Red Bull and RB's decision to drop Daniel Ricciardo mid-season had nothing to do with him performing so badly that an immediate change was needed.
RB team boss Laurent Mekies made it crystal clear last weekend that if the Australian had the car underneath him he needed, like in the Miami sprint this year, his pure speed was still there to make the most of it.
Instead, the manoeuvring that has triggered Ricciardo's F1 exit and brought Liam Lawson back to a race cockpit is very much about Red Bull needing to get on the front foot with its 2026 driver plans.
If we rewind a bit, we must remember that Ricciardo's comeback for RB last year was ultimately an audition for Red Bull.
With Sergio Perez having some wobbles throughout the second half of 2023, Red Bull knew that if Ricciardo showed the same speed he did during that post-British GP test in the RB19 last year then he would be a comfort blanket to slot in if its Mexican incumbent did not lift his game.
But things did not get off to the best of starts when Ricciardo broke his wrist at Zandvoort, opening up the door for Lawson to impress during a five-race stint for the squad.
Then, despite Perez struggling massively at the start of 2024, Ricciardo's inconsistent form meant he came short of convincing Red Bull that he would be an automatic step up if given a return to Milton Keynes.
There was that very brief spell around the Hungarian and Belgian GPs where Ricciardo appeared to be in the frame as Red Bull lost hope in Perez, but once the squad committed to sticking with what it knew, then that ultimately set in stone the events that have played out this week.
Looming right at the back of the minds of Red Bull's senior management is what to do about its drivers for 2026, even though in theory both Max Verstappen and Perez have contracts.
Neither can be 100% certain they will be there. Verstappen could walk to another team or out of F1 completely, while Perez needs to perform better to secure his place. These possibilities mean Red Bull cannot risk having any other top-line options on the table if it needs to pursue a Plan B.
The team has to be sure it has its bases covered on two fronts.
First, there is keeping a close watch over top talent from other teams – which is why Red Bull team boss Christian Horner has been stirring the pot by saying that George Russell could be a target for him in the future.
But what Red Bull especially needs to do is know who is best available from its current young driver pool, and the only way to be sure on that front is to get the comparisons rolling straight away.
With Ricciardo not a long-term option, Red Bull could not really wait until the start of 2025 to slot Lawson in again and get a definitive verdict on how he stacks up against Yuki Tsunoda.
Perez's ongoing inconsistent form means the jury is out on his seat for next year, let alone 2026, and if things don't improve by the end of the campaign, Red Bull needs to be sure about who would be the best alternative if needed.
It is pretty clear Red Bull does not think Yuki Tsunoda is the right fit to join Verstappen, but throwing Lawson in without a decent run of races to show his potential would be taking a big risk.
Plus, if Perez goes and Lawson is not up to it, then Red Bull could find itself on the hunt for two drivers.
So while it would have been nice to allow Ricciardo the chance for a farewell tour to see out the season, time is not on Red Bull's side.
That is why it needs to be sure about Lawson as quickly as possible to know where he fits in: is he fast-tracked to the top team, or does he need more time to develop himself?
Then there is also the debate about what to do with its other junior drivers. Isack Hadjar has done a good job in F2 and is banging on the door of F1, while Ayumu Iwasa has been putting in the podiums in Super Formula.
As Red Bull motorsport advisor Helmut Marko explained in a video with Motorsport.com's sister site Motorsport-Total.com, there is a bigger picture at play here.
"Ricciardo was brought back with the chance for him to come to Red Bull Racing if he had shown the appropriate performance at Racing Bulls," he said.
"But you have to see it in a larger context. We have a good number of young drivers. There's Hadjar, there's Lawson. There's also Iwasa, without ranking them anywhere. And we have to look to the future.
"And we also want to have comparisons: Where does Lawson stand in comparison to Yuki? Then, for the future, what does the driver pairing look like for our two teams?"
This then is the game at play. Red Bull's driver shuffle for the United States Grand Prix is not about lifting results now. It is all about what happens 18 months from now.
