A swing and and a miss.
That phrase is becoming as synonymous with the New York Knicks as it is with the Yankees or Mets. The Knicks were again in pursuit of a high-profile player available to be had, and they again failed to land that player.
This time it was Donovan Mitchell, who the Utah Jazz traded to the Cleveland Cavaliers. Predictably, the NBA world used the moment as an opportunity to clown the Knicks.
Belly-laugh. Deep inhale, let it out.
OK, now that that’s out the way, here’s some sobering truth about the situation: the Knicks weren’t guaranteed to make the playoffs even if they did get Mitchell. Actually, that would’ve been funnier.
New York finished 11th in the Eastern Conference last season, which is right around where they sit on the list of betting odds for the 2022-23 season. Their +4000 odds to win the East are 10th at Tipico Sportsbook. The line for their win total is 39.5. Odds favor them to miss the playoffs again. Acquiring Mitchell, undoubtedly would have improved those odds, but likely not by much.
The teams with the next closest odds to New York are the Hawks, Bulls and Raptors, all tied at +2000, and all playoff teams from last season. The Hawks added an All-Star themselves in Dejounte Murray this offseason. The Bulls still have the DeMar DeRozan-Zach LaVine tandem, and they were one of the best teams in the NBA before injuries hit. And the Raptors are a young budding team that not only had the best record of these four teams, but also pushed the Sixers to six games last postseason.
Are we sure Mitchell would have automatically made the Knicks better than any of those three, let alone the Celtics, Bucks, Nets, Heat and Sixers? I wouldn’t be so sure, especially considering what New York would have given up in the trade. Utah turned down a deal earlier in the summer that included RJ Barrett, Obi Toppin and Mitchell Robinson, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported.
At the start of trade talks in July, New York offered Utah a Donovan Mitchell package including RJ Barrett, Obi Toppin, Mitchell Robinson and three unprotected first-round picks, sources tell ESPN. Jazz turned down that offer and Robinson signed a $60M extension to stay w/ NY. https://t.co/3eDg2Mf7f1
— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) September 2, 2022
New York’s last offer included Barrett and Immanuel Quickley, according to The Athletic’s Shams Charania. The Jazz wanted more, including potentially another young player.
"They had everything necessary to get a deal done … in their last offer they put on the table RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, two unprotected first-round picks but Danny Ainge and the Utah Jazz wanted more."@ShamsCharania reports on Utah taking the Cavs offer over the Knicks. pic.twitter.com/2rKkNpIThl
— The Rally (@TheRally) September 1, 2022
In addition to parting with a minimum of three unprotected first-round picks, New York would have gutted its depth in order to acquire Mitchell. It would have been a devastating move for their long-term outlook, and any short-term improvements wouldn’t be enough to justify the cost.
If you’re a fringe title contender like the Cleveland Cavaliers believed themselves to be, you absolutely go get the player you think takes you over the top. When you’re a bottom-five team in the conference, holding onto your draft picks and best young players is better than taking a swing for a shot at the play-in tournament.
New York will probably miss the playoffs again next year, but after failing to make this deal, at least they’ll be able to continue building towards the postseason until the time is right to pull the trigger on a big trade.
