Jorge Martin can seal the 2024 MotoGP title in the Malaysian Grand Prix after his nearest rival Francesco Bagnaia crashed out of Saturday's sprint race at the Sepang International Circuit.
In what many see as the decisive moment in their championship scrap, Bagnaia lost the front end of his factory Ducati at the tricky uphill Turn 9 on lap 3 of 10, while running in second place behind Martin.
This has given the Pramac rider a massive 29-point lead in the championship standings, with just two grands prix and a sprint race left to run.
The 26-year-old, who is chasing a maiden crown, will have his first match point in Sunday's full-distance race as he aims to avenge for his title defeat to Bagnaia in 2023.
An early coronation could be crucial for the Spaniard, as the venue and date for the season finale is yet to be announced.
Valencia was due to host the final round on 15-17 November, but heavy flooding in the region forced MotoGP to cancel the race just two weeks ahead of its scheduled date. A replacement round could take place in Jerez, Barcelona, Portimao or Qatar.
How Martin can wrap up the title in Malaysian GP
| Martin | Bagnaia |
|---|---|
| If Martin wins | Bagnaia must finish third or lower |
| If Martin finishes second | Bagnaia must finish fifth or lower |
| If Martin finishes third | Bagnaia must finish ninth or lower |
| If Martin finishes fourth | Bagnaia must finish 12th or lower |
| If Martin finishes fifth | Bagnaia must finish 14th or lower |
| If Martin finishes sixth | Bagnaia must finish 15th or lower |
| If Martin finishes seventh | Bagnaia must not score points |
| If Martin finishes eight or lower | The title will not be decided in Malaysia |
To put it into simple words, Martin needs to extend his lead by at least nine points in order to be crowned the 2024 champion in Malaysia.
That means he must finish at least seventh in order to put the title out of Bagnaia's reach.
Given the speed both Martin and Bagnaia have shown so far this weekend, it is likely that the two will finish on the podium.
If Martin wins the race, his title rival must finish third or lower for the championship to be decided early. If Bagnaia is able to follow Martin home in second place, that will mean the title fight will continue into the finale - albeit with a mammoth 34-point gap between the two.
A second-place finish for Martin would be enough if Bagnaia fails to finish higher than fifth. The championship fight will carry over to the final round if Bagnaia wins the race or finishes second.
The final spot on the podium would also suffice if the two-time champion has a difficult race and cannot finish inside the top eight.
The opposite scenario
No matter where Martin finishes on Sunday, he will head to the final round as the championship leader.
Even if Bagnaia wins the grand prix and Martin fails to score, the Spaniard will still hold a four-point lead in the standings.
While Martin has already put one hand on the title, Bagnaia's only option is to score the maximum number of points on Sunday and then hope for a miracle in the season finale.
A total of 37 points would then be on offer in the last round.
Here's how the championship picture would look like if Bagnaia wins the Malaysian GP and Martin finishes second or lower:
| Bagnaia | Martin | Points gap |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | Finishes second | 24 |
| Wins | Finishes third | 20 |
| Wins | Finishes fourth | 17 |
| Wins | Finishes fifth | 15 |
| Wins | Finishes sixth | 14 |
| Wins | Finishes seventh | 13 |
| Wins | Finishes eighth | 12 |
| Wins | Finishes ninth | 11 |
| Wins | Finishes 10th | 10 |
| Wins | Finishes 11th | 9 |
| Wins | Finishes 12th | 8 |
| Wins | Finishes 13th | 7 |
| Wins | Finishes 14th | 6 |
| Wins | Finishes 15th | 5 |
| Wins | Fails to score a point / retires | 4 |
