SINCE the turn of the year, the eyes of the world have fallen firmly on Greenland. More people than ever will be interested in the outcome of Tuesday’s election in the self-governing territory of Denmark.
The prospect of independence and threats from Donald Trump to obtain control of the world’s largest island are big talking points, with the US president saying last week to Congress that he would obtain Greenland “one way or the other”.
We’ve spoken to some experts to find out just how crucial this election could be.
How important might the election be?
On Tuesday, Greenlanders will take to the ballot box to elect 31 MPs who will be chosen from six political parties, two of whom are in the governing coalition of the Inuit Ataqatigiit and the Simiut parties.
Since few opinion polls take place on the North Atlantic island, it is less clear than in other European elections as to what the outcome might be.
One poll conducted by Verian in January asked 497 Greenlanders who they would vote for and it suggested that the Inuit Ataqatigiit party could gain about 31% and beat the Siumut party by about 9%.
While it has been tricky to tell how the election will go, Ulrik Pram Gad (below), who worked for the Government of Greenland for several years and now works at the Danish Institute for International Studies said the campaign could significantly impact Greenland’s relations with Denmark going forward.
“The campaign, with the coverage it has had in Denmark, might actually have elevated the Danish understanding of the complexities of Greenlandic colonial history and society,” he told The National.
Pram Gad was keen to stress that while a lot of the Danish and international coverage has focused on independence and some of Trump’s comments about trying to acquire Greenland, there are other issues at play.
He said: “It is about independence and Trump and geopolitics, the colonial history with Denmark, but mainly in people’s Facebook feeds because they get a lot of Danish media coverage in there.
“When I hear reports from what happens at the town halls, it’s still about everyday issues, of course wrapped up in the idea of ‘this is what should make us ready for independence one day’. But it’s less dramatic in the Greenlandic debates that they get to have on their own than if you follow the international and Danish coverage.”
Will independence happen for Greenland?
Greenlanders voted overwhelmingly in favour of self-government in a 2009 referendum that also established a pathway to independence whenever the people of the island support such a move. There are no major political parties in Greenland that are against independence.
The independence movement has gained significant traction in recent years in part due to multiple revelations of misconduct by Danish authorities last century, including a forced contraception campaign in the 1960s and 1970s where Inuit women and girls were fitted with intrauterine devices to prevent pregnancy.
Some have speculated that Trump’s threats towards Greenland – which have included him not ruling out doing so by force – have increased support for independence but Rachael Lorna Johnstone, a part-time professor of law at the University of Greenland, said: “The biggest factor in the last few years that is pushing Greenland towards statehood is increasing recognition of a series of wrongs against Greenlanders during the so-called ‘Colonial Time’.
“While most of these were long known in Greenland, now the Danish government is starting to acknowledge them. Another important factor is the ever-increasing level of education, and with it self-confidence, of young Greenlanders and their interaction with a world beyond Denmark.
“And a third factor is the success of self-government. Greenlanders have proven that they can run their own country in most affairs; so many think it is time to take over the rest.
“Trump’s position is bringing international attention to this; but in my view, it is really an internal push.”
Ulrik Pram Gad said it remains to be seen whether Greenland goes down the path of full independence or whether an improved relationship with Denmark is sought, as he stressed Greenlanders are keen to avoid a huge economic hit.
Currently, the nation relies heavily on a block grant from Denmark, worth about 600 million euros every year.
“It’s only going to be a ‘yes’ either if Greenland has developed its economy itself or if there is a sponsorship ready on the other side of independence,” he said.
“The perspective of Denmark sponsoring Greenland after independence, that might have come a little closer because maybe now the Danish Government can say ‘we’re doing this for world peace’ or international security. There are narratives the Danish Government could build.
“If you go back 25 years, there might have been an idea in some parts of the Greenlandic electorate that we can be alone. I think by now, the debates in Greenland over the last decades has made it clear that they feel […] we want sovereignty over our own state, but we’ll never be able to stand alone in the world. We need to have a lot of connections, and we’d rather have that with Denmark than anyone else.”
Johnstone added: “Whoever wins the election – and whatever happens in the US – this matter [independence] is going to remain on the agenda.
Will Greenland become part of the US?
Last week, Trump said the US will take control of Greenland “one way or the other” in a speech to Congress, but he did also say he supported Greenland’s right to determine its own future.
In response, Greenland’s Prime Minister Mute Bourup Egede has declared “Greenland is ours” and cannot be taken or bought.
Johnstone said it appeared Trump may have got the message that Greenlanders will make their own decision about their future.
She went on: “However, it is also possible that Trump is starting to believe the propaganda from some of his own supporters – for example, social media videos of teenagers in Nuuk who were paid 100 USD each to wear MAGA hats and make positive remarks about the US.
“He may think that support in Greenland for some kind of union with the US is much stronger than the reality.”
There is little appetite for Greenland to leave Denmark and join the US, with a recent poll showing 85% do not want this to happen.
Pram Gad said he could not see a future where Trump obtained control of the nation.
He said: “To me, he doesn’t seem like the type of guy who will really give an offer to Greenland that is more attractive than the Danish one.
“Greenlanders would not want to take the deal Trump would want to offer. So within any perception of international law as we know it, I don’t see a scenario where Donald Trump gets to have Greenland.”
