Vertex Pharmaceuticals could soon capture $10 billion in sales of non-opioid painkillers, an analyst said Friday as Vertex stock jumped on a fresh approval.
Late Thursday, the Food and Drug Administration signed off on Journavx, formerly suzetrigine, for patients with moderate-to-severe acute pain. Acute pain is generally caused by surgery, accidents or injuries. Vertex is also angling for eventual approval in chronic pain treatment, a far bigger market historically dominated by opioids.
The approval is "the start of something big," Leerink Partners analyst David Risinger said in a report. Journavx is a pill given twice a day. The pain treatment will cost $15.50 per 50-milligram pill before insurance and reimbursement kicks in. Risinger had projected $12 a pill.
Notably, the label doesn't warn against a risk of addiction. Opioids are highly addictive and, in recent years, their use has fallen by the wayside. This language will be "critical to utilization," Risinger said.
On today's stock market, Vertex stock popped 5.3% to close at 461.68. Shares moved above their 200-day line for the first time since mid-December, MarketSurge shows.
Launching A New Painkiller
Wall Street largely expected the approval, RBC Capital Markets analyst Brian Abrahams said in a report. He projected a 90% chance of success for Journavx. But he is less bullish on the drug's chance of making a huge splash.
Abrahams noted recent details show there were higher rates of some side effects in patients with liver disease. Further, 2.5% of patients who received Journavx had increases in eGFR, a measure of kidney function, vs. 0.9% of placebo recipients.
He also said it takes roughly four hours for Journavx to have an impact on pain levels, compared to one to one-and-a-half hours for ibuprofen or naproxen. For that reason, he sees limited initial adoption, resulting in $54 million in 2025 sales. The Street more broadly projects $90 million.
"We continue to expect a slower launch given potential access and reimbursement hurdles of a branded pain drug, especially one that is relatively modestly effective and takes some time to kick in, and view this more as a first step toward what could be larger chronic pain indications and/or more effective next-gen Nav agents," he said. Nav refers to the sodium ion channel that Journavx blocks.
He has a sector perform rating on Vertex stock.
Is This Vertex Pharmaceuticals' Next Big Chapter?
But other analysts were upbeat.
William Blair analyst Myles Minter called for a "potentially game-changing launch ahead." He sees the approval as a large win for Vertex Pharmaceuticals as it moves beyond its dominance in treating cystic fibrosis.
"Despite our view that suzetrigine will face initial inertia from clinicians for use in pain management, we model Journavx as attaining blockbuster status, reaching $1 billion in sales by 2028 and peaking at about $4.9 billion in sales in 2031," he said in a client note.
Minter rates Vertex stock an outperform.
Risinger, the Leerink analyst who projects more than $10 billion in peak sales of Journavx and any next-generation versions, says this is the start of Vertex Pharmaceuticals' next chapter. He expects Vertex to "serially innovate and launch additional non-opioid pain medications over the medium-long term."
