Thirty-eight yards.
That’s how many rushing yards the Houston Texans left M&T Bank Stadium with after a devastating 34-10 loss to the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC divisional round.
Starting running back Devin Singletary had nine carries for just 22 yards. Rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud was able to add nine more on scrambles while backup running back Dare Ogunbowale chipped in two carries for seven yards. Altogether, they had accounted for an abysmal ground performance that featured just one carry over 10 yards and left the passing game out to dry.
How dreadful was the Houston running game yesterday? Devin Singletary carried 9 times for 22 yards.
He was stuffed on 5 of his 9 carries. He rushed for -.49 EPA/carry, the lowest value of any starting back in a game for Houston this year.
Whole unit has to improve #WeAreTexans pic.twitter.com/J3RzSNsRKV
— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) January 21, 2024
As such, it was no surprise what happened next. Houston was unable to manipulate any of Baltimore’s defensive looks and the variety of coverages and designer blitzes the Ravens proceeded to throw at Stroud were devastating. Houston scored only three offensive points the entire game.
It’s made the most pressing question for the Texans’ offseason a very apparent one to most fans as they transition towards free agency, the draft, and preparation for the 2024 season.
How can Houston fix their run game?
Nick Caserio has two years to create a roster that can compete with Kansas City and Baltimore around quarterback C.J. Stroud before he becomes the highest paid player in NFL history and the first $300M QB.
That off-season of urgency starts now, can't wait to see it #WeAreTexans pic.twitter.com/Z5g5udDBec
— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) January 22, 2024
It’s going to be a multi-faceted question for head coach DeMeco Ryans, general manager Nick Caserio, and whoever is tasked to serve as Houston’s offensive coordinator in 2024. At this time, Bobby Slowik is still interviewing with multiple teams for their head coaching positions.
It’s likely that Slowik, an internal promotion such as quarterbacks coach Jerod Johnson, or another coach from the same style of offense that yielded Stroud his great success as a rookie. Under that scenario, the first thing that football operations may need to consider is simply patience.
Houston has multiple young offensive lineman on the roster that could potentially take leaps in 2024. Second-round pick Juice Scruggs will almost certainly improve as a second year NFL player and will have the added boost of being moved from left guard back to his natural position at center. Late round investments such as Jarrett Patterson and former Pittsburgh Steeler Kendrick Green showed promise prior to season ending injuries and will both play their second year in the system.
Finally, it would be amiss not to think about Kenyon Green. The former 15th overall pick in 2022 from Texas A&M, Green was drafted to be a tone-setting, run-mauling guard for head coach Lovie Smith’s team. He had a dreadful rookie season that was followed up by a sophomore campaign that never happened due to injury.
The Houston Texans are operating in a reality where there’s a strong argument that the most important player to improve this off-season will be Kenyon Green.
He was drafted to be an elite run-mauling guard and there might not be a more impactful addition on offense #WeAreTexans
— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) January 24, 2024
If Green is able to get healthy and play to the potential he was drafted, he could be exactly what the Texans need in 2024. There’s arguably no greater avenue for improvement than if their formerly elite prospect can become what draft pundits projected him to be.
Beyond the young players, history suggests everyone improves during Year 2 of the zone-based Shanahan scheme.
The 2018 San Francisco 49ers, 2020 Green Bay Packers, and 2023 Miami Dolphins all had enormous leaps in yards per carry during their second year under Kyle Shanahan, Matt LaFleur and Mike McDaniel, respectively. It’s a difficult scheme that both linemen and running backs naturally find more success in with more time to slow down and understand conceptually where the gains are going to come from.
Something to consider with how Houston fixes their run game. Year 1 vs. Year 2 splits for that scheme.
SF Shanahan: 4.1 ypc '17 : 4.5 ypc '18
GB LaFleur: 4.4 ypc '19 : 4.8 ypc '20
MIA McDaniel: 4.3 ypc '22 : 5.1 ypc '23Teams notably improve running zone in Year 2 #WeAreTexans
— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) January 25, 2024
Those factors alone, better health and expected internal improvement, are likely enough where Ryans and Slowik can expect to be better in 2024. That’s before factoring in potential external additions.
Houston has $72 million in salary cap space and it’s going to allow for a bevy of upgrades across the board. They also have a draft pick in every single round, including 23rd overall, and that could yield 2-3 new starters. There are significant needs on both sides of the football and it’s hard to imagine multiple investments that would aid the running game specifically, but a few are feasible.
The free agent running back class is a loaded one and includes names like Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs and Tony Pollard. If the Texans want to make a splash and attempt to maximize their existing, expensive offensive line, plugging in a former All-Pro like Barkley or Jacobs would make a lot of sense. They could be asked to more reliably hit home runs while also picking up the available yardage they saw with Singletary in 2023.
This is a preliminary take and subject to change but…
I’m probably going to be someone who pushes for using cap space on an A-tier running back available like Saquon Barkley or Josh Jacobs.
First free agency tweet of the off-season, cheers 🍻 #WeAreTexans
— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) January 21, 2024
A three-year, $30 million deal that expires as Stroud prepares to sign his quarterback extension could be the right type of deal for Houston to target for improving a “luxury” position like running back. The rival Indianapolis Colts recently completed a similar deal with their star back Jonathan Taylor.
Singletary could be a very affordable re-sign option for Houston, as well. He almost certainly would have topped 1,000 yards if the team had pivoted to his services earlier in the season. Whether it’s Singletary alone, or Singletary in conjunction with one of the names above, he could be part of a far more lethal 2024 rushing attack.
For the offensive line, it’s difficult to envision more huge investments considering what the team has already spent on their front-five. However, it’s possible they pursue a scheme specific fit as they did with Kendrick Green in the $3-6 million range in free agency for further competition at left guard.
Finally, the offense becoming more explosive will only help the run game as defenses are forced to account for the pass.
The team could make a big splash in free agency with a player such as Texas native Mike Evans or someone like Calvin Ridley. Caserio could also pursue a more affordable option such as former Bengal Tyler Boyd or former Commander Curtis Samuel. The draft also projects as a strong place for a receiver.
The Day 2 crop of receivers includes names like the Texas Longhorn duo Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell, Washington’s James Polk and Western Kentucky’s Malachi Corley. All of them would provide an affordable option to plug in next to Nico Collins and Tank Dell for a more explosive passing offense.
None of this is a simple equation for the front office. There’s a risk/reward element to consider and lots of questions about resource allocation to answer as they look to create a more comprehensive 2024 offense. However, for fans, the optimism is readily apparent with multiple avenues that they can await that improvement.
