be much higher than what we’ve explained above.
This is because Universal Credit is not just the standard allowance. People also get payments for children and disabilities.
So we’ve done the maths on how much you’d be hit if the average Universal Credit payment - including all elements - rose by 5.5% instead 9.9%.
Now, this is only a very rough ballpark figure - because the average payment includes some elements, like housing, that don’t rise by inflation and use a separate system.
It’s also notoriously difficult to work out what it means for you, because each family has different circumstances.
But on this back-of-an-envelope maths, a couple with children - who currently get £1,065.02 a month - would be £46.86 worse off per month or £562.33 per year.
- A single person with children would be £31.90 worse off per month (£382.79 a year).
- A single person without children would be £24.68 worse off per month (£296.21 a year).
- A couple without children would be £31.90 worse off per month (£382.79 a year).
But that’s not all - Part 2
Critics say even all these numbers don’t capture the problem - because benefits are long overdue a rise already.
Rises use out-of-date data. As a result, benefits only rose by 3.1% in April 2022 - at a time when inflation was already rocketing to around 9%.
That means benefit claimants have already had to endure a real-terms cut all year. If they were hit by another one next year that’d be two in a row.
One Tory MP suggested Liz Truss will have to go further and offer more one-off payments to benefit claimants next year - even if welfare does rise with inflation.
They said: “Inevitably, even with an inflation increase that’s not the end of the story.
“Because it is based on what energy bills were in September - that’s much lower than the £2,500 we’ve now got in place.”
How the standard allowance would change, in detail
- SINGLE UNDER 25: £265.31 a month. 5.5% rise: £279.90. 9.9% rise: £291.58. Difference: £11.67
- SINGLE 25/OVER: £334.91 a month. 5.5% rise: £353.33. 9.9% rise: £368.07. Difference: £14.74
- COUPLE UNDER 25: £416.45 a month. 5.5% rise: £439.35. 9.9% rise: £457.68. Difference: £18.32
- COUPLE 25/OVER: £525.72 a month. 5.5% rise: £554.63. 9.9% rise: £577.77. Difference: £23.13
