Both the Denver Nuggets and Boston Celtics enter Friday’s meeting at the Garden as 8-3 teams riding four-game winning streaks.
During their streaks, the Celtics have been the better offensive team, joining the Jazz as the only teams with offensive ratings better than 120.0 in the last four games — the Nuggets are third at 117.7. However, Denver has been the better defensive team in that stretch by more than six points.
While that may sound surprising, it shouldn’t be considering the teams they played — San Antonio twice, OKC and Indiana. On the season, their 112.0 rating is only one spot higher than 22nd-ranked Boston, which has seen slippage this year without Robert Williams to anchor the middle.
With similar defenses and Boston having a slightly superior offense, it should be no surprise the Celtics are favored at home. The spread is 4.5 points, and I like the home team to cover.
For one, the Nuggets are playing their third straight game on the road, and they barely eked by the Pacers on Wednesday after rookie Bennedict Mathurin dropped 30 on them.
But then Jayson Tatum is averaging 33 points in his last four games, and he and Jaylen Brown both hit 30 in Wednesday’s 16-point win over the Pistons. The Nuggets won’t have an answer for either.
I like the over on 28.5 points for Tatum.
And while Boston’s defense has taken a step back this year, they’ve been solid against the three and keep opponent assists down, areas the Nuggets typically excel. So unless Denver gets an incredible individual performance from Nikola Jokic or someone else, I don’t think they find a way to cover.
Prince’s Prediction: Celtics win 122-117
