THE polls have made for pretty torrid viewing for the SNP and pro-independence supporters of late.
The most recent – run by Survation for True North – said that Scottish Labour are on course to win up to 28 seats at the General Election.
Labour were the choice of 36% of respondents, while 32% backed the SNP, while support for the Tories was around 17% and the Lib Dems were on 9%.
It was a slim improvement for the SNP on a poll a week before by YouGov but the polls certainly indicate that the momentum is with Anas Sarwar north of the Border.
But how trustworthy are these polls? And should we be taking these results as gospel?
The Sunday National spoke with some experts to find out their thoughts in the run-up to July 4.
Pollster Mark McGeoghegan said that the polling over the last month or so should “certainly” be taken seriously.
He added, however, that it doesn’t mean any one poll should be taken at face value.
“There's all sorts of sources of error. Not just statistical error. Usually we say that's plus or minus 3%,” he said.
“You may have a sample that is more politically engaged than the general public are. And people who are politically engaged are structurally different from the general public.
“Maybe people who are more politically engaged are more likely to support Labour or more likely to be swing voters. And if that's true, then you might get some error in your final voting intention totals.”
The academic said, however, that pollsters spend “an enormous amount of time and resources trying to correct for that” and ensure the questionnaire doesn’t lead to any sort of bias.
McGeoghegan added: "There are all sorts of sources of error and because of that, we don't want to look at any one poll and take it as gospel. We want to look at all of the polls that we've had in a given period of time.”
An average of the most recent polls does make for better viewing for the SNP, with just a slight lead for Labour.
Analysis by Ballot Box Scotland last week, for example, finds that Labour are at 35.8%, with SNP a little below at 32.3%.
The Tories, meanwhile, are at 15%. The LibDems are at 7.8%, the Greens are at 2.8% and Reform UK at 2.5%.
The full breakdown reads:
- Labour: 35.8% (+17.2)
- SNP: 32.3% (-12.7)
- Conservatives: 15% (-10.1)
- LibDems: 7.8% (-1.5)
- Greens: 2.8% (+1.8)
- Rest of the UK parties: 2.5% (+2.0)
“Polls should be taken, but not inhaled,” says pollster John Curtice.
“They should be taken because, otherwise, if you don't have any opinion polls, politicians will just claim anything. They will say everything is in their favour, which is obviously a load of nonsense.”
The University of Strathclyde professor added that doesn’t mean they are always accurate.
“They did pretty well at the last election, less so the two before that,” he said.
“There's quite a lot of variation between the polls in terms of the levels of support so they give you a broad idea of where we are at. But we certainly can't be sure of pinpoint accuracy.
“One thing they certainly can't take into account at this stage - because people only decide to do it late - is whether or not they're going to decide to vote tactically.
“But national opinion polls, in any case, won't give you much guidance on that unless it's a big sample size.”
Curtice said that one aspect of political polling that should be taken with a larger pinch of salt is converting polling results to seat predictions.
“This is a highly problematic election in terms of seat extrapolations simply because - certainly across the UK as a whole, and it's relevant to Scotland too – the evidence we have from both local elections and the big MRP polls is that the Tory vote is going down more heavily in places where they were previously strongest,” he said.
“And whether or not that same fate is going to befall the party north of the Border is potentially important.”
The academic added, however, that what the polls certainly indicate is that the downfall of Humza Yousaf “hasn't done the SNP any favours”.
“And while Swinney is less unpopular than Yousaf, that is not in itself a sufficient answer,” he said.
“It's a reasonable supposition that the SNP have got work to do. Otherwise, they are at risk of no longer being the third party in Westminster. That is the real cliff the SNP are facing and which they will have to try to do their best to try and avoid.”
