Weight-loss drug kingpins Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk could join the trillion-dollar company club even before Tesla, according to a report issued Wednesday.
The two have become household names after winning Food and Drug Administration approvals for obesity treatments Wegovy and Zepbound. In less than 11 months, Lilly could become the ninth company with a market cap of $1 trillion or more. Novo could follow suit in roughly two years, BestBrokers said in its report.
Both could easily beat Tesla to the mark, which isn't projected to hit a $1 trillion market cap for two years, nine months and 20 days. Tesla stock has trended sideways to down since late 2021, while Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk shares have spent the past decade-plus climbing.
Eli Lilly Soon To Overtake Novo Nordisk
It's no secret weight-loss drugs have taken Wall Street by storm. This year, analysts expect Wegovy and Zepbound to bring in a combined $12.98 billion in sales, according to FactSet.
Next year, analysts polled by FactSet project a total $17.76 billion in sales. That's the year Zepbound is projected to take the lead. By 2029, the latest year for which there are estimates, analysts call for a total $35.41 billion in sales between the two weight-loss drugs.
BestBrokers said Eli Lilly has a three-year average growth rate of nearly 41.3% and a current cap of almost $736.6 billion.
Ahead of Eli Lilly, Berkshire Hathaway is projected to join the trillion-dollar club within roughly six months. Behind Lilly, Broadcom and Taiwan Semiconductor are expected to pass $1 trillion market caps within a year. Novo's 31.6% growth rate and $572 billion market cap means it will have to wait two years and 12 days before hitting that mark.
Both weight-loss drug companies will beat Tesla, Shell, Walmart and JPMorgan Chase to the $1 trillion line.
Nvidia Faces Off With Microsoft, Apple
Meanwhile, the battle is on for the first company to reach a $4 trillion market cap. Chipmaker Nvidia reached the $1 trillion bar in May 2023. With a current market cap of $2.78 trillion and a three-year growth rate of 104.3%, BestBrokers expects Nvidia to be worth more than $4 trillion in about six months.
It's in a close battle with Microsoft and Apple to reach the $4 trillion mark. Their market caps are a respective $3.16 trillion and $3.34 trillion. But the two have lower growth rates than Nvidia.
"For a brief period, Nvidia even held the title of the world's most valuable public company," BestBrokers said. "However, its stock has since fallen, allowing Apple and Microsoft to reclaims their positions as the top two most valuable firms. So, the question now is: Which tech giant will be the first to reach the next major milestone of a $4 trillion market cap?"
Amazon.com and Alphabet are expected to follow suit sometime in the next four to seven years.
Follow Allison Gatlin on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, at @IBD_AGatlin.
