Alpine’s announcement that it will promote Jack Doohan to a Formula 1 race seat in 2025 leaves just three cockpits available on next year’s grid.
But in reality there are not that many options available for drivers still trying to secure their futures, because in all likelihood there is just one vacancy left completely open.
While Mercedes, RB and Sauber/Audi have yet to officially confirm their line-ups, the first two squads are pretty nailed down with what they are going to do.
At Mercedes, it is now almost certain that Andrea Kimi Antonelli will get the nod to line up alongside George Russell as Lewis Hamilton’s replacement.
An announcement could come as early as next weekend’s Italian Grand Prix – where the young Italian is also expected to take part in the first free practice session.
The situation at Red Bull and RB is slightly more fluid, but equally, it is more a case of three into two, rather than there being a door open for an outsider to swoop in.
With Red Bull motorsport advisor Helmut Marko suggesting ahead of the Dutch GP that Liam Lawson will get a seat at one of the squad’s two outfits next year, it means that either Sergio Perez (Red Bull) or Daniel Ricciardo (RB) will likely have to make way.
Both Perez and Ricciardo’s futures for the second half of this season had been in doubt after some mixed fortunes in the early stages of the campaign, but it was decided at the start of the summer break that both would be staying on for now.
Red Bull will want to see an improvement from both drivers if they are to stay for next year – and that is something that both are well aware of.
Speaking earlier in the Dutch GP weekend, Ricciardo said he had no doubts that Lawson deserved a full-time seat in F1 – something that it is understood Red Bull has to give him for 2025 as per his contract if he is not to become a free agent.
Ricciardo said: “I still know that performance is my best friend. If I do what I know I can do, and am capable of, then I think it puts me in a very good position to obviously stay somewhere in the family for next year.
“Speaking on Liam – I got to see him drive the car last year and I do think he did a great job. I do think he is worthy of a seat on the grid.
“So in a way, I’m happy for him and, if he is guaranteed a seat next year, then I think that's good, because he is a deserving driver.”
But while from the outside a Red Bull choice of picking its best two options from the three candidates seems obvious, there could be another scenario that plays out – that of Lawson being loaned out and all three of its candidates racing in F1 next year.
This was something Red Bull team principal Christian Horner hinted could be a possibility amid the Lawson talk. Speaking to Sky Sports about Marko’s comments, referencing Lawson definitely getting a seat in 2025, Horner said: “I asked him [Marko], quite clearly, he said he'll have a drive in Formula 1 next year. We could rent him out. Nothing is fixed.
“If we don't take up the option on Liam, then he's a free driver for 2025, so we've got specific time periods within driver's contracts where that becomes prevalent.”
The only possibility for a loan deal is the Sauber/Audi team, which is considering its options in the wake of Carlos Sainz’s decision to turn down an offer he had and join Williams instead.
Autosport understands that Sauber’s previous bosses showed an interest in getting Lawson on loan for 2025 earlier in the year, before the trail went cold amid the management turmoil that led to chiefs Andrea Seidl and Oliver Hoffmann departing.
While those talks had fizzled out, it is not hard to imagine that the signing of Red Bull sporting director Jonathan Wheatley as Sauber’s new team principal provides an obvious link to get discussions rolling again – especially as he will be well-versed in knowing Lawson’s strengths.
Much will depend though on what new COO Mattia Binotto also thinks in terms of gunning for a youngster like Lawson as Nico Hulkenberg’s team-mate next year or opting for a more experienced hand.
If Sauber goes for the latter then the most obvious choice is incumbent Valtteri Bottas, who is in ongoing talks with Binotto about a fresh deal.
Nothing is set in stone yet, but the Finn feels that there is some positivity in the way discussions are going – having not had a similar vibe from the previous management.
“It did feel for the last six months or so that I wasn't the top priority,” said Bottas in Zandvoort.
“Obviously there was one signing before me and obviously the team and the management [were] looking for all the options with sometimes quite little communication. But now it feels a bit different.
“There was a clear reset, and now there's a clear structure at the top in who's doing what. I think that's positive going forward.
“Mattia comes from a team that has been super successful. He knows what a good team really needs so I think this is good for the future of this team.”
He added: “Obviously they make the decision in the end, but they're evaluating all the options, no doubt, as they should. But I would imagine I should be in a strong position. But obviously, it's down to Mattia and Audi.”
All eyes are now on Hinwil, which looks to be central to the next F1 driver market move.
