In Week 12 the Kansas City Chiefs host the defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams.
The Chiefs are red-hot, winners of their last four games and six of their last seven. They’re coming off a thrilling road victory over the Los Angeles Chargers and now have a commanding lead in the AFC West. K.C. is also the No. 1 seed in the AFC but has multiple teams on its heels.
The Rams are having a very disappointing season as they sit at 3-7 and are last in the NFC West. They seemed poised to be all in for a repeat run at a championship, but injuries and key offseason losses have been too much to overcome. L.A. will look to play spoiler this week as it begins to look ahead to next season.
Let’s jump into this matchup and see how the Chiefs can get their fifth consecutive win.
Chiefs' defense vs. Rams' offense
Sean McVay’s sharp offensive mind took the league by storm when he was hired as the Rams’ head coach back in 2017. He is a disciple of the San Francisco 49ers’ head coach Kyle Shanahan. McVay’s offense is mostly run out of 11 personnel, with one running back, one tight end, and three wide receivers.
A staple of his offense is the wide zone run. On a wide zone run, each offensive lineman runs in the same direction horizontally. This forces defenders to try to outrun the offensive linemen to their marks. If the defense flows too aggressively with the offensive line, it creates wide-open running lanes for the running back.
Of course, a great scheme is only as great as its personnel, which unfortunately for the Rams hasn’t been very good in 2022. They have the last-ranked offensive line in the NFL per Pro Football Focus and rank second-to-last in rush yards per game. Earlier this week L.A. made a puzzling decision to release Darrell Henderson Jr. who led the team in rushing yards and yards per carry.
The Rams’ passing game hasn’t been much better. After having one of the best seasons of his career in 2021, Matthew Stafford is averaging just 6.9 yards per completion and only has 10 touchdown passes this season. He is the third-most sacked quarterback in the NFL and the lack of an effective running game hasn’t done him any favors.
Stafford will miss this game with a neck injury, meaning the Chiefs will most likely face third-year quarterback Bryce Perkins. Perkins has spent most of his career on the Rams’ practice squad. He filled in for Stafford when Stafford went down late in the fourth quarter last week. Perkins is an athletic player who can make plays with his legs but struggles with throwing mechanics.
The Rams will also be down their All-Pro receiver Cooper Kupp. Their top receiver in his place is now Allen Robinson, who has been a disappointing acquisition for L.A. thus far. His big-play ability has diminished, and he is averaging only three receptions per game.
With how bad the Rams’ offensive line is, the Chiefs could get pressure on the QB by rushing only four defenders. That would allow them to drop seven in coverage and create opportunities to force some turnovers, which they haven’t done much of this season. The Chiefs have been stellar against the run and should have the athleticism to control the line of scrimmage against the poor L.A. rushing attack.
Chiefs' offense vs. Rams' defense
Veteran coach Raheem Morris is in his second year as the Rams’ defensive coordinator. He technically runs a 3-4 base defense, but as we know that defenses nowadays are multiple and rarely play in their base packages. One of Morris’ favorite fronts to use is the 5-1, which features five defenders on the line of scrimmage and one middle linebacker.
The Rams have a formidable front seven, led of course by future Hall-of-Famer Aaron Donald. The L.A. defense ranks fourth against the run, allowing just a hair over 95 yards per game and 3.9 yards per carry. It has uncharacteristically struggled to get sacks this season, however, with just 22 on the year. Even Donald has just five so far.
Back in the secondary, the Rams play more zone coverage than any other defense in the league. Their primary coverage is Cover 4 (or quarters coverage), which puts four defenders in deep zones. This is meant to prevent big plays, and the Rams are the best in the NFL at executing it.
The lack of a steady pass rush has had an effect on the L.A. secondary, ranking 17th in passing yards per game allowed. It is also allowing the third-highest completion percentage to QBs at 68.6 percent. All-Pro Jalen Ramsey hasn’t been quite himself this season as he has allowed the seventh-most receptions among all cornerbacks.
This seems like another week where the Chiefs go a little pass-heavy against a lackluster pass rush and passing defense. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes is playing at an MVP level and has the deepest unit of pass catchers that he’s had in his career. He’ll have to be patient and work underneath against the Rams’ Cover 4, but that shouldn’t be an issue as he’s done it all season long.
That’s not to say the Chiefs shouldn’t attempt to establish a running game, primarily since they have run the ball well over the last two weeks. Isiah Pacheco is really heating up and we could see the season debut of Ronald Jones, who would bring some power to the K.C. rushing attack. Keep an eye on the matchup between Donald and guard Trey Smith, who has been playing at a very high level as of late.
