For those who interpret the letters “N-F-L” as “not for long,” the conversation about money can almost never come up too early. And it won’t be long until the Carolina Panthers will have to talk guap with Brian Burns.
The speculation surrounding an extension for the talented pass rusher unofficially began as soon as the team picked up his fifth-year option on April 29. Then, the topic was a tad more apparent when head coach Matt Rhule was questioned about Burns’ absence from the Charlotte facility two weeks ago—which was much ado about nothing anyway.
Regardless, the time is fast approaching for the top talent of the 2019 NFL draft class to cash in—Burns, obviously, included. So, as the landscape of the league looks today, how much would the Panthers have to potentially fork over for the newly-turned 24-year-old?
Pro Football Focus salary cap analyst Brad Spielberger put together his early projections for those numbers, and let’s just say Burns would probably like what he sees here—a five-year, $120 million payday.
“Burns was productive at Florida State and was a favorite of many analysts prior to the 2019 draft, but he fell to the No. 16 overall pick because of questions surrounding his size and ability to defend against the run. Through three seasons these concerns appear to have some merit, as Burns has struggled against the run and as a tackler,” Spielberger writes. “However, that is not what gets an edge rusher paid in this league — getting after the quarterback does, and that’s where Burns excels.
“Burns’ 107 quarterback pressures over the last two seasons rank 11th among edge defenders, his 83.8 pass-rush grade ranks 16th, and his 18 sacks are tied for 12th with Tampa Bay Buccaneers edge defender Shaquil Barrett.”
Spielberger’s projection, which also predicts $95 million in guaranteed cash, rewards Burns with a take of $24 million per year. That would, as of this writing, make him the fourth-highest paid defensive end on an annual basis.
But, again, that’s as of now. What we must take into account is the ever-increasing market, the expected salary-cap spike in 2023 and the fact the San Francisco’s Joey Bosa—a fellow edge rusher from the 2019 class—will very likely top what Burns is going to get.
Quite simply, however, Burns is a rising star at a premium position. He’s posted two straight campaigns of 9.0 sacks and is fresh off the first Pro Bowl appearance of his three-year career.
And no matter how you slice it, Carolina is going to have to provide the cheese if they want to keep their guy.
