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National
Dan Bloom & Aaron Morris

How much will train fares rise? What we know as major rail announcement comes on Wednesday

Train users and passengers are already wading through a wave of strikes - with the next one taking place later this week on Thursday.

And a major announcement on Wednesday will give the first indication of how high rail fares could soar over the coming year.

While the bad news expected is that fares will increase alongside inflation, there's a slight positive that ticket prices won't increase by 13% as initially anticipated.

Read more: National rail strike: How July 27 RMT strike affects trains in Newcastle and North East

The Mirror reports that this is because they will no longer be pegged to RPI inflation - which is tipped to top 12% when it's unveiled on Wednesday at 7am. The rise will also be delayed two months from January 2023 to March.

However, this isn't the end of woes for hard-pressed commuters. Here's what we know so far.

What is being announced tomorrow?

As per usual, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) will release its monthly inflation figures spanning July. General inflation - otherwise known as CPI - is currently topping nine per cent, and could teeter towards 10%, adding another blow to UK households. The Bank of England also say that CPI could exceed 13% this coming winter.

But the Retail Prices Index of inflation (RPI) is even higher. In June it was revealed at 11.8%, so it could top 12% in July.

How does this connect to train fares?

RPI in July is traditionally what decides the maximum rise in 'regulated' rail fares for the following year. In previous years, fares had risen by RPI plus one per cent - which could have led to a 13% rise in rail fares in January.

Last year however, the Government made sure that the rise was lower than soaring levels of RPI for the first time in a number of years. Likewise, this time round it’s already promised to formally uncouple next year’s rise from Wednesday’s RPI inflation.

Even so, Wednesday's inflation announcement will be important as a general guide to what people setting fares are up against, and how high fares could acceptably go. The rail fares rise will also be a crucial reference point for rail unions striking for higher pay.

How much will rail fares go up and when?

Rail fares will go up in March 2023 instead of January 2023 to cushion some of the blow. As for how much they’ll go up, we don’t yet know.

The exact rise in regulated fares will be negotiated between the Department for Transport and the Treasury - however, we can use this year’s rise as a rough guide. Regulated fares were meant to go up by 3.8% as a maximum. In reality they went up by 3.7%.

But because not all fares are regulated, rail fares on average increased by 4.8% in March 2022. With many public sector workers offered four per cent pay rises, that means fares could still rise faster than wages.

What has the Government said?

A Department for Transport spokesperson said: "The Government is taking decisive action to reduce the impact inflation will have on rail fares during the cost of living crisis and will not be increasing fares as much as the July RPI figure.

“We are also again delaying the increase to March 2023, temporarily freezing fares for passengers to travel at a lower price for the entirety of January and February as we continue to take steps to help struggling households.”

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