Train passengers are already wading through a wave of strikes - with the next one starting this Thursday.
Now a major announcement tomorrow will give the first clue to how high rail fares could soar in the coming year.
The bad news is that fares will go up.
The good news is that they won’t go up by 13%.
This is because they will no longer be pegged to tomorrow RPI inflation - which is tipped to top 12% when it’s unveiled at 7am.
The rise will also be delayed from January until March 2023. This is similar to what happened this year.
But it’s not the end of woes for hard-pressed commuters. Here’s what we know so far.
What is being announced tomorrow?
The Office for National Statistics will release its monthly inflation figures for July.
General inflation known as CPI is running above 9% and could nudge 10%, showing the blow to families as energy bills, food and fuel all go through the roof. The Bank of England says CPI could top 13% this winter.
But the Retail Prices Index (RPI) of inflation is even higher. In June it was 11.8% - so it could top 12% in July.
How does this connect to train fares?
RPI inflation in July is what traditionally decides the maximum rise in “regulated” rail fares the following year.
In previous years, fares had risen by RPI plus 1%. That could have led to a 13% rise in rail fares in January.
Last year, the government made sure the rise was lower than soaring RPI for the first time in years.
Likewise, this time it’s already promised to formally uncouple next year’s rise from tomorrow’s RPI inflation.
Even so, tomorrow’s inflation announcement will be important as a general guide to what people setting fares are up against, and how high fares could acceptably go.
The rail fares rise will also be a crucial reference point for rail unions striking for higher pay.
How much will rail fares go up and when?
Rail fares will go up in March 2023 instead of January 2023 to cushion some of the blow.
As for how much they’ll go up, we don’t know yet.
The exact rise in regulated fares will be negotiated between the Department for Transport and the Treasury.
However, we can use this year’s rise as a rough guide.
Regulated fares were meant to go up by 3.8% as a maximum. In reality they went up by 3.7%.
But because not all fares are regulated, rail fares on average increased by 4.8% in March 2022.
With many public sector workers offered 4% pay rises, that means fares could still rise faster than wages.
What has the government said?
A Department for Transport spokesperson said: "The Government is taking decisive action to reduce the impact inflation will have on rail fares during the cost of living crisis and will not be increasing fares as much as the July RPI figure.
“We are also again delaying the increase to March 2023, temporarily freezing fares for passengers to travel at a lower price for the entirety of January and February as we continue to take steps to help struggling households.”
