The Kansas City Chiefs are back in the Super Bowl — for the fourth time in the last five seasons — and Patrick Mahomes is getting hot at exactly the right time. Mahomes’ 2023 regular season, affected as it was by some iffy receivers and a questionable playbook at times, was underwhelming. But in his two playoff games, Mahomes has completed 47 of 62 passes (75.8% completion rate) for 456 yards (7.4 yards per attempt), three touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 112.0.
If the San Francisco 49ers are to avenge their 31-20 loss to the Chiefs in Super Bowl LIV four years ago, they’ll have to do as much as possible to contain Mahomes both as a passer and as a second-reaction runner. Defensive coordinator Steve Wilks is well aware.
“Well, it is definitely a challenge,” Wilks said Friday of the Mahomes Factor. “Not only him, you look at [Travis] Kelce, you talk about two first-ballot Hall of Famers there. We definitely have to prepare and be ready. It’s different things that we have to do. Number one, he’s doing a tremendous job, really extended plays. We talked all week. It’s two plays within one down. When the ball snaps and then once he starts to scramble. So he’s phenomenal. The best I’ve ever seen for just buying time, winning with his feet, and getting the ball where it needs to go down the field.
“They do ad-lib and they do a great job of it. But we still have to have a great plan. We’ve still got to execute and finish. When they start to ad-lib we’ve got to do a great job of really plastering the man within our zone and really straining to make sure we finish the rep.”
Putting a lid on Patrick Mahomes when he’s on is one of the toughest things to do in sports, but the 49ers under Wilks do have some concepts that they execute very well, which could get them started down the right path. Some are obvious, and some seem quite counterintuitive, but here’s what the 49ers have done this season, and what Mahomes would prefer they not do, that could make a serious difference in Super Bowl LVIII.
The 49ers are masters of subtle disguise.
I’ve seen some analysts insist that Wilks’ defense is “static” in a relative sense. I’m not sure exactly what that means, but I think it means that Wilks doesn’t have his players show disguise and late movement to the quarterback as much as other defenses do. And when I watch 49ers tape, I’m kind of wondering what those people are watching, because Wilks has some pretty interesting concepts in his bag.
Let’s go back to this Nick Bosa sack of Jared Goff with 11:47 left in the second quarter of the NFC championship game, because this takedown was all about how Wilks schemed it up, and how linebackers Dre Greenlaw and Fred Warner executed the plan. Pre-snap, Greenlaw was off-ball, and Warner was aligned in a one-tech shade spacing. Post-snap, Greenlaw blitzed to divert the attention of right tackle Penei Sewell, which gave Bosa a clean entry to the pocket. Goff would have had wide receiver Josh Reynolds open on the 10-yard curl, but Warner backed into coverage and got all the way over to the hook zone, obstructing Goff’s vision for that throw. You can see Goff tucking the ball back down and accepting his fate.
On this Kyler Murray scramble in Week 15 against the Arizona Cardinals, the 49ers started in a two-high look pre-snap, but switched to Cover-3 post-snap. The Cardinals had a seven-man protection against the 49ers’ four-man front, and this was another quarterback disruption based more on coverage than pressure. The Cardinals had receivers Greg Dortch and Michael Wilson running matching dig routes from the right side, which would have been an effective two-high beater. But against single-high zone with Warner AND Greenlaw dropping into the middle of the field, Kyler Murray had nowhere to go and rolled right before chucking the ball away.
Murray isn’t in Mahomes’ stratosphere as an improvisational quarterback, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility for such looks to at least delay Mahomes’ process. The 49ers like to use drop/float coverage looks post-snap, where the safeties will alter their looks, and do their best to still leave an undefined picture for the quarterback. This is how cornerback Deommodore Lenoir bagged an interception from quarterback Sam Howell of the Washington Commanders in Week 17.
Here, the 49ers showed a two-deep look pre-snap and morphed to Cover-3 post-snap. Safety Logan Ryan came down to help Warner bracket tight end Logan Thomas, and Howell thought he had a gift when that coverage took away his first look and Lenoir had dropped off into flat coverage, leaving slot receiver Byron Pringle open. But Lenoir was baiting Howell, and he jumped the curl route for the pick. Had Pringle run a more vertical route, deep safety Tashaun Gipson Jr. was on the money up top.
Blitzing Mahomes isn't the death sentence it used to be.
The 49ers don’t blitz a lot in their coverage switches — or at all, for that matter. This season, their blitz rate of 18.0% ranked third-lowest in the NFL, and their pressure rate of 21.0% was middle of the pack. The word is that you don’t want to blitz Mahomes because he’ll splatter your defense all over the field if you do, but you can get creative with extra pressure, and those coverage switches at the same time, to great effect.
And with the decline in Kansas City’s passing game, Mahomes hasn’t been quite as thermonuclear against the blitz as in years past. In the 2022 season, Mahomes completed 120 of 181 passes against five or more rushers for 1,312 yards, 539 air yards, 20 touchdowns, two interceptions, eight sacks, and a passer rating of 119.8.
In 2023, it’s been 92 completions in 146 attempts against five or more rushers for 940 yards, 289 air yards, six touchdowns, three interceptions, seven sacks, and a passer rating of 86.6.
With 3:01 left in the first half of the AFC championship game, the Baltimore Ravens flipped from two-high to Cover-3, and they presented a five-man pressure look pre-snap. It was a five-man pressure, but not in the way Mahomes expected. Edge defender Kyle Van Noy dropped into short coverage on Travis Kelce, and slot defender Kyle Hamilton blitzed from all the way over there. Hamilton nearly got Mahomes, who had to roll to his right and throw the ball away — not unlike what Kyler Murray had to do against the 49ers in Week 15. Add in linebacker Patrick Queen giving Mahomes an undefined coverage/pressure look pre-snap, and Mahomes’ picture was anything but clear.
This Mahomes incompletion to receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling with 11:03 left in the fourth quarter of the Chiefs’ Week 13 game against the Packers had a couple of interesting elements: two-high to Cover-3 post-snap, defensive lineman Devonte Wyatt knocking Travis Kelce off his route from the line of scrimmage, and safety Darnell Savage dropping down to take away Mahomes’ easy read to Kelce on the quick crosser, Kelce was waving his hand open as he got to the middle of the field, but Mahomes was reading from left to right, and he threw the deep ball to MVS before he saw his favorite guy come across the middle. The Packers also sent linebacker Quay Walker up the middle as the fifth rusher.
Stopping those ad-lib throws to Travis Kelce.
This is where Warner and Greenlaw will be crucial to the 49ers’ efforts, especially in zone coverage. The 49ers have lined up in zone on 67.6% of their defensive snaps this season; Cover-3 is the clubhouse leader with 35.0% of their defensive snaps in the regular season and postseason. We’ve already seen how well Wilks’ defense switches to Cover-3 post-snap from other ideas to muddy the picture for opposing quarterbacks. And Mahomes has not been great against Cover-3 this season, completing 111 of 166 passes for 1,243 yards, 618 air yards, five touchdowns, five interceptions, and a passer rating of 86.5.
The interceptions included Mahomes’ pick-six to cornerback Jonathan Jones in Week 16.
But Kelce can rip Cover-3 apart, especially if there’s a bust in coverage. His 21-yard catch against the Ravens in the AFC championship game was assisted by cornerback Arthur Maulet blitzing off the edge and safety Kyle Hamilton breaking off Kelce to attend to Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the flat. The 49ers will always want to have at least one guy on Kelce, of course.
Warner is the key man here, because he’s so great at clouding the middle of the field to the numbers, and he can do that everywhere from off-ball to a blitz look because he’s so intelligent and athletic. Even when he’s not in a position to be anywhere near where the ball is going, as was the case on this incredible pass deflection against Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 11, Warner can do things that will have quarterbacks — even Mahomes — walking to the sideline shaking their heads and wondering what just happened.
Of course, the problem with Mahomes is that even when you have him dead to rights, he’ll do something equally amazing to wriggle out of it. In Week 7 of the 2022 season, Warner probably thought he would be able to string out a scrambling Mahomes to the sideline. But Mahomes did another one of his Mahomes things, completing an 18-yard pass to WR Mecole Hardman.
A perfect defensive plan is all they'll need!
So. All the 49ers have to do to pull off their first Super Bowl win since the end of the 1994 season is to throw coverage looks at Mahomes that will actually confuse him, plaster his receivers all over the field, keep an extra eye on whatever the heck Kelce is doing with his improvised routes, and clamp down on the second-reaction stuff Mahomes can kill you with.
Not an easy deal at all, but that’s what the Super Bowl should be about — their best against your best.
