It’s a quick turnaround for the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 6 as they’ll host the Denver Broncos on Thursday Night Football.
Kansas City moved to 4-1 on the season with a win over the Minnesota Vikings last week. The Chiefs are sitting atop the AFC and will now play their first AFC West division game of the year against Denver. This will be the first of three straight divisional games on the Chiefs’ schedule, which includes the second matchup with the Broncos in Week 8.
Despite making big changes in the offseason, the Broncos are off to an abysmal 1-4 start. Not only has their play on the field been disappointing, but off-the-field comments and arrogance from coach Sean Payton are leaving an embarrassing mark on the franchise. A loss to K.C. this week and falling to 1-5 could already end Denver’s season.
Check out our offseason report on the Broncos, where you’ll find information about their offseason moves and key players. Let’s see what it will take for the Chiefs to beat the Broncos on Thursday night.
Chiefs' defense vs. Broncos' offense
Sean Payton and offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi run the Denver offense. The base of their offense is the West Coast system but there are multiple other layers to it, similar to Chiefs’ coach Andy Reid’s system. The Broncos want to set the tone with the short, horizontal passing game while also mixing in some spread offense.
Payton likes to create favorable one-on-one matchups out of the spread with plays such as bubble screens and drag routes. Once he has worked a defense to death underneath, Payton will dial up deep shots off play-action.
While he hasn’t done it as much in the last couple of years, quarterback Russell Wilson has been one of the best deep ball passers in the NFL over the past decade. If he does decide to take a shot, watch out for rookie wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr., who has been a big play machine and is averaging a whopping 24.6 yards per reception.
Statistically, Wilson is off to a nice start in 2023. He ranks second in the league in touchdown passes, fourth in quarterback rating, and 12th in yards. The Broncos offense as a whole ranks smack-dab in the middle of the pack at 16th overall. It could move up the charts a bit if Denver finds a way to run the ball more.
Only three teams have run the ball less than the Broncos have this season. However, Denver is averaging 4.9 yards per carry, which is the fourth highest in the league. Jaleel McLaughlin has unexpectedly emerged as an explosive back, leading the team in rushing and averaging 7.3 yards per carry. Wilson is also still making plays with his legs and won’t hesitate to tuck the ball and run if no one is open.
The Broncos offensive struggles in 2022 and their 1-4 record in 2023 has masked the fact that they are playing very well offensively this season. The Chiefs will have to be well-prepared for all aspects of the Denver offense. A bend but don’t break approach could serve well for K.C., preventing big plays and forcing the Broncos to execute in the red zone.
In order to do that the Chiefs will have to drop extra defenders in coverage, meaning they’ll have to get pressure on Wilson with just four or five pass rushers. That is something they’ve struggled to do in recent weeks, but the Broncos offensive line has surrendered the sixth most sacks in the NFL.
Chiefs' offense vs. Broncos' defense
The Broncos brought back their former head coach from 2017-2018 Vance Joseph to be their defensive coordinator. Joseph runs a base 3-4 defense with heavy press man-to-man coverage in the secondary. He is known for aggressive blitzing and trusting his cornerbacks to be on an island in man coverage.
Joseph mostly has his secondary utilize a Cover-1 scheme, which features one deep safety and multiple defenders underneath. With only one safety playing deep, the Denver defense is susceptible to the deep ball. Joesph will be counting on the athleticism of his defensive backs to hold their own against the Chiefs’ receivers.
If the Broncos’ pass rush can get consistent pressure, there won’t be time for plays down the field to develop. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes could have to get rid of the ball quickly due to pressure which could create a high risk of some passes getting intercepted by one of the many defenders lurking underneath.
The Chiefs can exploit the Broncos’ heavy pass rush starting by keeping an extra tight end or running back to help block. Giving Mahomes just that one extra second can make all the difference in the world.
As we all know Mahomes is a magician at keeping plays alive by scrambling around, which he may look to do quite a bit in this game. With Denver defenders in one-on-one man coverage, look for the K.C. receivers to run double-move routes and stretch the field.
The Chiefs should have plenty of opportunities for big plays. The Broncos rank 28th in pass defense and are dead last in rushing and total defense. The Chiefs’ rushing attack led by Isiah Pacheco has been executing at a high level and could control the pace of this game.
