The race for the #1 overall pick in the upcoming NFL Draft is heating up. As is stands after the Week 13 action, there are three teams that are tied for the worst record at 2-10, and another that has yet to have a bye week that is sitting at 3-10.
But the tiebreaker is based on each team’s strength of schedule (SOS), and that is why the Jacksonville Jaguars may have the upper hand in the deciding weeks.
Jaguars Currently Hold The #1 Overall Pick In 2025 NFL Draft
With a combined opponent winning percentage of .498, it is the Jaguars who currently sit in the top spot. They are tied in terms of record with the Las Vegas Raiders and New York Giants, but those two teams have played tougher schedules so far, putting them in the 2nd and 3rd spots when it comes to the current draft order.
It is almost a foregone conclusion that Jacksonville will end up with one of the softest schedules in the entire NFL this season. In addition to the sub-.500 mark that their opponents have had thus far, the combined winning percentage of the five teams left on their schedule is an abysmal .279. In comparison, the Giants have a remaining SOS of .548, with the Raiders at .433.
During the final five weeks of the season, the Jaguars will take on the Colts, Jets, Raiders, and still have two matchups against the Titans.
| Team | Record | Current SOS | Remaining SOS |
| Jaguars | 2-10 | .498 | .279 |
| Raiders | 2-10 | .531 | .433 |
| Giants | 2-10 | .538 | .548 |
| Patriots | 3-10 | .461 | .708 |
But an easy schedule provides plenty of opportunity for Jacksonville to play themselves out of the running. And it wouldn’t be easy, given that nearly all of their remaining opponents are within a single game of taking over the top spot themselves.
So if the Jaguars were to “tank”, what would be their course of action?
The answer is simple: no Trevor Lawrence for the rest of the season.
Should They Bench Trevor Lawrence For The Rest Of The Year?
It was just a week ago that Lawrence’s playing status was in question. The quarterback suffered a shoulder injury during the team’s Week 9 game against the Eagles, and subsequently missed two contests while rehabbing. While he was itching to get back onto the playing field, Lawrence himself said that he was considering having surgery on the sprained AC joint, a quote that came just days before Jacksonville’s game against the Texans.
He wound up playing in that game against Houston, and we all saw how his day ended. A vicious and controversial hit by Texans’ linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair forced Lawrence out of the game with what was an obvious concussion, which the defender was suspended 3 games for. The 25-year-old quarterback has been placed in concussion protocol, and his status moving forward is in question.
The question now becomes whether the Jaguars are in any rush to get Trevor Lawrence back on the field. There is little left to play for in terms of positives for the 2024 season, and the team should already be looking ahead and perhaps even evaluating the lesser-used talent on their roster.
That would certainly help with any potential tanking efforts. It would start with Lawrence, whose absence was obvious in the two games that he missed. With Mac Jones under center in Weeks 10 and 11, Jacksonville’s offense was sub-par at best. They managed to score just a single touchdown during the 8 quarters, and their total point output between the two games was 13. Jones threw 0 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, and had a total of 249 passing yards.
Granted, they played those two games against two NFC powerhouses in the Lions and Vikings. And Jones actually played well in the game against the Texans after the hit on Lawrence. But while they weren’t exactly a great team with their starting quarterback, there is generally a noticeable drop-off between him and Mac Jones.
Jags Already Shorthanded In The Passing Game
The Jaguars are already shorthanded in other areas, as well. Two of their top pass catchers in Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis will miss the remainder of the season, which has forced Parker Washington and Devin Duvernay into the starting lineup. That particular duo has just 19 receptions between the two of them.
They could also shut down a couple of defenders if necessary. Safety Darnell Savage suffered an ankle injury in the game against the Titans and is listed as questionable, as is cornerback Tyson Campbell with a thigh ailment. No defense in the NFL has allowed more yards than Jacksonville’s, and they’ll need to keep up with that mark if they want to lock up that #1 pick.
According to projections from The Athletic, the Jaguars should be listed as the underdog in each of their remaining five games. It holds true at least for this Sunday’s game against the Titans, which will be played in Tennessee. As it stands on Wednesday, the home team is favored by 3.5 points.
