Pennsylvania Governor Tom Wolf has vetoed anti-abortion bills passed by the Republican-controlled legislature three times, and the Democrat promised to defend abortion rights as long as he’s in office. That window is fast closing.
Wolf steps down in January and the fight to replace him is one of the most competitive among the 36 governor races across the U.S. this November. Pennsylvania is one of 12 states where control is split between the major parties, and the one where a Republican governor could have the most direct impact on abortion laws if the U.S. Supreme Court reverses its 1973 opinion guaranteeing a right to terminate a pregnancy.
Pennsylvania is also among the key battleground states in the U.S. midterms, where contentious races for House and Senate seats could alter the balance of power — and perhaps the outcome of abortion legislation — in Washington.
Pennsylvania’s May 17 primary election is just days away, and the leaked draft opinion to overturn Roe v. Wade has set activists and politicians into overdrive. It has also upended pollsters’ predictions on how much abortion will play into voters’ minds this year: In a flash poll conducted by Morning Consult on Tuesday, 42% of U.S. voters who lean Democratic said it’s more important to vote for a candidate who agrees with their stance on abortion, even if they disagree on other issues. That compares to 31% of Republicans, reversing more than a decade of polling that showed Republicans have been more motivated by the abortion issue.
Planned Parenthood Pennsylvania Advocates executive director Signe Espinoza said the health-care provider’s Philadelphia-based political and advocacy arm got more than 300 emails from supporters within hours of the leaked report, many with offers to volunteer or donate.
“We are working really hard at PPPA to make sure that we can capture the outrage,” she said. “People are ready and alarmed and aware that the stakes are really high.”
Rallies sprung up in places including Philadelphia, the state’s business hub; Lancaster, the heart of Amish country; Allentown, with its majority Hispanic population; and Pittsburgh, a higher-education magnet. Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro, the only Democrat among a dozen vying to replace Wolf as governor, will headline an abortion rally on Friday. On the GOP side, state Senator Doug Mastriano called on state lawmakers to hold a vote on legislation he introduced that bans abortions after a fetal heartbeat can be detected.
A constitutional amendment to ban the procedure even in cases of rape, incest or life-threatening conditions was released from a state Senate committee in April. Even if it fails to make the November ballot, it could get new life from a Republican governor.
What happens in Pennsylvania has ripple effects across the U.S. It’s the closest state to get an abortion for a large swath of Midwest states like Ohio, Michigan, West Virginia and Kentucky, where restrictions would go into effect should Roe v. Wade be struck down. If a 15-week ban were instituted in these states, the number of women whose nearest provider would be in Pennsylvania would rise to 2.4 million from 330,000, according to the Guttmacher Institute, which studies abortion trends.
Pennsylvania law allows abortion as late as the 24th week but a number of restrictions have been put on the procedure in recent years, reflecting the nuanced views of Pennsylvania voters who might not support an all-out ban but often support stricter guardrails.
For example, people seeking abortions must get counseling and wait 24 hours before getting the procedure. Minors must receive parental consent. Health plans for public employees or those offered in the state’s health exchange cover abortion only in cases of incest, rape or endangerment of life. The state has fewer than 45 facilities that provide abortion, leaving 85% of Pennsylvania counties — and about half the population — without a nearby clinic, according to the Guttmacher Institute.
Although abortion is legal, Pennsylvania is “hostile” to abortion access, said Roxanne Sutocky, director of community engagement at the Women’s Centers, which runs clinics in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Connecticut and Georgia. A lot of the “restrictions that we see proliferate were birthed in the state of Pennsylvania,” Sutocky said.
While eight in 10 Pennsylvania voters say abortion should be legal, only 31% believe it should be legal under all circumstances, with 53% saying abortion should be legal under certain circumstances, according to an April Franklin & Marshall College poll taken before the Supreme Court leak.
“Our work has just begun,” Carol Tobias, president of the National Right to Life Committee, said in a telephone interview. If Roe is struck down, there’s a larger fight among the states, the anti-abortion group president said. “It’s not going to be any easier than it has been in the past 50 years,” she said.
For more than 50 years, Pennsylvania voters have alternated control of the governor’s seat — and by that measure, at least, a Republican is next. More concrete is Pennsylvanians’ displeasure with the Democrats’ chief, President Joe Biden, with only one in three saying he is doing a good job, according to a Franklin & Marshall College poll. That doesn’t bode well for the four Democrats vying to take a U.S. Senate seat from retiring pro-life Republican Pat Toomey, or for Senator Bob Casey, who’s not up for election until 2024 but is the only anti-abortion Democrat in the Senate other than West Virginia U.S. Senator Joe Manchin.
Emerson College Polling for Pennsylvania shows 51% of Republicans undecided for the Senate race, and 49% for the governor’s seat. The survey, of 1,000 very likely voters from April 3-4, has a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
In the wake of the Roe v. Wade leak, abortion will be among Pennsylvania issues surveyed next week, poll director Spencer Kimball said in an interview. “It will be interesting, as we ask about top issues, if abortion rights or abortion access percolate up,” Kimball said.
The state is drawing a large number of candidates for the seat held by Toomey, declared by Planned Parenthood “one of the most extreme anti-abortion, anti-women’s health senators in Congress.” Democrats candidates include Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman, and among the seven Republicans are celebrity physician Mehmet Oz and former Bridgewater Associates chief executive David McCormick.
Republicans have one advantage in the governor’s race because Wolf’s approval ratings have dropped during Covid, but Democrats, in Shapiro, have a well-financed veteran of statewide office who could score major points on abortion alone, according to Chris Borick, a Muhlenberg College political science professor and director of the school’s Institute of Public Opinion.
“Imagine Josh Shapiro saying in an ad, ‘If Republicans control the state legislature — and given the decision out of the Supreme Court — I’m the last barrier to protect reproductive rights. I’m it,”’ Borick said.
