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ABC News
ABC News
National
By Iris Zhao

How serious is China's military operation and why is it a show for Chinese audiences?

People gathered to watch China's missiles fly overhead.

When China started firing ballistic missiles into the waters surrounding Taiwan on Thursday, people from both sides of the Taiwan Strait headed to the coast to watch.  

The launches kicked off several days of live-fire exercises announced previously by Beijing in response to US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to the self-ruled island. 

In China, spectators uploaded to social media videos of the missiles leaving smoke trails across the sky.

Meanwhile in Taiwan people piled onto sight-seeing boats and headed to a famous coral island just 10km from where some of the missiles were expected to plunge into the sea. 

While the scale of the military exercises may have been unprecedented, no-one appeared to believe they posed any immediate danger.

However, experts say the episode is still likely to have important longer-term implications.

China revealed the six areas around Taiwan where the missiles would target ahead of time.  (Reuters: Thomas Peter)

Why weren't people in Taiwan concerned?

UNSW associate professor of international and political studies Zhang Jian said the Taiwanese people had become inured to China's aggression over the years and expected the situation to blow over. 

"For the people of Taiwan, they have gone from being nervous to being used to it," he said.

"It is also understood [by Taiwanese people] that the situation across the Strait is related to the occurrence of special events.

"Once an event is over, the situation would become stable again."

Some believe China painted itself into a corner by making such a fuss about Ms Pelosi's visit before it was even confirmed. 

The government's spokespeople and almost all state media in China condemned it furiously and repeated how China would defend its "One China" policy with action.

Political science and international relations expert Chen Jie said China was, to some extent, caught by its own "reckless language" and had to stage a reaction to fulfil its words.

Dr Chen, an associate professor at the University of Western Australia, said infuriated Chinese nationalists were mobilised by the Chinese officials' proclamations.

"I think there is a bit of haste there," he said.

"China was not taking the initiative but was rather hijacked by the public fury they fuelled themselves."

China's military released images of conventional missile tests aimed at waters off the eastern coast of Taiwan. (Reuters: Eastern Theatre Command/Handout)

What's 'unprecedented' about this latest episode?

The last time Beijing fired missiles into the waters surrounding Taiwan was 26 years ago. 

Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui had just visited the US and Beijing responded with a series of missile tests and military manoeuvres over a period of eight months.

Dr Zhang said back then, Beijing targeted areas to the west, north and south of Taiwan.

This time the missiles fell on all sides of the island, "forming the first blockade of Taiwan", Dr Zhang said.

A few even reportedly landed in Japan's exclusive economic zone. 

"If China resorts to forceful means to resolve the Taiwan issue in the future, [this military exercise] serves as an opportunity to practice," he said.

What's likely to happen now?

Four US warships, including an aircraft carrier, were positioned in waters east of Taiwan on what the US Navy called routine deployments on Tuesday.

The US responded to China's missile tests in the 1990s by sending a warship, and two aircraft carrier battle groups through the Taiwan Strait, as a show of its military might.

However, the US is unlikely to respond in the same manner this time around, according to Natasha Kassam, director of the Lowy Institute's Public Opinion and Foreign Policy Program.

"China's capability now compared to in the mid-1990s is remarkable, and the relative capability of the United States military to respond has dwindled," she said.

"That crisis [in 1995 and 1996] came about because of decisions made by both the United States and China.

"In this particular case, I think it's unlikely that the US military will respond, and so it is unlikely to turn into a more protracted crisis."

A shift in what is acceptable

However, despite not being considered an immediate danger, experts warned that China might use the incident to ratchet up the pressure on Taiwan.

"The live-fire exercises are just one part of China's response to Pelosi's visit to Taiwan," Professor Zhang said. 

"Another response is likely to be increasing the regularity of military initiatives [in the area] over time."

He said China might also start to push military activities closer to Taiwan's airspace and waters.

"Previously, flying over the air defence identification zone may have only happened at certain times, but it could become the norm in the future," he said.

Dr Kassam said China may follow a similar playbook to what it had been doing in the South China Sea.

"[China] gradually changed the kind of definition and perception of what was acceptable in the South China Sea," she said.

"China can use these exercises and further escalation to attempt to redefine the Taiwan Strait as well, for example, try to close the Taiwan Strait from being seen as international waters."

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