Thursday is game day for the Miami Dolphins and the Cincinnati Bengals in an early-season AFC battle. The 3-0 Dolphins traveled to Ohio and held a walk-through at the University of Cincinnati Wednesday, which was actually recorded play-by-play by an amateur with a Twitter account.
Spygate 2.0 aside, the Dolphins put their five-game primetime winning streak and unblemished 2022 record on the line tonight, as they look for their third straight win against the Bengals over the last four seasons.
Heading into the game, the Dolphins have a number of key players listed as questionable, including quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (back/ankle), who’s not dealing with a head injury. The other Dolphins with that questionable designation are left tackle Terron Armstead (toe) cornerback Xavien Howard (groin/glute), safety Brandon Jones (chest), defensive tackle Raekwon Davis (knee) and wide receivers Jaylen Waddle (groin) and Cedrick Wilson Jr. (ribs/toe).
Despite the pending announcement around 90 minutes prior to the 8:15 kickoff, here are the five ways Miami can beat Cincinnati on Thursday night.
How about them Apple(s)?
Tyreek Hill, also known as “The Cheetah,” is hunting for a matchup inside a matchup Thursday night in the Bengals home jungle. The wide receiver, with a game to back up his talk, called out cornerback Eli Apple earlier in the week.
“I can’t wait to go against Eli Apple,” Hill said. “I owe you, boy. I owe you. I’m here. The Cheetah is here. That’s it.”
Of course, any action like this will be followed by a reaction, and it came from a few members of the Bengals secondary, including Chidobe Auwzie.
“It’s entertainment,” Awuzie said. “That’s what people want to hear, people want to see. I thought it was funny. We were all laughing at it. It’s all good competition. You can’t go out there and fight somebody, so we’re going to play football at the end of the day.”
Hill is currently third in the NFL in receiving yards (317), right behind teammate Jaylen Waddle (342). Per Pro Football Reference, Apple is currently allowing completions on 64.7% of his targeted passes and a 91.8 passer rating.
If Hill can exploit this matchup, and have a game closer to his Week 2 performance against the Ravens, as opposed to quiet Week 3 versus the Bills, the Dolphins will be in great shape Thursday night.
Hill is currently averaging 15.1 yards per reception this season. His career average is 13.9, and his average with the Kansas City Chiefs was 13.8. Tagovailoa is actually increasing his career yards per catch so far in their relationship.
The running game must move the chains
So far the Dolphins’ rushing attack has been underwhelming statistically. Newcomers Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert make up Miami’s ground attack predominantly, with a cameo by fullback Alec Ingold.
Collectively, the Dolphins average 64 yards of rushing offense a game, 31st in the league currently. This doesn’t bode well on paper for Thursday night, as the Bengals have the eighth-ranked rushing defense in the NFL, giving up only 86.0 yards per game on the ground.
Edmonds, despite a pair of touchdowns against the Bills on Sunday, is only averaging 3.4 yards per rush, but he’s only carried the ball 23 times so far this season.
Mostert has had a similar per-carry output (3.3), so this pair needs to step it up, but that’s also on the offensive line. While the pass protection has been solid, the run-blocking needs to make life easier for the running backs.
With Miami’s defense spending over 40 minutes on the field just four days ago, it would be advantageous for their runners to pick up third-and-short situations, as well as provide some chunk plays that can make life easier. They can shorten the field for Tagovailoa and keep Joe Burrow and his offense off of the field.
Miami must, in turn, stop the run and Joe Mixon
Good running backs have given Miami trouble in recent years, and despite a slow start by the Bengals’ Joe Mixon, the Dolphins’ rush defense must be able to stop drives, especially against the run.
Mixon is only averaging 2.8 yards per carry, and Miami’s rush defense is in the lower half of the league (20th), giving up 116 ground yards per game so far.
However, those yards were mainly quarterback gains from Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. Burrow can pick up some yardage with his legs but not nearly at the clip that Jackson and Allen can, so neutralizing Mixon will be key on third-and-short situations.
There’s little question that the Dolphins’ defense is coming in less than full physical strength after 90 defensive plays Sunday. The defensive line of Zach Sieler, Christian Wilkins and John Jenkins must win the battle of the trenches and get to Mixon and his fellow Bengal backs. As mentioned Davis is questionable, and he’s a key man in the middle of the defensive line when healthy.
The Dolphins are used to playing a sort of “bend-don’t-break” defense so far this season, but Thursday night is extremely important for them to not give Joe Burrow extra chances with first downs picked up and drives extended thanks to his runners.
The Dolphins pass-rush must best the Bengals offensive line
Similar to the Dolphins, the Bengals’ offensive line is, let’s say, a work in progress. Both franchises elected to draft a wide receiver in the first round of the NFL draft in 2021, leaving linemen on the board. While there’s little complaint on each side about the players they went with, there’s still work needed on each team to improve the line play.
This is something defensive coordinator Josh Boyer must take advantage of with his pass rushers, including newly minted AFC Defensive Player of the Month Melvin Ingram. Ingram already has two sacks, one forced fumble and two fumble recoveries, with a touchdown to boot, so far in 2022.
Miami has now won back-to-back AFC Defensive Player of the Month awards, as linebacker Jerome Baker earned the honor in December 2021. The last time the Dolphins won back-to-back AFC Defensive Player of the Month awards was back in September and October of 2002 when Jason Taylor won both times.
Ingram is joined in the pass rush by Emmanuel Ogbah, who’s feasted in his career against the Bengals. In six career games, Ogbah has 4.5 sacks, two forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries. He has one sack so far this season, but he’s averaging two quarterback hits per game, so he’s getting to the passer.
Second-year edge rusher Jaelan Phillips is statistically a bit slow out of the gates, but not for a lack of effort. He’s a high-motor player, and he’s bound to get going soon.
Speaking of getting going, linebacker and special teams tackle leader, Andrew Van Ginkel was worked back into defensive action Sunday after a non-football injury right before the season. Down an appendix, Van Ginkel played in 23% of the defensive snaps against Buffalo, but more will be needed Thursday night, as he helps set the edge for Miami.
In another situation where stats don’t tell the true story here, Van Ginkel is another player who has a motor that doesn’t stop, and once he has his normal snap count of around 50-60%, his impact will be much more significant going forward.
Trey Flowers is another pass-rusher to watch for, as well as all those defensive back blitzes that Boyer will mix in. Boyer blitzing Burrow is something the Dolphins need to not only utilize but execute. The Dolphins are tied for 22nd in the NFL in sacks so far, after finishing fifth last season, so look for their numbers to pick up, potentially starting against the Bengals.
The Dolphins defensive backs against the Bengals receivers
There will be a plethora of wide receiver talent on the field Thursday night. The Bengals have a top-tier duo in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins while Miami matches with Hill and Waddle. The Dolphins enter this game, perhaps, the final one without star cornerback Byron Jones. This matchup was arguably the one to circle as the one most affected by Jones’ PUP start to the season.
Not to add to the potential issue, Howard is nursing an injury, so the importance of undrafted rookie Kader Kohou and former undrafted rookie Nik Needham is increased Thursday night for the Dolphins.
Tyler Boyd is a third Bengal target to account for, so limiting this group is key for Miami to potentially leave Cincinnati 4-0, a mark that the Dolphins haven’t seen since 1995.
