Joey Barton admits his perceptions of what constitutes a successful season for Bristol Rovers have changed since the Gas were unable to bring back the "Lionel Messi of League Two" in Elliot Anderson, and Connor Taylor on loan.
Barton was bullish at the start of the summer that Rovers could build on their sensational run in the second half of the 2021/22 campaign that led to sealing automatic promotion on the final day, and mount a serious challenge on the higher echelons of League One.
That bravado was based on Barton's own classic self-confidence coupled with the intangible sporting currency of momentum, but also with optimism that Rovers' x-factor from last season could return to the Mem and be unleashed on League One.
Unfortunately for the Gas they've been victims of their own success in terms of Anderson and Taylor, who have since become parts of the first-team set-ups at Newcastle United and Stoke City, respectively, leaving Rovers without that two key pillars of the promotion campaign. Pillars they're now having to re-design and re-construct in the third tier.
With Taylor they've missed a consistent defensive presence who's also incredibly influential on both sides of the ball at set-pieces, while Anderson's absence in the final third has robbed them of a creator, a line-breaker and a goalscorer, who can produce magic out of nothing to break teams down.
Given their status as loan players it's seems perhaps a touch naïve for the Rovers manager to have pinned hopes for 2022/23 on individuals who aren't contracted at the club, but Barton's belief they would come back indicates it was a genuine possibility, and further emphasises the size of their impact and importance last season, which everyone is going to have to work hard to replace.
“Yeah,” Barton said, when asked if his expectations have changed. “Because I thought we’d get Connor Taylor back, I thought we’d get Elliot Anderson back - I thought there was a chance of those things.
“And then I thought we’d keep adding and adding and adding but, as it is, we’ve definitely strengthened from League Two to League One but we’ve definitely lost our x-factor because we had the Lionel Messi of League Two in Elliot, when you look at it now.
“He was an outlier in terms of lads (on loan) who have done well. Finn Azaz was (young) player of the year last year but he’s only signed for Plymouth, who are top end of League One but he hasn’t gone and got in Aston Villa’s first team.
"Elliot’s not only in and around Newcastle’s first team but he’s affecting Premier League games when he comes on and by the end of the season you’d be a fool to bet against him establishing himself in Newcastle’s first team.
“So we had a Premier League-level player in League Two. Nobody realised that, otherwise we wouldn’t have got him. We had a superstar.
“When you lose players like that and, let’s be candid here, if it wasn’t for him, we would not have got promoted; he was the difference between us having a great season and finishing the season strongly and getting promoted.
“Watch the Rochdale game, he pulls the team over the line; watch the Scunthorpe game, not only does he score the winner but every goal (he’s involved in), and that’s what a superstar player does - that’s what Michael Jordan does for your team.
“Now, the challenge for us is - Michael Jordan has left the building, who’s going to be Michael Jordan this season, who’s going to be Scottie Pippen? And we’re still trying to establish that.
“I think we’ve got some lads who are making a good claim to it. Aaron Collins certainly is, and again on Tuesday night I thought he looks like he’s going to be hell of a player. Bobby Thomas, he’s started a lot better than what Connor Taylor started.
“Can anyone replace Elliot? Unless you gave me 15 or 16 million quid, I think it’d be quite tricky because he’s a Premier League-level player and even an average Premier League player is changing hands for that money; you look at (Morgan) Gibbs-White for 40-odd million. So how much is Elliot worth? Who knows.”
The Gas have begun the season with two wins, two draws and four defeats in eight and lie 18th in League One, with reality checks at Portsmouth and Ipswich Town, not just on the pitch but in terms of infrastructure, crowd size and, most importantly, playing budget emphasising the leap between the division Rovers occupied and the one they currently reside in.
As a result, and with other extenuating circumstances influencing the change in approach, he is continuing to dial back some of the more fanciful boasts around promotion and is focusing on keeping the Gas in the division, and anything else will be a bonus. It's certainly a far cry from his bold claim in mid-August about reaching the Premier League before Bristol City, albeit with a longer term view in mind.
This clear switch in messaging has been apparent ever since the summer transfer window closed - again, linked to Taylor and Anderson staying with their parent clubs - and progress is now being measured in more modest, and some would say realistic, terms.
It should also be noted that while suspicions may arise that these words are being spoken to try and reduce some of the external pressure on the team, and therefore the management, Barton was in a jovial and relaxed mood on Thursday at The Quarters.
There was no sense of tension and his pre-season press conference lasted 50 minutes - approaching his personal best - guiding those gathered through subjects such as the drinking culture at Manchester City in the late 1990s and early 2000s before Kevin Keegan's arrival, Nicolas Anelka's professionalism and the fitness levels of the Burnley promotion side he was part of under Sean Dyche. He also spoke about being a "half-full person" amid this sticky patch of no wins from their last five League One games.
All this is ultimately more aligned with how bookmakers and pundits were forecasting Rovers' season back in June and July, admittedly prior to the bulk of transfer activity across the league, but with lower mid-table the consensus opinion as to where the Gas was likely to stand in the League One hierarchy.
FiveThirtyEight currently have Rovers finishing 20th in their data model, one place above the relegation zone, while Barton's side are sixth-favourites with bookmakers for relegation.
“Ipswich I think are the best team we’ve played so far, but if you look at the spend… they should be the best. And there are clubs that are further advanced in their development than us in terms of League One and they’ve got ambitions to be promoted this year," Barton added.
“We’re a newly-promoted side that has to establish itself in the division, if it does better than that then great but if we finish fifth from bottom - I know our fans don’t want to hear that, I know our players and staff don’t want to hear that - and that’s not my ambition but that will be a successful season for us.
“Because that means Rovers are a League One side, and then we can build off that, and that’s the only way we’re going to get to the higher levels. You don’t get there without the pain and the suffering and the hard work required to get there.
“At times in the League Two season it looked like we’d be a conference team again and somehow we go from the 90th-ranked team in the pyramid to the first. We’ve then jumped up a level and we’ve got to be crystal clear in our aim and that’s we have to a League One club when the fixtures finish in May.
"Now, we want to do that with as much aplomb as we can so we’re not there and we’re not looking over our shoulder. But if it means we have to win or get a point on the last day of the season, I’ll take that because, last time we were in League One we were relegated with games on the board.
"We were in a death spiral and so much has changed and we can’t lose sight that progress is establishing ourselves at the next level.”
In fairness to Barton, he hasn't been helped - although some would say, as manager, he's responsible to a degree - by the raft of injuries and suspensions Rovers have endured at the start of the season. He's yet to field what he believes is his "best XI" in his desired system against any of their eight opponents so far.
Over the course of the campaign, nine first-team players - James Connolly, Alfie Kilgour, James Gibbons, Lewis Gibson, Paul Coutts, Josh Grant, Jordan Rossiter, Bobby Thomas and Sam Finley - have been unavailable either in the short or the medium to long-term, leading to a constant chopping and changing of personnel and formations. A situation, of course, not dissimilar to this stage last season.
Such has been that sense of bad fortune, which has made team building and finding collective chemistry hard, Barton quipped he needs some divine intervention from above to see Rovers through the next couple of games against Lincoln City and Accrington Stanley, without any further surnames added to the injury or suspension list.
That would then allow those missing from action to come back and bolster the 14 senior players he currently has to select a starting XI and matchday squad from.
"You can see the light at the end of the tunnel and the problem is if anything gets exacerbated in the short-term,” Barton said. “As sod’s law usually has it that happens before you get back. I’ve got everything crossed and I’ll definitely go to Bristol Cathedral this week and make a few Hail Mary’s to try and get our group back.
“I do feel we have a young hungry and energetic competent team when everyone is available. The frustrating thing for us is everyone hasn’t been together at this moment in time. I don’t think we’ve had our best team on the pitch. I don’t think we’ve had our best group together for a consistent period.”
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