Data experts and bookmakers have differing perspectives of Bristol Rovers' possible fortunes in League One this season, producing very different predictions of how they will fare in the third tier.
Just a quick glance at the league table is enough to conclude the step up from League Two and League One is significant; there are many big clubs with big budgets that Joey Barton and his players will be competing against in the season ahead.
They do have confidence and momentum on their side after romping to promotion in the second half of last season, but the data analysts at FiveThirtyEight do not take that into account. Their model is based on squad values – which will be flexible for the rest of the transfer window, of course – and by that metric Rovers are tipped to be in the relegation battle, with a 32 per cent chance of finishing in the bottom four.
Derby County are tipped to finish top with a 27 per cent chance of winning the league and a 54 per cent chance of getting promoted. Sheffield Wednesday and Ipswich Town are also contenders.
At the other, Morecambe are favourites for relegation with a 44 per cent chance of dropping to League Two. Exeter City, Accrington Stanley, Cambridge United and Port Vale are also in the mix for the drop.
Here is how League One is predicted to finish, according to FiveThirtyEight...
- Derby County - 89 points
- Sheffield Wednesday - 85 points
- Ipswich Town - 80 points
- Barnsley - 76 points
- MK Dons - 75 points
- Portsmouth - 72 points
- Wycombe Wanderers - 72 points
- Bolton Wanderers - 71 points
- Oxford United - 70 points
- Peterborough United - 66 points
- Plymouth Argyle - 62 points
- Shrewsbury Town - 62 points
- Lincoln City - 61 points
- Charlton Athletic - 61 points
- Forest Green Rovers - 55 points
- Fleetwood Town - 54 points
- Burton Albion - 54 points
- Cheltenham Town - 54 points
- Port Vale - 51 points
- Bristol Rovers - 51 points
- Cambridge United - 50 points
- Accrington Stanley - 50 points
- Exeter City - 50 points
- Morecambe - 46 points
However, the bookmakers have a different view of the upcoming League One season. They, too, rely on data, but their conclusions have Rovers closer to midtable.
Here are the latest promotion odds according to SkyBet...
- Sheffield Wednesday - 11/10
- Ipswich Town - 13/8
- Peterborough United - 9/4
- Derby County - 5/2
- MK Dons - 3/1
- Bolton Wanderers - 10/3
- Barnsley - 4/1
- Portsmouth - 4/1
- Oxford United - 9/2
- Wycombe Wanderers - 5/1
- Plymouth Argyle - 7/1
- Charlton Athletic - 8/1
- Bristol Rovers - 16/1
- Lincoln City - 16/1
- Shrewsbury Town - 16/1
- Accrington Stanley - 20/1
- Burton Albion - 25/1
- Cambridge United - 25/1
- Port Vale - 25/1
- Cheltenham Town - 33/1
- Exeter City - 33/1
- Fleetwood Town - 33/1
- Forest Green Rovers - 33/1
- Morecambe - 40/1
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