It’s NBA lottery time and, obviously, every team in the league’s bottom (or top?) 14 teams are hoping for a bit of luck in jumping to the top here.
It’s for good reason — everyone knows who is waiting at the top of the draft. The 7-foot-5 basketball phenom Victor Wembanyama is going to change the trajectory of some lucky NBA team very, very quickly.
But while everyone else is looking for a shot at Wembanyama, the Dallas Mavericks are sitting there toward the bottom of the lottery just desperately hoping that they don’t just get kicked out of the club.
The Mavericks need some luck here — but it’s a different kind of luck. Let’s dive into it.
Wait, what's going on with the Mavericks?
The Dallas Mavericks are currently sitting at 10th in the NBA draft lottery right now, which is a solid spot.
It’s obviously not a top pick, but there’s going to be talent in this draft around No. 10. And the Mavericks also have around a 14% chance of jumping into the top 4, which isn’t bad at all. They could legitimately draft a player that could help them immediately here while also keeping their salaries down.
So what's the problem?
The problem is that, as much as they have a chance of jumping into the top 4, they also have as much of a chance as going in the other direction.
The teams behind Dallas could jump up as well, starting with Oklahoma City who has an 8% chance of jumping up in the lottery. That’s a problem for Dallas because, if either the Thunder, the Pelicans or the Bulls pick moves up, then the Mavericks would fall down.
And that means Dallas would lose its pick.
The Mavericks could lose their pick?
Yes. The Mavericks’ current pick was traded to the Knicks in the Kristaps Porzingis trade all those years ago.
But the pick is top 10 protected, meaning the Mavericks only just made the cut in likely keeping the pick. What will probably happen is that Dallas will just pick 10th and none of this will truly be a worry. But if they move down at all, this pick goes to the Knicks. And that’s a disaster for the Mavs.
Yeah, that wouldn't be good for Dallas
The Mavericks are in a spot where the team has a generational talent in Luka Doncic but is very obviously struggling to build around him.
Dallas has seen multiple co-stars come and go at this point from Porzingis to Jaylen Brunson and, now, potentially Kyrie Irving should he choose to move on from Dallas. That’s a huge risk for the Mavericks considering everything they traded to get Irving, but it’s certainly a possibility.
That’s why keeping this pick is so important. It’s a talent upgrade on the margins at one of the cheapest rates possible considering the player will be on a rookie-scale contract. That’s exactly the sort of thing Dallas needs.
And it’s not even necessarily important they have this pick just to keep it — the Mavericks could package it in a deal for some other talent if the team sees an opportunity to grab a talent somewhere.
Dallas needs this pick. Badly. The Mavs just need to hold serve to get it. Fans better hope they do.
