CheckMate is a weekly newsletter from RMIT FactLab, recapping the latest in the world of fact checking and misinformation. It draws on the work of FactLab's researchers and journalists, including its CrossCheck unit, and of its sister organisation, RMIT ABC Fact Check.
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CheckMate March 24, 2023
Good morning,
In this week's edition of CheckMate, we examine New South Wales Labor leader Chris Minns's claim that Sydney is the "most-tolled city" in the world.
We also round up the rest of our fact checking in the lead-up to tomorrow's New South Wales election, and debunk claims about global warming after the release of the latest report from the UN's climate change experts.
How Sydney became the world's 'most-tolled' city … or did it?
During a New South Wales election campaign in which Labor has focused heavily on issues of privatisation and cost-of-living pressures, a claim that Sydney is the "most-tolled city on Earth" has taken on the status of fact.
But has the matter really been settled?
CheckMate took to the road this week to find out, but soon ended up gridlocked. Determining just where Sydney ranks among cities that charge road users was no easy task, with experts acknowledging the conundrum.
Nevertheless, Opposition Leader Chris Minns has repeated the claim in media releases, during leaders' debates and on social media, as Sydneysiders feel the pinch from the city's growing network of tolls — currently stretching more than 130 kilometres and comprising 13 roads and tunnels.
As evidence for the claim, a spokesman for Mr Minns's office directed CheckMate to two 2019 news stories featuring experts from Sydney University's Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies (ITLS).
These experts did not use the term "most-tolled" city, instead citing two separate measures on which they say Sydney topped the global list: These were the total "kilometres of tolls" in the city's urban area and the number of toll roads.
Claims of being the world's most-tolled city have gained traction since 2017, with a Google search revealing just one similar — unsourced — claim in 2016 about Sydney becoming "one of the most-tolled cities in the southern hemisphere".
Then came a 2017 New South Wales upper house inquiry into the state's approach to road tolls, whose final report quoted ITLS director David Hensher as saying Sydney had "more toll road kilometres" than any other city. (Professor Hensher said he was unable to provide CheckMate with the research on which his statement was based, as he had "not looked at [the question] closely in quite a while".)
However, on the question of which city was the "most-tolled", the government agency Roads and Maritime Services — since merged with Transport for NSW — told the inquiry that comparing cities was complicated by the "range of road financing and user-pay models in place around the world".
"Some apply area- or zone-based charges, such as London, Singapore, Stockholm and Milan. Some apply link or connection-based charges, such as Sydney Harbour Bridge, or the Mersey Tunnel Toll in Liverpool. And some apply charges across networks of toll roads similar to Sydney — this is common throughout Europe, the UK and Asia."
According to the agency's chief executive, Ken Kanofski, these differences meant "direct comparison between cities based solely on toll road kilometres is not necessarily an accurate reflection of the role road tolling plays in large cities across the world".
"Within that context, it would appear that a number of comparable international cities have more toll road kilometres and higher toll charges than Sydney," he said.
Mr Kanofski pointed to London's congestion charge, arguing that, at a cost of "around $20 per day" in 2017 prices, a daily commute in downtown London worked out to be "approximately 30 per cent more expensive than a similar 'to and from work' journey in Sydney on WestConnex [then $15.20]".
In addition, he said, "Tokyo has a total toll road network length of [more than] 300 kilometres — more than three times that of Sydney", adding that a two-way trip on the 14-kilometre Tokyo Bay Aqua Line would cost "almost five times the capped cost of the 33 kilometres of WestConnex".
Grattan Institute transport and cities program director Marion Terrill told CheckMate that the number of tolled kilometres was an important measure but, on its own, not enough to say which city was the most-tolled.
That's because "it makes a big difference if the tolls are expensive or cheap", she said, and it would matter less "if you tolled the whole network at a modest rate".
CheckMate approached several transportation experts — including the editor-in-chief of the international Journal of Transport Economics & Policy — but was unable to find research identifying the world's most-tolled city.
And while various reports and analyses consider the tolling regimes or attempt to summarise individual toll road costs in different countries, they do not explicitly compare urban areas.
According to one article published by the World Bank in 2013, China — which was expanding its toll networks — accounted for 70 per cent of the world's "total length of toll roads".
In 2017, a federal parliamentary committee also explored overseas tolling regimes, noting that, when making international comparisons, "it is important to remember the interaction of tolls with other road-user charges", such as fuel excise and vehicle registration, which may be higher in other countries.
However, the notion of Sydney's gold-medal status persists, with a follow-up New South Wales upper house inquiry stating in 2022: "If there was any doubt about Sydney being the most-tolled city back in 2017, that has now been dispelled."
This was, however, based purely on the 2017 New South Wales inquiry's report and the subsequent building and planning of additional roads in Sydney.
Fact checking the state election battle
RMIT ABC Fact Check tackled a number of claims made on both sides of the political divide in the lead-up to tomorrow's New South Wales election.
First up was Treasurer Matt Kean, who was found to have exaggerated a claim that the Coalition had "slashed" the state's social housing waiting list.
In fact, data published by the Productivity Commission showed the number of people waiting for social housing had fallen by just 0.2 per cent since Labor was last in power, with the number fluctuating dramatically across the Coalition's 12-year tenure.
Fact Check also tested a claim by Opposition Leader Chris Minns that New South Wales was Australia's "highest-taxing state", finding that there was more to the story.
On a population basis, New South Wales was indeed the highest-taxing state in 2021-22, collecting an average of $4,806 for each resident, while second-placed Victoria collected $4,643.
However, when tax was viewed as a proportion of the state's economy, Victoria topped the table with tax revenues equal to 5.9 per cent of GSP, with New South Wales ranking second (at 5.6 per cent).
Accounting for mining royalties collected by some states, New South Wales ranked third and second respectively among states on the basis of tax per capita and tax as a share of GSP.
Finally, Premier Dominic Perrottet was found to have been misleading when he claimed that Labor "closed 90 schools" when last in government.
As Fact Check found, 83 schools were closed under Labor, but another 88 were opened. Since the Coalition was elected, 38 schools have been closed and 37 opened — while 18 others have been placed "in recess".
Taking aim at claims that 'wokeness' led to bank's downfall
Following the recent failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), some pundits have suggested that the collapse of the Californian lender was caused by "woke" policies.
A term often used broadly by conservatives to denigrate progressive ideals, "woke" practices supposedly contributing to SVB's collapse included a commitment to workplace diversity and environmentally and socially responsible investments.
However, as the New York Times found last week, such claims were "without merit".
"The bank's collapse was due to financial missteps and a bank run," the paper reported.
According to the Times, SVB's policies — on diversity, equity and inclusion, as well as socially and environmentally conscious investing — were not out of the ordinary for the US banking sector.
For example, an inclusion report published by the bank showed that 38 per cent of SVB's senior leadership and 43 per cent of its board members were women, while 30 per cent of leadership and 8 per cent of the board were non-white.
"By these demographics, Silicon Valley Bank was one of the more racially diverse financial institutions, but not extraordinarily so," the Times observed. "Analyses have found that about 19 per cent of senior leadership in financial services were non-white and 30 per cent were women."
When it came to the make-up of boards, generally, the paper noted that "the boards of the eight banks in the United States considered systemically important were more racially diverse on average than Silicon Valley Bank".
As for socially and environmentally conscious investments, SVB's commitment to investing around 8 per cent of its total assets in such initiatives was on a par with other major US banks.
"[The] three largest US banks — JPMorgan Chase & Company, Bank of America and Citigroup — all dedicated 8 per cent to 14 per cent of their overall assets toward social and environmental investments in 2021."
Debunking climate myths after latest global warming warning
With the release of its latest report this week, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has called for "urgent climate action" in order to "secure a liveable future for all".
The report — which is part of the IPCC's sixth assessment round — summarises previous findings about the impacts of global warming and, specifically, how a 1.5-degree-Celsius rise in temperature above pre-industrial levels will affect land, the ocean and the cryosphere (frozen parts of the Earth such as icebergs and glaciers).
However, while the report brings into sharp focus the challenges posed by climate change, the IPCC and its findings have long been targeted by misinformation peddlers.
Claims — for instance, that IPCC reports are an "exaggeration" and that its models "overestimate warming" — disregard the panel's use of more than 3,000 modelled emissions pathways across a variety of scenarios in making its assessments.
The projections — each starting in 2015 and based on a range of greenhouse gas emissions (from very low to very high) — reflect how different scenarios would impact global surface temperatures.
Even under a very low emissions scenario, the IPCC previously found an increase of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels would still "more likely than not" be reached in the next two decades.
Meanwhile, that 1.5C threshold has not, contrary to some claims, already been reached: The IPCC report found the Earth is 1.1C warmer than pre-industrial levels. Nor is it too late, as others have suggested, to take action.
Indeed, under the IPCC's very low emissions scenario — which relies on global CO2 emissions declining to net zero by around 2050 — global surface temperature would fall back to below 1.5C by the end of the 21st century.
"The solution lies in climate-resilient development," the IPCC stated.
"This involves integrating measures to adapt to climate change with actions to reduce or avoid greenhouse gas emissions in ways that provide wider benefits."
Elsewhere, other claims take aim at the structure and role of the IPCC, such as a suggestion that the panel is "not a scientific but a political body that massages real science to suit its political goals".
The IPCC — which was formed by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) in 1988 — is made up of the representatives of 195 governments and does not conduct its own research.
However, its website says" "Thousands of people from all over the world contribute to the work of the IPCC", with scientific experts volunteering their time as IPCC authors to assess the "thousands of scientific papers published each year".
"Key to the IPCC's credibility is the fact that this is a science-driven process and the rigorous peer-review process ensures its reports cannot be politically motivated," the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) states on its website.
Edited by Ellen McCutchan and David Campbell, with thanks to Esther Chan
Editor's note (March 24, 2023): This article has been amended to better describe the reason Professor Hensher was unable to provide the basis for his comments to the 2017 upper house enquiry.
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