Pramac rider Jorge Martin goes into the Barcelona Grand Prix with a reduced - but still substantial - 19-point lead over factory Ducati rival Francesco Bagnaia.
What was a 24-point lead was trimmed down to just 19 by Bagnaia following his impressive performance in the sprint race on Saturday, in which he converted pole position into a seventh half-distance race victory of 2024.
The Italian was aided by his team-mate Enea Bastianini, who snatched second place from Martin with a brilliant move at Turn 5 on the final lap. It made a difference of two points to Martin’s tally, which could play a big role in Sunday’s finale.
As with every grand prix, 25 points are on offer in the Barcelona GP, meaning Martin is still the favourite to lift the championship trophy in his last race with Pramac and Ducati.
The Spaniard only needs to finish inside the top nine on Sunday to be crowned champion, irrespective of how Bagnaia fares in the race.
If Bagnaia fails to score an 11th win of 2024 in Barcelona, Martin can clinch the title by finishing as low as 14th place.
If both Martin and Bagnaia end up level on points on Sunday, which is possible if Bagnaia wins and Martin finishes 10th, then the title will go to the factory Ducati rider on countback (he would have 11 wins to Martin’s three).
How Jorge Martin can win the 2024 MotoGP title in Barcelona GP
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Martin
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Bagnaia
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If Martin wins
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Bagnaia’s finishing position will not matter
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If Martin finishes second
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Bagnaia’s finishing position will not matter
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If Martin finishes third
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Bagnaia’s finishing position will not matter
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If Martin finishes fourth
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Bagnaia’s finishing position will not matter
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If Martin finishes fifth
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Bagnaia’s finishing position will not matter
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If Martin finishes sixth
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Bagnaia’s finishing position will not matter
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If Martin finishes seventh
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Bagnaia’s finishing position will not matter
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If Martin finishes eighth
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Bagnaia’s finishing position will not matter
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If Martin finishes ninth
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Bagnaia’s finishing position will not matter
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If Martin finishes 10th
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Bagnaia must finish second or lower
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If Martin finishes 11th
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Bagnaia must finish second or lower
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If Martin finishes 12th
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Bagnaia must finish second or lower
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If Martin finishes 13th
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Bagnaia must finish second or lower
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If Martin finishes 14th
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Bagnaia must finish second or lower
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If Martin finishes 15th
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Bagnaia must finish third or lower
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If Martin finishes outside of the points
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Bagnaia must finish third or lower
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How Francesco Bagnaia can win the 2024 MotoGP title in Barcelona GP
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Bagnaia
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Martin
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If Bagnaia wins
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Martin must finish lower 10th or lower
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If Bagnaia finishes second
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Martin must finish 15th or lower
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If Bagnaia finishes third or lower
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He can’t be crowned champion
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