In Week 14 the Kansas City Chiefs travel to Denver to take on the Broncos in their first matchup of the season.
The Chiefs came up short against the Cincinnati Bengals last week, dropping to 9-3 and the No. 2 spot in the AFC. Fortunately for K.C., it has the easiest remaining strength of schedule in the NFL. A game against the 3-9 Broncos could be an opportunity for the Chiefs to get their confidence back.
To say that the Broncos are having a disappointing season would be an understatement. They were projected by many to at the least be a playoff team and some thought they could take dethrone the Chiefs as AFC West champs.
Instead, Denver has the second-worst record in all the AFC and first-year head coach Nathaniel Hackett is already on the hot seat. The Broncos are currently on a four-game losing streak and have lost 13 in a row to the Chiefs dating back to 2015.
Let’s dive into this matchup and see what it will take for the Chiefs to get back on the winning track.
Chiefs' defense vs. Broncos' offense
Hackett brought Justin Outten to Denver with him from the Green Bay Packers, where he was the tight end’s coach for three seasons. Hackett also brought Klint Kubiak to Denver to be the quarterback’s coach. In Week 11 Hackett relinquished the offensive play-calling duties to Kubiak.
Hackett runs a West Coast Offense similar to what the Chiefs have seen recently with the San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams and Bengals. Like those teams, Hackett runs a lot of outside zone in his running game and builds off of it with play-action.
After working the underneath a bit with short, horizontal passes, Hackett and quarterback Russell Wilson want to take shots down the field. Wilson has been one of the best deep ball passers over the last several years but hasn’t had much success with it this year.
Passing yards-wise, Wilson is right in the middle of the league at 16th with 2,558. Unfortunately for Wilson, that’s as good as it gets. He is on pace to set a career low in touchdown passes as he only has eight on the season, the lowest among all QBs who have started at least 10 games.
He is also on pace for a career-low in yards per completion, averaging just 7.1. It’s hard to say exactly why Wilson has dropped off so badly and so suddenly, but the entire Denver offense is one of the worst units since 2000. It ranks last in the NFL in points per game and 27th in total offense.
The Broncos lost starting running back Javonte Williams early in the season and have had a revolving door at the position since. They released Melvin Gordon two weeks ago, who is now with the Chiefs, and have since run the ball mostly with Latavius Murray and a little of Mike Boone, Chase Edmonds and Marlon Mack sprinkled in.
Behind a below-average offensive line, Denver ranks 26th in the league in rushing and has the third-least number of rushing touchdowns with just six. The Chiefs’ defense has been solid against the run for most of the season but struggled last week against the Bengals as it gave up 152 rushing yards.
Chiefs’ defenders missed a whopping 14 tackles and the defensive line was dominated at the line of scrimmage. This is an important week for the Chiefs to re-emphasize physicality and tackling fundamentals. Hitting the Broncos’ offense in the mouth early could really set the tone for the game.
Back in the secondary, the Chiefs can’t be fooled into thinking the Broncos can’t hit big plays despite Wilson’s struggles. Receivers Jerry Jeudy and KJ Kamler are averaging 15.1 and 23.6 yards per reception respectively. Forcing Wilson to stay to the short middle and left side of the field would be a recipe for success as he has struggled mightily in those areas.
Chiefs' offense vs. Broncos' defense
First-year defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero is a disciple of former Broncos’ head coach Vic Fangio, having coached under him with the 49ers. That made for an easy transition for Bronco defenders as the Denver defense has been a bright spot during a disappointing season.
Like Fangio, Evero runs a base 3-4 scheme with heavy zone coverages in the secondary. Where they differ is the amount of blitzing. Fangio wasn’t a heavy blitzer, but Evero loves to blitz.
Like Chiefs’ defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, Evero uses a lot of simulated blitzing, which is when multiple defenders crowd the line of scrimmage with the offense not knowing who is actually blitzing and who is dropping in coverage.
Evero has significantly improved the Broncos’ defense from last season. It went from ranking 21st in weighted defensive DVOA in 2021, to ranking seventh thus far in 2022. It is the No. 3 ranked passing defense in the NFL and is allowing a league-low 5.9 yards per completion.
While the secondary is playing at a high level, Denver’s front seven has been mediocre when rushing the passer and defending the run. It is allowing just over 120 rushing yards per game and has 30 sacks on the season, six of those coming from Bradley Chubb who is now with the Miami Dolphins.
It seems fairly obvious that the Chiefs should commit to the run against a defense that is elite against the pass and has struggled against the run. The Chiefs have rushed for over 100 yards in each of their last four games.
The Broncos have four of the top 10 graded defensive backs in the league per Pro Football Focus. They have been just average against tight ends, however, perhaps providing an opportunity for Travis Kelce to have a bounce-back performance after a down week against Cincinnati.
