Under Gov. Ron DeSantis, Florida has become a major Republican stronghold, with Democrats constantly losing across-the-board. But ahead of November, the latter party is counting on a wild card to increase their influence in the Sunshine State— Black voters.
During the last election cycle, during the 2022 midterms, Black voter turnout was down significantly. In fact, that year showed one of the lowest Black voter turnout across the country, with 10.9% of voters being Black compared to 73% being white, according to Brookings.
But this year, Florida Democrats expect a different story, primarily thanks to Vice President Kamala Harris being at the helm of the ticket, which could help down-ballot contests get more support.
"Within the Black community, there's a heightened sense of awareness that we need to do something, particularly vote," said the Rev. Charles Morris, pastor of New Bethel AME Church in Quincy in Gadsden County, the state's only county with a majority Black population.
Part of this newfound hope can also be due to a surge in voter registration. In the state, new voter registrations in the week after President Joe Biden withdrew in July in favor of Harris increased by 12% over the same week in 2020. But registrations among young Black women increased by a remarkable 141%, according to The Ledger.
"There is excitement for Harris, particularly among younger, Black voters," said Matt Isbell, a Democratic data consultant. "But the key is making people realize that you have to be registered like a month before the election. You can't get excited the last two weeks before the election and say 'Hey, I'm going to vote!'"
It is highly unlikely that Harris will win Florida in November, as the state has become a safe space for Republicans. But her presence on the ballot could help other races and initiatives in the state by driving Democratic voters to cast their ballots.
Two constitutional amendments will be contested in Florida in November. Amendment 3 would legalize recreational marijuana, while Amendment 4 would expand abortion access in a state with highly restrictive reproductive rights legislation.
Likewise, Democratic former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is vying to unseat incumbent GOP Sen. Rick Scott in one of the most watched Senate races in the country. While polls show Scott with an advantage over his challenger, Mucarsel-Powell has been making significant inroads throughout the campaign, dramatically closing the gap with her opponent ahead of November.
The level of Black voter turnout could tip these contests toward Democrats, activists say.
Black voters overwhelmingly support Harris. In fact, more than eight-in-ten (84%) of Black voters say they would vote for Harris if the election were held today, while 13% said the same for former President Donald Trump, according to a recent Pew Research Center survey.
Similarly, a recent poll by Howard University, the historically Black university that is Harris' alma mater, showed her doing best among Black voters. While still overwhelmingly supported by younger Black voters, Harris loses some, with 16% favoring Trump, including 21% among men under age 50.
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