Wales, along with the rest of the UK and Europe, is in the midst of a record-breaking heatwave. After experiencing its hottest day in history on Monday, when temperatures peaked at 37.1C in Hawarden, Flintshire, the Met Office confirmed the hottest night in recorded history on Tuesday morning, with no Welsh area falling below 20C.
The severity and frequency of nationwide heatwaves is set to only increase moving forward as a result of climate change. Leading experts have warned about rising sea levels and more severe weather events as a result of the globe getting warmer.
Welsh authorities are committed to doing their bit to tackle climate change in an effort to reverse some of the damage, with the UK pledging to reduce its greenhouse-gas emissions to net zero by 2050. However, the mercury is set to continue rising all year round until emissions are cut by a sufficient level.
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Last year, the BBC and the Met Office looked at the UK’s changing climate to detail just how hot and rainy the country will become based on differing levels of global warming. This study isn’t time-dependant, but rather on the concentration of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere, whenever these points may be reached.
Its interactive tool allows users to get a sense of the issue potentially facing your local area by entering your postcode. It presents you with the most recent data (from 1991-2019), the forecast based on 2C global warming and the more extreme scenario of 4C global warming.
According to Carbon Brief, the 2C threshold will likely be exceeded between 2038 and 2072 in a modest emissions scenario, with a median year of 2052. Their highest emissions scenario could see that threshold broken between 2034 and 2052, with a median year of 2043.
With no interventions, global average temperatures that are 4C above pre-industrial levels may be reached by the turn of the 22nd century. A more severe scenario, documented by Met Office analysis, states the possibility of this extreme rise even occurring as early as the 2060s.
The hottest summer and winter day
To investigate how Wales’ climate could look in the future, a Cardiff postcode was used. The hottest summer day of the past 30 years (up until 2019) in this particular area was 32.5C.
Should global average temperatures increase 2C above pre-industrial levels (forecast for around 2050), the hottest summer day could rise to 34.7C while a rise of 4C could see temperatures climb to a whopping 39.2C. The situation is less extreme for winter, with a 2C rise not increasing the warmest winter day from its current 17.2C level, with a 4C increase seeing that reading jump to 18.7C.
The number of warm summer days
In the past 30 Cardiff summers, two days exceeded 25C per month on average. By 2050, if global temperatures do indeed rise by 2C, there could be five of these monthly days, while 12 days are predicted for a 4C rise.
The number of rainy days
There were 11 rainy days on average per month in summer across the past 30 years. That number is set to decrease by one with a 2C temperature rise before dropping further to eight days for the most extreme level of global warming.
The extent of climate change is not predicted to make an impact on the number of winter rainy days, with the forecast being roughly the same across all three scenarios.
The wettest summer and winter day
While the number of rainy days isn’t likely to change substantially, rising temperatures will make a significant impact on the wettest days Welsh residents are set to experience. On the wettest summer day of the past 30 years, 57mm of rain fell in the postcode area of choice.
A big leap to 76mm could be in the offing by 2050 while a 4C rise could see a further, albeit much smaller, increase to 77mm, which is 34% more than now. The wettest day is also set to get more extreme in the winter, going from 53mm now, to 63mm by 2050 and 76mm closer to 2100.
The likelihood of snow
According to Met Office analysis shared with BBC Panorama, snowy UK winters could become a thing of the past as a result of climate change. Temperatures below freezing during the day may be limited to parts of Scotland by the end of the century if emissions continue rising.
Is it too late to avoid dangerous levels of warming?
The world is currently 1.2C warmer than it was at the conclusion of the 19th century, with greenhouse gas emissions only ramping up over the last 50 years. However, recent promises made by major emitters, such as China and the EU, to reach net-zero emissions are a step in the right direction.
Scientists believe that warming could be limited to 2.1C if the pledges are kept. However, as evidenced above, even that amount of warming poses great danger, with further increases to 3C, 4C and 5C potentially having disastrous implications for the planet.
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