We've all had an event in the months ahead that would benefit from us knowing the weather forecast well ahead of time.
Unfortunately, due to the nature of the atmosphere, it's impossible to predict the weather on a certain day months in advance.
At least, not with any accuracy.
But, with advanced modelling, climatologists can give you a sense of what the average conditions around that time are likely to be.
This detail is shown in the Bureau of Meteorology's long-range outlook, updated every fortnight.
The outlook can be a great tool for assessing your odds of sunshine and rain down the track.
So what can it tell you? And how can you use that information to plan for your farm, wedding or footy grand final in the months to come?
Rainfall and temperature averages up to three months ahead
The Bureau's outlook can be broken down into both rainfall and temperature, selected for one-week, two-week, one-month and three-month periods.
The most commonly used map is the "chance of above median", shown below.
When looking at this map of Australia, covered by hues of brown and yellow, it can be easy to come away thinking it's going to be a winter with very little rainfall.
But that's not exactly right.
What the map is actually telling you is the likelihood a location will receive its normal rainfall for the season or month ahead.
Below average doesn't necessarily mean no rainfall, or even low rainfall.
Technically that could be a couple of millimetres less than normal — something you would hardly notice — and still fall into that category.
So what's this map good for?
Climatologist Catherine Ganter says it is best used as a clue for what's in store, so you can decide whether to delve further into the data.
"What this map really gives us is a landing point of the likely conditions for the three months ahead," she says.
"It's not always the case, but it does often give you an idea [of where] the stronger rainfall anomalies are.
"And that's the point where you would look at another map, for instance, to see how dry it might be."
Noticeably dry, wet, hot or cold conditions
If you have chosen to delve further into the outlook, Ms Ganter says one of the most useful tools is the "chance of extremes".
This is the end of the scale where you're likely to notice a difference.
The section breaks down the likelihood a specific location will be "unusually" wet and hot, or dry and cold — which is the top and bottom 20 per cent of all records, respectively.
To use this tool best, Ms Ganter says you need to need to zoom in on your own location.
In the example below, Melbourne has a 52 per cent chance of having an unusually dry winter.
That's double the chance of an unusually dry winter, according to Ms Ganter.
"A normal chance of falling in the bottom 20 per cent is 20," she says.
So how can this information be applied in real life?
It depends on what you're using the outlook for.
But if your aim is to get a picture of how much rainfall overall you will be in for over the next few months, this section can offer insight into the areas likely to be significantly impacted.
Alternatively, if you're trying to work out the odds of your event getting rained out, it can give you a sense of what kind of weather conditions will dominate the months ahead.
Specific rainfall totals
The thing to remember with both the "chance of extremes" and "chance of above normal" is that they're relative to the location and time of year.
For example, an "unusually dry" winter in Melbourne could still rain a couple of times a week.
So if you're wanting to know how likely it is to rain on a specific day in the future, it might not give you the context you need.
But there is a way to drill down into more detail about just how much rain the outlook is betting on.
Ms Ganter says to do this, you can use one of two tools — the "chance of at least", and "outlook scenarios".
This will assign a percentage likelihood to certain rainfall totals.
For example, in the map below Brisbane has a 75 per cent chance of receiving between five and 10 millimetres of rain in July.
The advantage of having this information, again, depends on what you're using it for and what you consider reasonable odds to be.
But if the outlook is showing a 75 per cent chance of over 100mm in the month, it's probably a safe bet it's going to be raining fairly regularly.
And if the rainfall figures are on the lower end of the scale, like in the Brisbane example, you might have more luck getting a dry day.
Specific temperatures
The outlook for temperature can be navigated in much the same way for extremes, although it doesn't get into quite the finite detail about specific temperatures that rainfall does.
Instead, you're able to see how much warmer or cooler than normal a place is expected to be, on average, in degrees.
But just like rainfall, when considering this information you have to apply context about the time of year and what kinds of temperatures matter.
For instance, four degrees warmer than normal in winter might sound like a lot, but still be quite mild, whereas four degrees cooler than normal in winter could feel quite cool.
Why doesn't the Bureau give day-to-day forecasts for the months ahead?
While it would be helpful to have a three-month detailed forecast, Ms Ganter says the simple answer is it wouldn't be very accurate.
"The further we look ahead, the more those small, random changes can amplify into different weather patterns," she says.
Instead, she says the Bureau tries to offer the most reliable information it can, so people can assess their own risk.
"We are trying to highlight the risks for the season ahead, and allow people to make their own decisions based on percentage likelihoods," she says.
