Make no mistake about it, this Week 3 at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday against the Buffalo Bills is the Miami Dolphins’ biggest September game in franchise history.
Sure, regardless of the outcome, 14 games remain for both teams with more than 75% of the season to be played. However, in the last several seasons, especially with the addition of Josh Allen and then Stefon Diggs, Buffalo has had Miami’s number. That number is seven, as in straight wins the Bills have had over the Dolphins. 2018 was the last time Miami beat their AFC East rival, and the previous two contests only saw 11 Miami points in total last season.
At the same time, this 2022 team looks and feels different for several reasons, starting up top with head coach Mike McDaniel and his philosophical approach as well as his creation of a culture of confidence and camaraderie not seen in Miami for, well, a long time.
McDaniel’s ability to allow his players to be themselves has given a breath of fresh air to the Dolphins, and their play is showing it. Even when down 21 points on the road in Baltimore last week, Miami rallied and stayed confident to pull off one of the more remarkable wins in NFL history.
The importance of this Buffalo game is that it can break their losing streak against a team who’s a Super Bowl favorite and, at the same time, extend a home winning streak to eight games. The Dolphins would also have a chance to sit at 3-0 and, pending the outcome of the Kansas City Chiefs game, could have sole possession of first place in the conference.
This game has massive short-term and long-term significance because if Miami can hold home court against the Bills, the NFL will be officially put on notice that the Dolphins are not a fluke, and this team is very much for real.
How can Miami get to 3-0 and beat Buffalo? It’s a tall order. Here’s what Miami needs to bring to the table on Sunday, in order to send the Bills crashing through them.
Contain Josh Allen's ground attack
Allen is playing at an MVP level for Buffalo. So far in this young season, he’s decimated the Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams and the Tennessee Titans while throwing for 614 yards and seven touchdowns. He leads the NFL in quarterback rating (86.8) and has a passer rating of 123.7. Targeting his go-to-weapon Stefon Diggs is all but a certainty, and the Dolphins will do everything in their power to limit that connection.
In an expected shoot-out, should Miami contend in this game, it’s the rushing aspect of Allen’s game that Miami must neutralize, especially on third downs. This is a job that can and should fall on the Dolphins middle linebackers, namely Jerome Baker, Elandon Roberts and potentially rookie Channing Tindall.
These linebackers must spy and not let Allen pick up yardage on his own. The Buffalo dual-threat has 430 rushing yards against Miami in eight games played. Breaking that down, he averages 8.96 yards per rush against the Dolphins and 53.8 yards per game. He also has four touchdowns against them, leading to a 7-1 record. Allen even put up a 135-rushing-yard game against Miami in 2018, which was his career-high.
The middle unit of the defense must contain Allen, as in those eight games against Miami, Allen has averaged nearly four first downs on the ground per game (29 in total).
The speed of rookie third-rounder Tindall, who’s yet to make an impact this season, could be used to track the scrambling and planned rushes of Allen. It’s this aspect of the game that will be critical for Miami’s offense to get the ball back and allow their defense to rest.
Let Mike Gesicki be Mike Gesicki
Week 1 saw a dominant Miami team beat New England where a passing attack was simply not needed. Tight end Mike Gesicki has been technically learning the position, as silly as that sounds. Most know Gesicki is a slot wide receiver literally tagged with a tight end label.
It’s an eight-figure label, as Gesicki was franchised by Miami in the offseason and was basically asked to learn to block in the new offensive scheme of new coach McDaniel.
However, Gesicki is a weapon beyond a label. Last week, when needing him the most, on a third-down, in the red zone, while trailing in the second half on the road, McDaniel deployed weapon No. 88, and Tagovailoa made a perfect back-of-the-end-zone throw that could have hit an NBA rim. Gesicki climbed the ladder and landed acrobatically to keep his feet in bounds for six points, earning him social media stardom for his “Griddy” celebration.
Gesicki made three additional catches in the Charm City Comeback, and he heads into this Bills game with heavy momentum and the fact that he has career-highs against Buffalo in both receptions and yards.
In a game where Miami will likely need to keep points piled up to keep pace, Gesicki is certainly one to watch as a featured player in the passing game, as much attention by Buffalo’s ailing secondary will be forced to help with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
The Bills being without safety Micah Hyde is just another reason why Gesicki could be in for a major role in the passing game on Sunday.
Cornerback crew consistency
Many in the media, both national and social, have pointed to the Bills’ injuries ahead of this game, which there are a number of, including defenders Hyde, Ed Oliver and Jordan Phillips. Yet, Miami will be without one of the highest-paid cornerbacks in Byron Jones, as well as right tackle Austin Jackson.
Jones’ absence puts a slight fork in their usual defensive backfield, as shown last week in Baltimore. Xavien Howard will check Diggs, of course, but the second cornerback should be undrafted rookie Kader Kohou heading into Sunday.
Nik Needham was on the outside last week, but he’s developed into a better slot-corner, especially in defensive coordinator Josh Boyer’s system. Put Needham back in the slot and let Kohou line up opposite Howard, at least to start.
A field flip or two
In a game where punters may see limited work other than the all-important place-kick hold, Miami’s Thomas Morstead may be called up to coffin-corner a kick in a key spot.
Morstead is fifth all-time in net average for his career (41.6 yards per attempt) with 273 nailed inside the 20-yard line. A potential timely kick, pinning the Bills back, whether up or down, could be a massive moment that Morstead kick-started.
Again, this is not a game to hope to see a lot of him standing upright, but when his number is called, Miami will hope the next number said is somewhere inside the 5-yard line.
Tua Tagovailoa continues momentum
The odds of the Dolphins running away with this from the get-go are very slim, as Buffalo is simply too good to put up an egg. It’s all but a certainty that Tagovailoa will have to keep up with Allen and company while having a game a bit closer to Week 2 than his serviceable performance against the Patriots in the opener.
The Bills’ offense is potent to the point where under 20 points won’t be anything to bank on, regardless of the ability of Miami’s defense at their best. As seen last week, a multi-threat quarterback in Lamar Jackson beat the Dolphins’ defense through the air and on the ground. With a similar style in Allen’s game, Miami’s quarterback may have to throw the ball well over 40 times.
Coming off of a game where Taogvailoa completed 36 of his 50 attempts for 469 yards and six touchdowns, he needs to protect the ball and make wise decisions in addition to continuing his progression when throwing the deep ball. His accuracy has been pin-point in key moments of the game. This could be seen in Gesicki’s touchdown and the dime to Jaylen Waddle to win last week.
Confidence is certainly on Tagovailoa’s side, as he was named Week 2’s NVP by Nickelodeon and the AFC’s Offensive Player of the Week.
