The Oklahoma City Thunder dismantled the Denver Nuggets in their first matchup of the season. With both Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon sidelined for the Nuggets on Wednesday evening, we might have expected a similar result a second time around. And with five minutes remaining in the third quarter, Denver found itself down 10.
Denver couldn’t slow Oklahoma City’s offense in the first half, so it turned to Peyton Watson. The young defensive ace took on Chet Holmgren as his primary defender, with Nikola Jokic roaming off of the Thunder’s worst guard (usually Lu Dort or Alex Caruso). This stymied Holmgren’s speed and agility, and tempted the Thunder to funnel the ball to their most limited offensive player to drive at Jokic.
denver’s adjustment to defend chet holmgren with peyton watson and stick jokic on dort/caruso to bait them into creation helped them win this game.
shoutout to peyton watson, who dominated all night on defense pic.twitter.com/C0KN0ebfJQ
— ben pfeifer (@bjpf_) November 8, 2024
Adjustments won the Nuggets the game against the Thunder. Denver completed its comeback, inching out a two-point victory. In the first half, the Thunder put up a scorching 122.2 offensive rating. In the second half, that number dropped to 103.7.
Watson played the defensive game of his life, tallying three blocks and four steals. He covers giant areas of the court as an off-ball defender, which allows the Nuggets to double the ball aggressively. They sent more pressure at the Thunder than they did in their first meeting, largely due to Watson’s support.
his offense isn’t there yet but peyton watson’s ground coverage and rotational ability are such luxuries for denver
closes out to jdub, forces a pass and rotates to guard joe, and his presence lets denver double the ball pic.twitter.com/cIfzKE0zkI
— ben pfeifer (@bjpf_) November 7, 2024
His defense helped hold Chet Holmgren to 15 points on 14 shots. In the first half, the Thunder shot 12-of-17 (70.6 percent) in the restricted area. During the second half, its efficiency dropped to 9-of-22 (40.9 percent) in the restricted area. Parking Watson at the rim adds another layer of rim protection, while Jokic can win with his dexterous hands on the perimeter.
Head coach Michael Malone’s trust in his young talent — Watson, Christian Braun and Julian Strawther — helped fuel Denver’s most important runs. Despite Russell Westbrook’s 29-point, six-assist night, the Nuggets’ best lineups featured Strawther instead of Westbrook.
On the night, Strawther led the Nuggets in plus-minus with a plus-12. Denver’s most successful five-man lineup included four starters (Jokic, Braun, Watson, Porter Jr.), with Strawther in for Westbrook. That group outscored the Thunder by 17 points in its 11 minutes, driving Denver’s third-quarter comeback and closing stretch.
With five minutes remaining in the third, Strawther and the starters orchestrated a 14-2 run to tie the game. For the majority of the final eight minutes, the group closed the game with a 20-15 cushion. Strawther’s spacing was invaluable in opening up chances for Jokic to drive. The difference between these lineups and the ones Denver ran in the previous matchup is stark.
look at the difference in spacing tonight for denver with strawther subbed in for westbrook. so much more room for jokic to work.
strawther was a team high +12 against OKC and the starters + strawther was a +17 in 11 mins. hope we see this more going forward https://t.co/zVaFFVSjSW pic.twitter.com/Y2964fjufP
— ben pfeifer (@bjpf_) November 8, 2024
Strawther scored nine points on the night and tossed six assists. Braun scored a healthy 24 points, eating off of cuts, rebounds and spot-up threes playing alongside Jokic. Braun and Strawther pair smoothly — their shotmaking and off-ball movement boosting one another. On the season, Denver is plus-22 in the 74 minutes those two have shared the floor.
To close the game, Jokic spent his defensive time roaming off of Alex Caruso. This year, he’s shooting a frigid 14.3 percent from three and 35.3 percent on twos, so Jokic had no trouble playing free safety. It’s a smart adjustment for the Nuggets in this specific matchup, where Oklahoma City often plays one or two players light on creation.
The Thunder could consider closing with Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins in this case, the latter of which has made a legitimate creation leap this season. Losing out on Alex Caruso and Lu Dort’s defense hurts, but Oklahoma City’s three stars are strong enough defenders to compensate. Playing its five most dynamic offensive players to end games will help it counter strategies like this one.
Against these kinds of matchups, Holmgren will adapt and learn. But the Thunder could make his life easier, especially as an off-ball mover. Holmgren sets lots of ball screens but could benefit from more motion and screens to free him up. According to tracking by @JaseHoops on Twitter, Holmgren spends just 4.3 percent of his possessions as a pop big and 8.6 percent as an off-screen shooter. Both of those numbers could see increases.
Chet Holmgren offensive role scoring in first 8 games (per my tracking) pic.twitter.com/ZeMmrAURvG
— Jase (@jasehoops) November 8, 2024
Even considering Denver’s wise tinkering, good fortune was on its side all night. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander turned the ball over eight times, which is tied for the most he’s ever had in a single game. Russell Westbrook made three of his four triples, despite shooting 28.6 percent from deep on the year. And it’s worth noting Isaiah Hartenstein’s absence, who would help the Thunder better check Jokic.
Denver deserves credit for its comeback victory. With two starters sidelined, the Nuggets handed Oklahoma City its first loss of the season. Their championship DNA helped them steal their best win of the season. To reach the mountaintop once again, they’ll need to continue innovating and experimenting.
