It’s not a question about whether Aaron Judge will get paid in a season when he’s in reach of the American League Triple Crown and has joined the 60-home run club.
It’s a question of how much and by whom.
Will the New York Yankees back up the Brinks truck? Will a franchise with deep pockets outbid the Pinstripes?
We here at For The Win have been debating how much Judge will earn after this season, so we decided to put together our best offers and the reasoning behind them as Judge approaches … who knows how many home runs?
Let’s dive in:
The Offer: 7 years, $300 million
Aaron Judge is absolutely going to get paid. And considering he turned down a seven-year, $213.5 million offer at the start of the season, he can expect to benefit from betting on himself in what ended up being a historic 2022 campaign. But it’s easy to forget that Judge was 25 years old in his first full big-league season.
He’s going to be 31 next year, so there isn’t going to be a huge contingent of teams out there wanting to pay a 38-year-old Aaron Judge $43 million in the final year of a contract. But all it takes is one, and Steve Cohen might end up being that one. Hard to see Judge accepting anything below a $300 million threshold.
-Andrew Joseph
The Offer: 7 Years, $290 Million (plus opt-outs!)
Not only does this deal make Judge the highest-paid position player (AAV of $41.4 million, about $4 million more per year than Mike Trout), it also more than doubles Judge’s current $19 million AAV deal. Let’s toss in player opt-outs after Years 3 and 5 just in case Judge wants a little more freedom. Here’s the thing: He’s about to turn 31 next year and isn’t going to hit 60+ home runs every year and he’s more than likely going to regress over the term of whatever deal he signs. But I think adding in a few incentives for hitting 40, 50 and 60 home runs that get his AAV up to $45 million per year is worth it since the PR and interest generated by such a run is more than worth whatever bonus he earns.
If I’m the Yankees I do this in a heartbeat. You don’t let a guy surpass Babe Ruth and let him walk away. That’s how curses are born. You do, however, lock in Judge for the remainder of his prime and hopefully make him a Yankee for life. Make him your brand ambassador for the next 50 years for what’s already the most iconic baseball team in the world. Overpay now for the chance to brag about him forever.
-Blake Schuster
The Offer: 7 years, $310 million (plus an opt out!)
That gets him in over Scherzer, gives him some leverage down the road, and is over the $300 million mark.
Why did I outbid my colleagues here? Because I imagine the number will START at $300 million. Someone will indeed overpay for him to be a very expensive player at an age when he won’t be worth that much, and the hope is whatever he does at the beginning of the contract will be worth it in the end.
-Charles Curtis